Hurricane Irene continues to become better organized, takes aim at Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a category 1 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale, and continues to be a U.S. landfall threat for anywhere from southern Florida to North Carolina. In the 5pm EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Irene had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Irene is moving west-northwest at 13 mph along the northern Hispaniola coastline. Estimates from radar suggest Puerto Rico has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rain from Irene so far, with the heaviest rain probably being enhanced by topography. Satellite imagery shows a new burst of intense thunderstorm activity began near the center of the hurricane this afternoon, and despite land interaction, Irene continues to become larger and better organized, with tropical storm-force (39 mph) winds extending 160 miles away from the center on the northeast side of the hurricane. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found maximum sustained winds just above 80 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 988 millibars. The strongest winds continue to be found on the north side of the storm. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening, and a NOAA Gulfstream is on its way to Irene as I type.
Figure 1. True-color image of Hurricane Irene taken at 11:20am EDT Monday August 22, 2011, shortly after Irene moved off the coast of Puerto Rico. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Track forecast for Irene
The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.
Intensity forecast for Irene
The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Fine - but are they going to be selling it; because you can't find any anywhere else after a storm.
Good Night Everyone.
Burp...
Ya'll stay safe down there... and let us know how u r faring up here...
Great...I work in the NICU.
I don't know whether it's so much of a can't afford to buy it issue as it is, if there's no power, there's nowhere to make it. Therefore if no one brings it in, how do people get it. I'm sure most people would be happy to pay for ice after a bad storm. I know I would have after Charley. Luckily, we didn't have to tho.
Hot towers are firing around it again.
where did you get that info..I got this off their page
At all times, FEMA maintains commodities, including millions of liters of water, millions of meals and hundreds of thousands of blankets, strategically located at distribution centers throughout the United States and its territories. In Puerto Rico, for example, FEMA has more than 200,000 liters of water, more than 400,000 meals, and more than 1,400 cots and blankets, that could be used, if needed, to help with response and recovery efforts.
center getting very close to land,better hope that was a jog,or......... she cuts across hisp and gores into florida as a 70 mph tropical storm as forecast 10days ago???????? lolololol
Yeah, that is what I was illustrating to a fellow blogger earlier. That these findings would not be incorporated into the forecast track until 5am advisory.
I imagine when it comes in it'll be posted here by somebody.
Of course. Are you in the Bahamas now? If you are what are you plans?
Current DOOMcon Status - ELEVATED
Also Kman 280 is WNW, 270 is West.
Can you answer a stupid question for me. IF the hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles and the NE quadrant is the worst part of the storm which we should get hit with if it passes south and west of us within 43 miles now (as per storm carib). How long will the hurricane force winds last if it continues travelling at its same speed (12 MPH) is my math correct that it could last 7.5 hours???
i have been filling empty juice jugs, soda bottles, etc with water all day and putting them in my freezer, will continue to do so until this is over... keeps my stuff from spoiling and when it does melt, we have extra water...just saying...people do have time to prepare if they do it before they are told to evacuate
the witching hour
I would just say if I was living in Florida, I wouldn't turn my back on Irene just yet!
No, I live on Grand Cayman
If you dont have to be there when it does. Dont.
A few days inconvience is better than the "other". Heat and Misery aint far behind after the winds and rains swirl away.
Have a plan and work it if your times called.
Perhaps the reason we are seeing warming cloud tops at this time and the westward jog or wobble? Could have implications on the future track then...
Selected Dropsonde locations from Gonzo and the Air Force plane.
700/500mb heights indicated.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 45SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.
hopefully the wind field won't expand a lot in next 24 hours
if above verifies, we would be outside the radius of 64 knot sustained
hope springs eternal
Greenville will still flood, but not Floyd bad. Dennis was the reason that Floyd was so bad.
It will be bad for all of ENC and alot of homes on the OBX will go into the ocean with a Cat 3/4 storm surge.
Waters are shallow yes.
But the surge will tend to 'flow' around the small islands.
25' sounds high to me for the Bahamas.
???
Azores should be on high alert!
I really dont think that is true..aint no way FEMA would make people prove they cant afford water..
Never even thought about or heard that suggestion before. Was just not saying people don't have time to prepare, just that ice is hard to come by with no power...
LOL...its been like "here comes the eye" when it comes to Irene for like the last 1000 posts....LOL
Glad to hear it :-)
Here is SE LA we purchased it after storms. Lots of ice plants here because it is a fishing community. The ice trucks would pull up in the grocery store parking lot and we just all stood in line and bought it.
Yeah but that is in response to a question asked a 1/2 hour ago.. I'm just that many pages back trying to catch up.
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