Bitter cold -65°F temperatures hit Alaska

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 05:13 PM GMT am 30. Januar 2012

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If you're wondering who's getting all the cold air the lower 48 states is missing during this non-winter of 2012, the answer during the past week has been Alaska. Our 49th state is used to intense winter cold, but not like what they've experienced during the past week. Friday night and Saturday night, temperatures plummeted to -50°F and -51°F in Fairbanks, marking the first time since 1999 the city had seen back-to-back minus fifty nights. The low temperature so far today at the Fairbanks International Airport has been -44°F, giving the city sixteen days of -40°F temperatures so far this month. Since 1906, there have only been three years (1906, 1934, and 1971) with more 40 below days during the month of January. At forty below zero, the air is so cold that the water vapor condenses out into ice crystals, which float in the air creating a low-visibility fog. A large area of Alaska experienced bitter cold temperatures of -50 to -65°F Sunday morning:

FORT YUKON CO-OP..............65 BELOW
KANDIK RIVER CO-OP............64 BELOW
FORT YUKON AIRPORT..........62 BELOW*
BETTLES.................................60 BELOW**
HUSLIA.....................................60 BELOW
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS............60 BELOW
NORTH POLE/WOODSMOKE....60 BELOW
CHICKEN CO-OP.....................59 BELOW
GALENA AIRPORT....................58 BELOW
TANANA...................................58 BELOW
CIRCLE HOT SPRINGS..........58 BELOW
DELTA 20 SE CO-OP...............58 BELOW
COLDFOOT................................57 BELOW
EAGLE CO-OP.........................57 BELOW
KALTAG...................................56 BELOW
GOLDSTREAM CREEK..........55 BELOW
ARCTIC VILLAGE..................54 BELOW
NENANA..................................54 BELOW
SALCHA..................................54 BELOW
FAIRBANKS AIRPORT..............51 BELOW
DELTA JUNCTION/FT GREELY......50 BELOW
LAKE MINCHUMINA.................50 BELOW
MCGRATH.................................50 BELOW

*TIED DAILY RECORD LOW OF 62 BELOW SET IN 1909
**EXCEEDS DAILY RECORD LOW OF 58 BELOW SET IN 1989

The cold snap is expected to continue through mid-week, with more -65°F temperatures possible in the interior valleys north of Fairbanks. Warmer air is expected to arrive state-wide by Thursday.


Figure 1. It's a tradition! Photo taken Sunday, January 29, 2012, by one of our more adventurous wunderphotographers. Image credit: wunderphotographer TerezkaSunshine.

All-time U.S. low temperature record threatened?
The coldest temperature ever recorded in the U.S. was a -80°F (-62.2°C) reading from Prospect Creek, AK (about 180 miles north of Fairbanks) on January 23, 1971. A weather station just a few miles from Prospect Creek, the Jim River DOT site, appears to have recorded a low temperature between -78°F and -79°F Saturday morning (January 28, 2012), shortly before the weather station lost power. Keeping the power going at -70 is very tough, and it is not a surprise to see that the station lost power during this extraordinary cold snap. Power just returned this morning to the site, where the temperature was -66°F at 7 am AKST. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt is corresponding with Alaska's state climatologist to get more information on whether the data during the power outage will be recoverable, and how reliable these near-record low temperatures might be.

Jeff Masters

54°F Below (alaskajuliens)
This capture was shot just outside of North Pole , Alaska. It was a very cold and slow night for aurora hunting. One of these days I will learn to leave earlier in the evening.
54°F Below
SunDog (katy99780)
Looking due south down a side road, not too long after noon. Chilly night last night, down to -51.
SunDog
Dangerous Temps (alaskajuliens)
This was shot at 0345 on 29, Jan. It was painfully cold.
Dangerous Temps

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331. sunlinepr
02:39 AM GMT am 01. Februar 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
330. sunlinepr
02:25 AM GMT am 01. Februar 2012
Link

Published: January 31st, 2012 at 09:43 AM EDT By Enenews
Rare quake hits near troubled Illinois nuke plant releasing radioactive steam — “That’s right, she said earthquake” (VIDEO)

Title: Magnitude 2.4 – ILLINOIS
Source: USGS
Date: January 30, 2012 at 09:54:43 PM
Location: 42.340°N, 88.243°W

Title: Earthquake rattles northern suburbs, parts of Wis.
Source: ABC 7
Date: Jan 31, 2012 at 07:50 AM CT

If you live in the north or northwest suburbs and felt the ground move Monday night, you were not dreaming. A small earthquake centered near northwest suburban McHenry hit just before 10 p.m.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Earthquake Information Center, the 2.4-magnitude earthquake hit at 9:54 p.m. about two miles east of McHenry, Ill.

