Texas drought could last 9 years; Ophelia a Cat 3; Cat 4 Nalgae nears Philippines
The devastating Texas drought that has already cost over $5 billion could continue for nine more years, predicted Texas State Climatologist John Nielson-Gammon in an interview with Reuters yesterday. "It is possible that we could be looking at another of these multi-year droughts like we saw in the 1950s, and like the tree rings have shown that the state has experienced over the last several centuries," Nielson-Gammon said. Drought statistics released yesterday by the U.S. Drought Monitor showed that over 96% of Texas is experiencing the two worst categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. The past 12 months have been the driest one-year period on record in Texas. The main blame for this year's drought can be put on La Niña, the cooling of equatorial Pacific waters that deflects the jet stream and takes rain-bearing low pressure system away from Texas. Other large-scale atmospheric/oceanic patterns called the Pacfic Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) have also favored dry conditions for Texas this year. When the AMO brings warm ocean temperatures to the North Atlantic, as it has since 1995, Texas is typically dry. Texas also tends to be dry when the PDO brings cool ocean temperatures to the coastal North Pacific next to North America. This has been the case since 2007 (except for late 2009 and early 2010.) In a post earlier this month in his excellent blog, Climate Abyss, Nielson-Gammon has this to say about the influence of global warming on the 2011 drought:
Precipitation: The balance of evidence does not support the assertion that the rainfall deficit since October 2010 was made larger or more likely by global warming.
Temperature: Compared to long-term averages of summer temperature,the rainfall deficit accounted for about 4°F of excess heat and global warming accounted for about 1°F of excess heat. Warmer temperatures lead to greater water demand, faster evaporation, and greater drying-out of potential fuels for fire. Thus, the impacts of the drought were enhanced by global warming, much of which has been caused by man.
Figure 1. This week's Drought Monitor showed that over 96% of Texas was experiencing the two worst categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.
High fire danger for Texas today
Strong winds, temperatures in the 90s, and relative humidities in the 15 - 25% range will bring critical fire conditions today to Texas in the Austin-San Antonio region today, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Austin set a record high for the date yesterday, when the mercury climbed to 99°. Dry weather will dominate Texas for the coming week, but an increasing flow of moist air off the Gulf of Mexico next weekend may allow for a little drought relief 7 - 10 days from now. Texas' hurricane season is pretty much over; it is rare for tropical storms to affect Texas this late in the season. There is the potential the state could get moisture from an Eastern Pacific tropical storm, but there are probably only going to be 1 - 3 more storms in the Eastern Pacific this year, since activity in the basin is sharply lower during La Niña events.
Ophelia strengthens into the season's fourth hurricane
Hurricane Ophelia has strengthened into an respectable Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, making it the season's fourth hurricane and third major hurricane. The arrival of the season's fourth hurricane on September 29 is a week later than the average date for the season's fourth hurricane, which is September 21. This is a remarkably late date for a season boasting the 2nd greatest number of named storms ever recorded before October (sixteen). Typically, over 60% of all named storms intensify into hurricanes; this year, the percentage has been only 25%. This bizarre combination of a near-record number of named storms but only four hurricanes has led to a near-average year for total destructive potential, as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). We are about 7% above average for ACE for this point in the season, according to stats compiled by Dr. Ryan Maue. The combination of near-record warm sea surface temperatures but exceptionally dry, stable air over the tropical Atlantic responsible for this year's odd hurricane season shows no signs of changing over the next few weeks. However, it's worth pointing out that the ocean regions north of 20°N latitude where Ophelia and Philippe are positioned have near-normal levels of atmospheric stability and dry air.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ophelia.
Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia continues to intensify. The hurricane has a prominent eye, good upper-level outflow, and solid lower-level spiral banding. Moderate wind shear due to upper-level west-southwesterly winds is slowing intensification, and shear is expected to remain moderate through Sunday. The models agree that Ophelia will track far enough to the east of Bermuda that the island should see sustained winds below 45 mph, since it will be on the weak (left) side of the storm. The 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 30% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and just a 1% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. Ophelia's closest approach to the island will be late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Ophelia is likely to bring high winds and heavy rains to Southeast Newfoundland Monday, though the models have been trending towards keeping Ophelia farther offshore from Newfoundland in their recent runs. The 11 am wind probability forecast for Cape Race, Newfoundland gave it a 36% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 1% chance of hurricane force winds.
