Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Excellent. Thank you for the clarification.
It never is when it comes to dealing with weather.
I expect Irene to to completely miss Florida, and South Carolina to North Carolina is the current focus, but I will stress that additional data continues to indicate an eastward trend. That being said, I'm not gonna really say that Irene is a Carolina storm, because the new guidance is suggesting Irene will now barely scrape the Carolina Coast.
What does all this mean? Well people should continue to keep an eye on Irene, but the threat level is now quite low. It may not be completely out of the question, but we are gonna have to say major changes in the steering trends for that to happen, which I doubt.
If you live in the Carolinas, the threat is certainly higher than Florida, you should be prepared, but its still several days out for you too, so don't lose sleep over a storm that has the potential to miss the U.S. all together.
Ok, this is scary, do others agree with this statement?
Link
Outflow channel to the N is in pretty good shape, slightly restricted to the south. That CDO is really trying to re-establish itself, could see the eyewall tighten up soon.
I was the one that posted the video. I have Psychic Twins stock on hold, pending the coming of winter, lol.
My track is just up the coast from Charleston, but only a 45 mile shift east would put it into North Carolina, so due to the coastline angle it's very difficult to make a narrowed-down landfall forecast right now. I do think it is a Carolinas hit though.
I think that depends on how strong Irene is when (if?) it passes to WPB's east. If it's a Cat-3, the windfield will probably be larger... but I think every storm is different in that respect and we'll have to check the updates.
ECWMF takes it into NC..not scraping the coast..that was a misprint from Angela in the above blog
wait a minute...that means my house too...ummmm :P
NO I wouldnt even listen to him.....
looks like strong shear rips the system apart. this could also turn it east before reaching the coast.
yes...and little green men from Alpha Centauri are gonna kidnap your women and sell them into the inter galactic sex trade...
Best to buy a boat :)
One day or model shifts and the threat level is now quite low...
LOL - that's what another Irene did in 1999
I agree with you Levi,
my initial prediction is a 135mph hurricane making landfall near or just south of Charleston, SC.
waiting on the gfdl 18z too
Oh I agree, but I don't see the strength building quick enough to keep it on this track and the models are using steering for a stronger storm than we currently have. The west outlier is actually predicated on current strength and steering. Won't turn as fast as current models forecast unless cat 2 with 12 to 18 hours
does a kayak count? hope my oldest comes over and brings it if this thing hits us...dag nabbit...n i just bought a pop up camper too...at least i have a place to sleep if da house goes bye bye
Do you have presslord on ignore?
Link
Perhaps a move to the NW in the short term , faster intensification than forecasted while moving away from Hispaniola sooner and then back to WNW as the Texas ridge retreats again ??.
1500 UTC
2100 UTC
I'm not talking about misprints from Angela, I'm talking about the new model consensus is now just grazing the NC coast. Of course models could shift back west or not go any further east. Either way if you live in NC, keep a close eye and begin to prepare but don't panic or lose sleep over it. I will continue to stress that with any storm unless impact is imminent.
10:02 PM GMT am 22. August 2011
It doesn't matter... I'm here now!
previous run thurs 03 UTC
if she decides to dance in charleston, there may not be a folly pier...BLAH...then where do i go fishin...
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