The earthquake was given an intensity rating of 3, which means it was weak. Still, more than 300 people reported on the USGS website that they felt it.

Experts say the earthquake was felt from southeast Wisconsin to northern Illinois to northwest Indiana. [...]

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
329. sunlinepr
02:19 AM GMT am 01. Februar 2012
Published: January 31st, 2012 at 12:20 AM EDT |By Enenews Admin

Report: “High level radiation cloud” detected passing over New Zealand city — Peaks reached an “incredible” 1.89 microSv/h

Source: Peter Daley
Date: 29th January 2012

I have been in contact with a person In New Zealand who just sent me information of a detection of a high level radiation cloud passing over Dunedin New Zealand. You will find a copy of his email correspondence below. This chart is the recorded background radiation level during this event. Visual observation saw peaks reach an incredible 1.89 uS/Hr !

Read complete report.....[...] Link




Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9648
328. Skyepony (Mod)
08:29 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Winds got this controlled burn at KSC stoked up.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36048
327. Skyepony (Mod)
08:20 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
TRMM pass of 92S, click pic to play.




Quoting SPLbeater:


lol.

The only bad thing about bein homeschooled is i dont ave any friends..


Join or start a co-op, look on Yahoo. There's over 700 families in one of our local homeschool online groups. Somewhere around 20% of kids in Brevard County are homeschooled. People post what is going on & where everyone is meeting up~ parks, skating, Ripley's Believe it or Not. Go, find friends & learn. Saw Arc Attack this morning. Part of a group of shows that are put on at the local college performance center. The county has been busing public school kids to all of the half dozen shows so far this year but they weren't there today. Really informative & fun show on electricity. The only reason I can think they were missing was that part on Tesla & the Tesla Coil. They don't teach about Tesla in the public schools here anymore, he's completely left out.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36048
326. Xeloi
08:11 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


Hey, at least you mentioned that, at least theoretically.

I couldn't even get a physicist to admit that much in the past.


I'll leave it alone for the fact it's a weather forum and all, its just cosmology is filled with a lot of people making the fallacy of mixing up theory with facts, and then citing one theory as "proof" of another theory, etc.


I am very willing to believe that cosmology is a mess right now. There are many astrophysicists working both within the current paradigm and outside it, trying to find a more palatable solution, all the while we gather more and more observations. At some point, some person probably far more clever than me will crack it and we can move on. And I say this being well-acquainted with one of the people who won the Nobel prize this time around for dark energy.
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
325. RTSplayer
06:12 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
You are certainly entitled to your own belief, but what you stated is far too close to that of the ignorant ancients who simply ascribed a supernatural cause to everything they saw and experienced because they lacked the scientific knowledge to figure it out. Thunder was an angry god muttering; rain was the god crying; famine was the god's punishment; and so on. No, looking at something intricate and complex in the natural world and saying, "I don't understand it, so it must be The Great Being In The Sky who did it" isn't a type of logic with which I'm comfortable. ;-)


Ontology and Physics are two different things.

The Biblical philosophy was supposed to be that God's work was evident in creation. That creation pointed to God. It was never meant to be an excuse to stop critical thinking.

What I'm looking for from physics is a matrix of laws and principles that is actually consistent from top to bottom, without circular reasoning.

The existing paradigm does not accomplish that in the least.

Member Since: Januar 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1494
324. hydrus
05:29 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
You are certainly entitled to your own belief, but what you stated is far too close to that of the ignorant ancients who simply ascribed a supernatural cause to everything they saw and experienced because they lacked the scientific knowledge to figure it out. Thunder was an angry god muttering; rain was the god crying; famine was the god's punishment; and so on. No, looking at something intricate and complex in the natural world and saying, "I don't understand it, so it must be The Great Being In The Sky who did it" isn't a type of logic with which I'm comfortable. ;-)
Lol..You sound like a grouchy old curmudgeon Nea..But your post is true..Back then, if they did not understand an act or event of nature, it must have been something supernatural or a God. It is however possible all things happen and exist because of God or a form of super-intelligence...I think it was Ovid that said" Man creates Gods by the dozen, but cannot even make a worm..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19497
323. Neapolitan
05:11 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting JNCali:
We all (humans) have an innate desire to believe in something, be it science(observation based on our physical senses) or spiritual, and/or a combination of the two... Personally, I believe that God created the universe and stuck the Earth with humans on it in the middle of it, so that humans would be surrounded by a creation that is so mind boggling that we couldn't help but acknowledge that He exists and that He's way much smarter and powerful than anything in creation. Most of us on the blog really appreciate the intricacies of the weather and we still only have a limited understanding of all the influences that go into that. Let alone the inner workings of a star?!
Man's quest for knowledge can be noble and continues to be necessary to solve the challenges we face on this planet. But I believe that the most important quest for all of us is to know the Creator of all things knowable. -imho
You are certainly entitled to your own belief, but what you stated is far too close to that of the ignorant ancients who simply ascribed a supernatural cause to everything they saw and experienced because they lacked the scientific knowledge to figure it out. Thunder was an angry god muttering; rain was the god crying; famine was the god's punishment; and so on. No, looking at something intricate and complex in the natural world and saying, "I don't understand it, so it must be The Great Being In The Sky who did it" isn't a type of logic with which I'm comfortable. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
322. RTSplayer
05:08 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting BeCoolOrBeCastOut:


LOL, you're calling his whole profession ridiculous? I think I'm gonna roll with the dude that has the doctorate in astrophysics on this one.