Tropical Storm Philippe
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe continues to struggle against dry air and wind shear. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with little heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear is expected to increase to a very high 30 - 40 knots Saturday through Monday, thanks to the upper-level outflow from Ophelia. This shear may be high enough to destroy Philippe by Monday, though most of the models predict Philippe will survive the shear for the next five days. In the event Philippe does survive the shear, the storm could penetrate far enough west that Bermuda might need to be concerned with it, since Philippe will be forced almost due west by a strong ridge of high pressure early next week. There is even a small chance (perhaps 5%) that Philippe could make a comeback from Ophelia's high shear and affect the U.S. East Coast or Bahama Islands late next week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for a new tropical storm to form in the coming seven days. The large-scale environment over the Atlantic currently favors sinking air, due to the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This situation will likely last well into next week, and will discourage formation of new tropical storms. The MJO is a 30 - 60 day cycle of thunderstorm activity that affects the tropics.
Figure 3. Satellite-predicted rainfall amounts for the 24-hour period ending at 2 am EDT Saturday October 1, 2011, for Typhoon Nalgae. The typhoon is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain over Northern Luzon in the Philippines. This is probably an underestimate, given Nalgae's recent rapid intensification from Cat 2 to Cat 4. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Typhoon Nesat drenching Vietnam; Category 4 Typhoon Nalgae drenching the Philippines
Typhoon Nesat hit Vietnam today near Hanoi as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines Monday as a powerful Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds, leaving 43 people dead and 30 missing. The Philippines has a very bad case of deja-vu today, with Typhoon Nalgae already beginning to dump heavy rains on the main island of Luzon. Nalgae is expected to follow a track almost exactly the same as Nesat's, passing over Luzon just to the north of the capital of Manila. Nalgae is expected to maintain its Category 4 strength until landfall, and will likely bring at least 4 - 8 inches of rain to Northern Luzon. While this may not be as wet a storm as Nesat, Nalgae's rains will be falling on soils already saturated from Nesat's heavy rains, and the potential exists for high loss of life due to extreme flooding and mudslides. Wind damage is also a huge concern; Nagae's 135 mph winds are capable of causing widespread destruction on Luzon.
Jeff Masters
County Road 172 sliding into the ditch as a result of the prolonged drought.
Reader Comments
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Can't believe Ophelia made it to Cat 3!
Texas managed to pick up some rains, in some areas, yesterday. We received a nice soaking around the Houston area. While I received about 3/4", at my house, some areas probably picked up more and some areas probably got less. I was just reading an article that predicts the Texas drought will continue and probably for several more years to come. The past 12 moths have already proven to be the driest 12 months on record, for Texas. This 12 month period even exceeds the worst 12 month period of Texas's drought of the 1950s, if I read the article correctly.
Link
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
NALGAE (QUIEL) will continue to move generally westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") throughout the forecast period...with a decrease in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the small core of the typhoon will make landfall along Cagayan-Isabela Border on or before noontime Saturday...and cross Northern Luzon in the afternoon through the early evening. NALGAE will move out of Northern Luzon via Ilocos Sur Sunday evening...and will be over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) Sunday morning. By early Monday, NALGAE will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), on its way to Hainan Island, Southern China.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 18 hours, before making landfall over Northern Luzon. NALGAE is now a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
Credit Typhoon2000.com.ph
The 4 southern line-segments represent HurricaneOphelia's path,
the northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 30Sept_12pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 38.940n74.864w-WWD is the endpoint of the 30Sept_6amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline blob at 41.071n71.836w-MTP is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 30Sept_12amGMT*mapping.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
H.Ophelia's travel-speed was 10.5mph(16.9k/h) on a heading of 348.4degrees(NNW)
(348.75degrees is midway between NNW and N)
H.Ophelia was headed toward passing ~5.5miles(8.9kilometres) west of Bermuda ~2days12hours from now
Copy&paste 41.071n71.836w-mtp, 38.940n74.864w-wwd, 20.3n61.4w-20.9n61.9w, 20.9n61.9w-21.5n62.2w, 21.5n62.2w-22.0n62.5w, 22.0n62.5w-22.9n62.7w, bda, 22.0n62.5w-32.281n64.967w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 30Sept_6amGMT
* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON NALGAE (T1119)
21:00 PM JST September 30 2011
================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nalgae (940 hPa) located at 17.5N 125.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5
Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
190 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 17.2N 119.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 17.3N 115.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.4N 111.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TYPHOON QUIEL (NALGAE)
5:00 PM PhST September 30 2011
=============================
Typhoon "QUIEL" has accelerated as it threatens Cagayan area
Signal Warnings
==============
Signal Warnings #3
-----------------
Luzon Region
------------
1. Cagayan
2. Isabela
Signal Warnings #2
-----------------
Luzon Region
------------
1. Northern Aurora
2. Quirino
3. Ifugao
4. Mt. Province
5. Kalinga
6. Apayao
7. Calayan Group of Islands
8. Babuyan Group of Islands
Signal Warning #1
----------------
Luzon Region
------------
1. Rest of Aurora
2. Nueva Vizcaya
3. Pangasinan
4. Benguet
5. La Union
6. Ilocos Norte
7. Ilocos Sur
8. Abra
Additional Information
=====================
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.