No, no.

I think you missed the point entirely.

I wasn't making fun of anyone's profession.

Even professionals become blinded by the framework in which they exist. Look at wall street and the economists who were doing all the wrong things 4 or 5 years ago, and so forth. They all had degrees in economics, but they helped wreck the system.

Ok, just take Steve Jobs and Apple.

Why didn't some guy with a degree make Apple?

Why didn't some guy with a degree make Facebook?

It's called paradigm:

Entire fields of endeavour just stuck in a regime and completely failing to realize the real nature of the world around them, as well as the real applications of existing knowledge.

Steve Jobs was like, "Hey everyone else, stay here and do the same old crap if you like, I'll go start the next era in human history."

All the guys with degrees were too busy being yes men, or taking tests or writing their thesis, so that they could not be bothered with inventing the next revolution: Blind.
Member Since: Januar 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1494
321. JNCali
04:33 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting BeCoolOrBeCastOut:


LOL, you're calling his whole profession ridiculous? I think I'm gonna roll with the dude that has the doctorate in astrophysics on this one.
We all (humans) have an innate desire to believe in something, be it science(observation based on our physical senses) or spiritual, and/or a combination of the two... Personally, I believe that God created the universe and stuck the Earth with humans on it in the middle of it, so that humans would be surrounded by a creation that is so mind boggling that we couldn't help but acknowledge that He exists and that He's way much smarter and powerful than anything in creation. Most of us on the blog really appreciate the intricacies of the weather and we still only have a limited understanding of all the influences that go into that. Let alone the inner workings of a star?!
Man's quest for knowledge can be noble and continues to be necessary to solve the challenges we face on this planet. But I believe that the most important quest for all of us is to know the Creator of all things knowable. -imho
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032
320. yqt1001
04:17 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


smoking is not healthy.


Studies show that living is not healthy.

[/joke about how studies say that everything is unhealthy]

Now yes, smoking is not healthy, and I do not wish to take part in it. But I believe he was implying something else.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
319. SPLbeater
04:13 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
Do more than smoking son, it's where boys become men and girls become women....


smoking is not healthy.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
318. RTSplayer
04:13 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting Xeloi:


You never get Hydrogen burning in the outer layers of stars. It's possible that you can get a thin layer of hydrogen burning just outside the core of a helium burning star, which does make some small contribution to the total energy output of the star, and thus its size. This is known as the "shell burning" stage -- I kind of skipped it in my earlier explanation for brevity. In fact, stars that are creating iron in their cores can have multiple shells where different fusion processes are occurring -- think an onion.


Hey, at least you mentioned that, at least theoretically.

I couldn't even get a physicist to admit that much in the past.


I'll leave it alone for the fact it's a weather forum and all, its just cosmology is filled with a lot of people making the fallacy of mixing up theory with facts, and then citing one theory as "proof" of another theory, etc.
Member Since: Januar 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1494
317. RitaEvac
04:08 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Do more than smoking son, it's where boys become men and girls become women....
Member Since: Juli 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
316. Xeloi
04:08 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


I know all that, but that's all model and theory.


Nobody has ever been inside a Star to actually measure the composition and say, "Oh yeah, there's exactly this much hydrogen, exactly that much helium, exactly that much Carbon, etc," plus it would really vary for every star anyway.

The compositions we know for the Sun are for the photosphere, and even there the Sun already has heavier elements, nearly a percent of nitrogen and Carbon, with some Oxygen and Iron present too.

The sun's emission spectra is caused by the photosphere, and has virtually nothing to do with the internal dynamics.

So basicly, everything we "know" about the Sun comes from the photosphere, and the rest is just mathematics that anyone with a calculator could do, but based on theory and assumptions that can't actually be tested, because any instrument sent to the Sun to actually take a sample of the core, or observe reactions would be destroyed.

Anyone could say, "Well, this is how much energy is made by the P-P chain, and this is how much we know the sun makes, some um, divide moles by the net energy and you get what amount of Hydrogen is being fused per second, etc."

But that's operating under the assumption that the core is actually fusing hydrogen.

Since nobody has been there, nobody actually knows.

The center is already 20 times as dense as iron, so it could be anything. It could already be lead or neutronium or some other exotic state of matter.



Stellar fusion was proposed as a theory to explain how the stars could live for long life times, since it was recognized that chemistry was not sufficient.


But to take the "age" of stars and then cite that as a proof or evidence of the exact nature of reactions in a star then becomes circular reasoning.

i.e.

A) How do stars burn so long?

Well, they work on Fusion.

B) How do you know they are doing fusion?

Well, because they burn so long.


Sorry, that might work in what passes for modern physics, but it's ridiculous.


Believe it or not, there actually are other reactions energy sources known in the universe which could maintain the Sun's output for hundreds or even thousands of times longer than fusion.

anti-matter
Zero Point
Alternate Dimensions
Wormholes
White Holes

One or more or any number of these may or may not exist in the core of Stars, and we'd have no way to prove or disprove their existence, because all our instruments would be destroyed before they can get close enough to take a deep enough sample.

Even with the law of parsimony, the White Hole possibility is no more complicated than the standard model. Heck it's actually simpler.


Take the White Hole, the idea of the reverse of a black hole, and think about it.

How would you prove that a White Hole is actually a White Hole over human time scales of one life span, and assuming it has an apparent mass equal to the Sun and an luminosity equal to the Sun? It need not be a runaway white hole, it could be in equilibrium, or it could even be dying, but you wouldn't know any of that initially. So how would you prove it is or is not?

How would you prove where the energy comes from, and how would you prove what types of matter and energy should or should not come out of a white hole? Will it be random matter and energy of all types? Or will it be the simplest forms of matter: almost pure hydrogen and Helium, like the composition of the Sun's photosphere.



Do you see how thinking outside the box exposes just how little is actually known in the standard model, and just how much is assumed?

Well, we assume it's hydrogen fusion because, well, what else would it be?

100 years later, we still dont understand cosmology at all. We've got a jillion competing and conflicting observations and theories: dark matter, dark energy, branes, MOND, Quintessence, parallel universes, 10 to 26 dimensions of space-time...and now I think they're up to "Multiple Multi-verses".

The funny thing is, this is supposedly "science" and yet almost none of it is falsifiable. It's practically religion.


I have a few bones to pick with this. First of all, asteroseismology allows us to look into the center of stars, so we have a really good idea of what is going on in the interior of stars. They have done tests of hydrogen fusion both in laboratories and with nuclear weapons -- the processes and energy output are exactly as predicted. Moreover, if there were significant amounts of exotic materials on their, we would see them. We don't. If there were powerful, exotic methods of producing energy -- and there probably are, I'm not denying that -- but if they fueled stars, it would violate Ockham's Razor: if you have a simple explanation that seems to work (nuclear fusion), that's probably what is going on. Without additional observations that break the current theory, there's no reason to invoke anything more exotic.

Furthermore, the universe is full of things call global clusters. A global cluster is a dense cluster of stars where almost all the stars formed at about the same time. Therefore, what we see when we look at an individual star cluster is a snapshot in time of the lifetime of a star. By looking at many global clusters -- we know of thousands -- it's fairly trivial to reconstruct the life cycle of stars. Stars are created, they age, and they die. If stars lived as long as you postulated..... we wouldn't see them die!

The white hole explanation you provide doesn't really work. Why would we never see a naked white hole? Why does large amount of matter collect in white holes? IF they are giving off energy, you would expect matter to be forced away, without ever collecting. Do white holes only form where density is high enough? I suppose it's possible.... but then where do neutron stars come from? White dwarfs? Supernova? For a "model" to become accepted, it has to explain all observed phenomena. White holes don't. Fusion does. It may still not be right, so I can't say Q.E.D., but it's pretty damned airtight.

I'm as open-minded an astrophysicist as you'll ever encounter, with a strong familiarity with the philosophy of science, so I understand the concerns you are expressing and able to overlook your aggression. I too hate all this dark matter and dark energy and X number of collapsed dimensions. I personally detest this "science"... but rather than just complaining loudly, I'm actually looking into trying to construct an alternative... which might be a better use of your energy than ranting/trolling :).
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
315. SPLbeater
04:06 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


Damn, that is the life. Would love to do that, oh well, only 2 more years of high school anyways. :P


lol. i have seen high school, and im glad im not part of all those teens...few of them i saw SMOKING. pants saggin, all that mess, lol.

The only bad thing about bein homeschooled is i dont ave any friends..
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
313. yqt1001
03:57 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


my homeschool is on my computer, and doenst take long on regular days. got a playlist of bout 75 pop songs i listen to while working.