Typhoon "Quiel" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and will bring scattered to widespread rains over Southern Luzon and Western Visayas.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15 - 25 mm per hour within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Not that I'm complaining. Gives us something to watch without having to run for cover every few weeks.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TYPHOON QUIEL (NALGAE)
11:00 PM PhST September 30 2011
=============================
Typhoon "QUIEL" has intensified further and seriously threatens Cagayan-Isabela as it moves closer.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 340 kms East of Tuguegarao City
Coordinates: 17.3%uFFFDN, 125.3%uFFFDE
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
Gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: Forecast to move West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday evening:
120 kms West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
Sunday evening:
720 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Luzon Island
Cagayan
Isabela
Northern Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Vizcaya
Ifugao
Mt. Province
Kalinga
Apayao
Abra
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Luzon Island
Rest of Aurora
Nueva Ecija
Pangasinan
Benguet
La Union
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Calayan Group of Is.
Babuyan Group of Is.
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Luzon Island
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island
Bulacan
Pampanga
Tarlac
Zambales
Batanes
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.
Typhoon "Quiel" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and will bring scattered to widespread rains over Southern Luzon and Western Visayas.
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15 - 25 mm per hour within the 500 km diameter of the Typhoon.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Light rain showers today in Providenciales,
and I am happy that Ophelia is far away
and they are not related to that storm.
Ophelia got over her teenage gawkiness (sheer and dry air) and has blossomed into a lovely Cat 3 lady. ;)
Now, hopefully she'll mind her manners and steer clear of Bermuda, then later, play nice in Canada.
GFS is hinting at something in 12-14 days, but has been on again off again about it for several days, same in NW Carribean
What do you call a frenchman with sandals on? Philippe Phloppe bwhah
Dr Masters - I've noticed in your posts recently that you've been spelling out different abbreviations (like ACE in this one) which is really useful for weather dummies lke me. Do you have, and if not, is it worth having, a 'glossary' on this site for abbreviations, so that we can refer to that rather than you having to spell out all the time, which might get annoying to the weather non-dummies? Immediate candidates would be the abberviations of all the different organizations that predict storm tracks.
As weird as this season has been, I am going to give her an "atta girl" and go for it! Cat 4? Why not! LOL
Weather Station
WEST BATON ROUGE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER, Port Allen
Elevation
30 ft
Station Select
Clear
Temperature
75.6 F
Feels Like 78 F
Winds NW 14
Ophelia
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Friday, September 30th, with Video
Really wasn't expecting Ophelia to get so organized. XD
Cannot do much about all that rain with wind on top of it over already soaked terrain.
A disaster in the making, I fear.
In his most excellent blog entry, Nielson-Gammon wrote the following: "If a stable climate is desirable, which seems to be the prevailing consensus, global warming on Texas had a net beneficial effect in the 20th century, by counteracting cooling from other mechanisms. However, none of the viable cooling mechanisms are sustainable, so warmer temperatures in Texas are extremely likely in the future, and based on temperatures in the first eleven years of the 21st century, those days are already here."
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2011 Time : 161500 UTC
Lat : 23:40:46 N Lon : 62:47:31 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 950.9mb/109.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.0 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : +10.3C Cloud Region Temp : -64.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 112km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.9 degrees
Nothing new there...its always on.
Wouldn't be wise to listen to those flags.
That's the spirit Neo :)
Correlation between precipitation and the AMO index:
ya it is off now anways lol. 6.1 raw now.
My professor John Nielsen-Gammon actually has a really good write-up on the subject if you're interested in reading it.
The Drought of Record was made to be broken
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