Damn, that is the life. Would love to do that, oh well, only 2 more years of high school anyways. :P
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
312. SPLbeater
03:54 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:



.lol .taht od ot gniog erew uoy wenk I
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
311. Xeloi
03:51 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting percylives:


Ah, an astrophysicist, great. Excellent explanation.

I have to ask to make sure I don't make the mistake again.

Does the hydrogen burning in the outer layers of the star also act to increase the physical size of the star as I stated in #245 or am I out in another universe with that explanation? Thanks.


You never get Hydrogen burning in the outer layers of stars. It's possible that you can get a thin layer of hydrogen burning just outside the core of a helium burning star, which does make some small contribution to the total energy output of the star, and thus its size. This is known as the "shell burning" stage -- I kind of skipped it in my earlier explanation for brevity. In fact, stars that are creating iron in their cores can have multiple shells where different fusion processes are occurring -- think an onion.
Member Since: September 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
310. RitaEvac
03:49 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


ok if this is a question concernin my grammar and spelling, not ansering lol. i dont spell corect cuz im layed back. but i CAN spell and put proper grammar.


Meteorlologist...maybe Storm chaser:) i hope
Member Since: Juli 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
309. SPLbeater
03:42 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


How's homeschooling anyways?

I was home schooled for a bit a year ago, but it wasn't long enough to evaluate the social downsides. Also, it wasn't my parents who taught me. A teacher came to my house because I couldn't go to school. I remember that month or so of homeschooling as one of the worst and best moments of my life, and I am who I am today because of that experience.


my homeschool is on my computer, and doenst take long on regular days. got a playlist of bout 75 pop songs i listen to while working.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
308. SPLbeater
03:40 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


What kind of job you think you'll have when you are a grown up?


ok if this is a question concernin my grammar and spelling, not ansering lol. i dont spell corect cuz im layed back. but i CAN spell and put proper grammar.


Meteorlologist...maybe Storm chaser:) i hope
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
307. SPLbeater
03:39 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Now..Iggy looks nice:)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
306. Neapolitan
03:38 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I posted this yesterday, this is not too far from my house. It is amazing that just around Austin and southward and eastward we have received over 10 inches of rain the past 2 or 3 months which has helped big time but areas not very far west of Austin have received little rain during this time and not much rain the past 17 months. The difference in 30 to 50 miles can be huge when it comes to rain, I do know the areas west of Austin are much dryer than areas east.

Drought May Cause Shutdown of Texas Rice Production

Although recent rains have put a dent in the Texas drought, a day of reckoning looms for the state’s long-grain rice growers, who pump millions into the economy in Southeast Texas each year and account for about 5 percent of America’s rice production. Come March 1, if there is less than 850,000 acre-feet of water in reservoirs along the Lower Colorado River, water managers will be forced to take the unprecedented step of withholding water from agricultural users, which will mean severe cuts to Texas rice production this year.

According to Bob Rose, chief meteorologist with the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), it’s unlikely that enough rain will fall between now and March 1 to reach the 850,000 acre-feet threshold that was established by a recent agreement between the authority and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. An acre-foot is the amount of water required to cover one acre of land to a depth of one foot, and it amounts to about 326,000 gallons.

As of January 30, the highland lakes that serve as the area’s reservoirs held about 758,000 acre-feet.

"This is going to be a huge, huge deal," Rose said during a presentation at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in New Orleans. "What’s going to happen is that there will be no water for agriculture in Texas this year."

Driving the Lower Colorado River Authority’s decision-making is the need to ensure there is enough water to meet the demand from Austin, the rapidly growing state capital that is completely reliant on water from the Lower Colorado River, as well as other municipalities and users, such as electric utilities that need water to run power plants.


Full article here.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
305. Patrap
03:38 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
GOM IR Loop

..click image for Loop






Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125449
304. Patrap
03:36 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
.."if we are not capable of that, then the computer"..
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125449
303. yqt1001
03:34 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
Just had a nice Cinnamon n Raisin biscut from hardees.....YUM.

Be round to chat in few mins, got some schewl to do:)


How's homeschooling anyways?

I was home schooled for a bit a year ago, but it wasn't long enough to evaluate the social downsides. Also, it wasn't my parents who taught me. A teacher came to my house because I couldn't go to school. I remember that month or so of homeschooling as one of the worst and best moments of my life, and I am who I am today because of that experience.
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
302. bohonkweatherman
03:28 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Texas town relying on tanker trucks for water
Wells nearly run dry amid drought
I posted this yesterday, this is not too far from my house. It is amazing that just around Austin and southward and eastward we have received over 10 inches of rain the past 2 or 3 months which has helped big time but areas not very far west of Austin have received little rain during this time and not much rain the past 17 months. The difference in 30 to 50 miles can be huge when it comes to rain, I do know the areas west of Austin are much dryer than areas east.
Member Since: Juli 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
301. RitaEvac
03:23 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
Just had a nice Cinnamon n Raisin biscut from hardees.....YUM.

Be round to chat in few mins, got some schewl to do:)


What kind of job you think you'll have when you are a grown up?
Member Since: Juli 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
300. SPLbeater
03:15 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Just had a nice Cinnamon n Raisin biscut from hardees.....YUM.

Be round to chat in few mins, got some schewl to do:)
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
298. Skyepony (Mod)
02:38 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Texas town relying on tanker trucks for water
Wells nearly run dry amid drought
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36048
297. RTSplayer
02:38 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting Xeloi:


I actually feel that I am qualified to comment on this one -- I have a PhD in Astrophysics.

Just because the energy density is lower doesn't really mean much. A "living" star is always in a state known as "hydrostatic equilibrium" -- the radiation pressure from nuclear fusion and the gas pressure from the hot plasma pushing outwards is balanced by the gravitational pressure pushing downwards. When the supply of hydrogen starts to run out in the core of the star, where fusion is taking place, the core of the star starts to contract as gravity starts to "win". This contraction causes the core to heat up, which is slightly counter-intuitive, I know, but true nevertheless -- gravitational potential energy is being converted into heat. The hotter core means that the star actually releases more energy, so while the core of the star contracts, the outer layers actually expand. This is the red giant phase. If the star is massive enough, the core will actually get hot enough to initiate Helium burning, which requires a much higher temperature than Hydrogen burning. It's not clear if the Sun is massive enough for this... if Helium burning doesn't start, the core will continue to contract and "blow away" the outer layers of the star, which will first create a planetary nebula before becoming a white dwarf. If the star IS massive enough, it will find a new hydrostatic equilibrium, hot enough to maintain Helium burning. It's true that there is less energy released from Helium burning than from Hydrogen burning -- and the star is hotter besides, releasing more energy, so the Helium burning state ultimately has a much shorter lifetime than the Hydrogen burning state. Once the Helium starts to run out, the core starts to contract and heat again. Only very massive stars can begin to burn the Carbon, Oxygen, and Nitrogen "ashes" left over from Helium burning... otherwise, planetary nebula/white dwarf. This burning can continue through Silicon and all the way to Iron... however, any attempt to "fuse" Iron leads to a net loss in energy, rather than a gain, so that's it. Stars that get Iron in their cores ultimately collapse into neutron stars or black holes with a bang -- supernova.



The problem is that it requires much higher temperatures to initiate and maintain helium burning. When the energy generation from Hydrogen burning starts


I know all that, but that's all model and theory.


Nobody has ever been inside a Star to actually measure the composition and say, "Oh yeah, there's exactly this much hydrogen, exactly that much helium, exactly that much Carbon, etc," plus it would really vary for every star anyway.

The compositions we know for the Sun are for the photosphere, and even there the Sun already has heavier elements, nearly a percent of nitrogen and Carbon, with some Oxygen and Iron present too.

The sun's emission spectra is caused by the photosphere, and has virtually nothing to do with the internal dynamics.

So basicly, everything we "know" about the Sun comes from the photosphere, and the rest is just mathematics that anyone with a calculator could do, but based on theory and assumptions that can't actually be tested, because any instrument sent to the Sun to actually take a sample of the core, or observe reactions would be destroyed.

Anyone could say, "Well, this is how much energy is made by the P-P chain, and this is how much we know the sun makes, some um, divide moles by the net energy and you get what amount of Hydrogen is being fused per second, etc."

But that's operating under the assumption that the core is actually fusing hydrogen.

Since nobody has been there, nobody actually knows.

The center is already 20 times as dense as iron, so it could be anything. It could already be lead or neutronium or some other exotic state of matter.



Stellar fusion was proposed as a theory to explain how the stars could live for long life times, since it was recognized that chemistry was not sufficient.


But to take the "age" of stars and then cite that as a proof or evidence of the exact nature of reactions in a star then becomes circular reasoning.

i.e.

A) How do stars burn so long?

Well, they work on Fusion.

B) How do you know they are doing fusion?

Well, because they burn so long.


Sorry, that might work in what passes for modern physics, but it's ridiculous.


Believe it or not, there actually are other reactions energy sources known in the universe which could maintain the Sun's output for hundreds or even thousands of times longer than fusion.

anti-matter
Zero Point
Alternate Dimensions
Wormholes
White Holes

One or more or any number of these may or may not exist in the core of Stars, and we'd have no way to prove or disprove their existence, because all our instruments would be destroyed before they can get close enough to take a deep enough sample.

Even with the law of parsimony, the White Hole possibility is no more complicated than the standard model. Heck it's actually simpler.


Take the White Hole, the idea of the reverse of a black hole, and think about it.

How would you prove that a White Hole is actually a White Hole over human time scales of one life span, and assuming it has an apparent mass equal to the Sun and an luminosity equal to the Sun? It need not be a runaway white hole, it could be in equilibrium, or it could even be dying, but you wouldn't know any of that initially. So how would you prove it is or is not?

How would you prove where the energy comes from, and how would you prove what types of matter and energy should or should not come out of a white hole? Will it be random matter and energy of all types? Or will it be the simplest forms of matter: almost pure hydrogen and Helium, like the composition of the Sun's photosphere.



Do you see how thinking outside the box exposes just how little is actually known in the standard model, and just how much is assumed?

Well, we assume it's hydrogen fusion because, well, what else would it be?

100 years later, we still dont understand cosmology at all. We've got a jillion competing and conflicting observations and theories: dark matter, dark energy, branes, MOND, Quintessence, parallel universes, 10 to 26 dimensions of space-time...and now I think they're up to "Multiple Multi-verses".

The funny thing is, this is supposedly "science" and yet almost none of it is falsifiable. It's practically religion.
Member Since: Januar 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1494
296. Skyepony (Mod)
02:38 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Death toll from European cold spell hits 58: Temps expected to plunge to minus 20 F
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36048
295. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
02:30 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET January 31 2012
==================================

Extra-Tropical Depression 08 - Ex-FUNSO:
===========================================
At 09Z :
Position : 35.7S 51.6E
Movement East southeast at 4 kt.
Maximum winds 20 kt, up to 30kt in the southeastern semi-circle due the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure (cf. ASCAT data at 04.59Z).

Ex-FUNSO is forecast to fill up by the middle of the week and to track slowly eastward.

Area of disturbed weather over the Mozambique Channel:
================================================= ==

Last animated satellite pictures show a low level circulation exposed East of the convective cluster
located near 21.0S 42.6E at 09Z. This small low hugs the west coast of Malagasy. It tracked at about
11kt southward during the past 12 hours. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1003 hPa. Maximum winds are estimated at 20 knots.

Associated convective activity is fluctuating, with a moderate convective activity located in the eastern part of the channel between 19.0S and 27.0S. Available numerical weather prediction models outcomes at 00:00 AM UTCZ analyze this low close without developing it significantly. For the next few days, this low is forecast to track south-westward on the northern face of the subtropical ridge, without significant deepening. Indeed the lower levels supply remain marginal on the two sides of the low and the low is forecast to undergo a moderate Easterly vertical wind shear, on the northern edge of the upper level anticyclone.

There is no other suspect area over the basin.

For the next 72 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression is poor.
Member Since: Mai 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
294. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
02:30 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 PM WST January 31 2012
=================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (984 hPa) located at 23.9S 108.3E or 640 km west southwest of Exmouth and 555 km west northwest of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 26.1S 107.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.0S 108.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 29.0S 111.7E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 28.5S 116.0E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

TC Iggy was located by microwave and visible imagery which show a symmetric system under low vertical wind shear. Intensity of 45 knots based on 0134UTC ASCAT pass showing region of 40 knots on eastern flank. Current SSE motion has increased to 12 knots which will support some enhancement of winds on eastern side. Dvorak FT maintained at 3.0 based on adjusted MET although IR eye pattern gives DT as high as 4.0 [DG surround, LG/OW elongated eye] which would support a higher FT. Cloud tops have warmed on recent images indicative of weakening convection as the system moves over cooler water. SATCON is 59 knots [1min mean] biased towards AMSU estimates of 63 kn although FOV=3.

Imagery suggest drier air to the south and west however the core of the cyclone should remain protected until an increased shear increases. Interaction with a passing mid latitude trough to the south should provide a period of enhanced outflow on the southern side and may encourage regeneration of some convection overnight during the diurnally favorable period.

During Wednesday Iggy is expected to weaken as it moves over cooler water and shear gradually increases. However marginal gales may extend into 24-36 hours forecast period, as suggested by various numerical weather prediction, albeit limited to sectors assisted by synoptic southeasterlies south of the system and then on northern side as the system takes a more southeast track.

Models show good agreement on the track, initially to the SSW for the next 12-18 hours and then with the majority taking the remnant system towards the west coast on Thursday. With a passing mid-latitude trough to the south on Wednesday the steering is toward the east at all levels except 850hPa.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC IGGY will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: Mai 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
293. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
02:30 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F
0:00 AM FST February 1 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 07F (997 hPa) located at 15.2S 167.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 06 hours. Deep convection near the system center has increased in the last 12 hours with cloud tops cooling. System lies under an upper diffluent region and to the east of an upper trough. Depression lies in a region of moderate shear and is being steered to the southeast by a deep layer mean northwesterly wind flow. Sea surface temperature is around 29-30C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap. DT= 2.0, MET and PT agrees. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 hrs.

Global models are gradually intensifying the system and moving it southeastwards.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.
Member Since: Mai 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43639
292. Neapolitan
02:22 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
To add to/update the numbers Dr. Masters included in his blog entry:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
144 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012


...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BROKEN IN INTERIOR ALASKA...

A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH HAS GRASPED NORTHERN ALASKA FOR
MUCH OF JANUARY RESULTED IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND. READINGS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 BELOW ZERO WERE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH SOME LOCATIONS PLUMMETING TO 60
BELOW AND COLDER.

BELOW ARE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BROKEN OVER THE WEEKEND:

GALENA............SATURDAY....-63 (OLD RECORD -58 IN 1989)
SUNDAY......-65 (OLD RECORD -56 IN 1947)

BETTLES...........SATURDAY....-60 (OLD RECORD -56 1989)
SUNDAY......-60 (OLD RECORD -58 1989)


OTHER LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND (NOT RECORDS):

FORT YUKON COOPERATIVE OBSERVATION...............-66
KANDIK RIVER COOPERATIVE OBSERVATION.............-64
HUSLIA........................................... -63
TANANA........................................... -61
CLEAR SKY LODGE..................................-60
MANLEY HOT SPRINGS...............................-60
NORTH POLE (WOODSMOKE)...........................-60
CHICKEN.......................................... -59
EAGLE............................................ -57
NORTH POLE (KJNP)................................-57
GOLDSTREAM VALLEY BOTTOM.........................-55
NENANA........................................... -54
FAIRBANKS AIRPORT................................-51

$$
EP/RT

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Also, as noted last evening in comment #181, there was no official statewide record cold reading at the Jim River station:

This from NWS in Fairbanks:

NOAK49 PAFG 302352
PNSAFG
AKZ219-222-311200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

...CLARIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES FROM JIM RIVER DOT CAMP...

TEMPERATURES THIS PAST WEEKEND AT THE ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION JIM RIVER MAINTENANCE CAMP AT MILE 138 DALTON
HIGHWAY...STATION JMTA2...HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS LOW AS 79 BELOW.

THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT CORRECT. THE WEATHER STATION IN USE AT
THE JIM RIVER DOT CAMP IS A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION THAT IS NOT
RATED FOR TEMPERATURE COLDER THAN 40 BELOW. THE UNREALISTICALLY
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BELIEVED TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE BATTERY
FAILING AT VERY LOW TEMPERATURES.

THERE ARE NO OFFICIAL...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STANDARD...
TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS AT JIM RIVER DOT CAMP.

$$
RT/JL JAN 12
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
291. PensacolaDoug
02:04 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
RE:288


Look at all of that arctic air coming to meet it!
Member Since: Juli 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
290. Neapolitan
01:56 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting percylives:
From RSOE EDIS:

A North Sea oil field was closed down after a leak was discovered in a pipeline. The Foinaven field, nearly 120 miles west of Shetland, was closed down after the "small" leak was discovered early on Sunday. The leak, of an oil and water mix, was discovered by a remotely-operated vehicle carrying out routine checks at the BP owned field at around 1.30am. The field was immediately shut down and the leak was stopped within an hour. A company spokesman said it was not yet possible to calculate how much oil had leaked or how long it had been escaping for. He said: "BP has since carried out comprehensive checks of the area, at the source and on the surface, and can confirm that no oil is visible and that there is no evidence of ongoing pollution. "Production remains shut down. An investigation into the cause of the incident will be carried out by BP." Coastguard, police, the Health and Safety Executive and the Department of Energy and Climate Change have all been notified.

"An investigation of the incident will be carried out by BP." Now where have I heard that before? Oh, yeah. Sure gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling.
For sure. At this point, if BP puts out a press release stating that fire is hot, you'd do well to check for yourself before accepting their word on it. :-\
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
289. percylives
01:27 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting Xeloi:


I actually feel that I am qualified to comment on this one -- I have a PhD in Astrophysics.

Just because the energy density is lower doesn't really mean much. A "living" star is always in a state known as "hydrostatic equilibrium" -- the radiation pressure from nuclear fusion and the gas pressure from the hot plasma pushing outwards is balanced by the gravitational pressure pushing downwards. When the supply of hydrogen starts to run out in the core of the star, where fusion is taking place, the core of the star starts to contract as gravity starts to "win". This contraction causes the core to heat up, which is slightly counter-intuitive, I know, but true nevertheless -- gravitational potential energy is being converted into heat. The hotter core means that the star actually releases more energy, so while the core of the star contracts, the outer layers actually expand. This is the red giant phase. If the star is massive enough, the core will actually get hot enough to initiate Helium burning, which requires a much higher temperature than Hydrogen burning. It's not clear if the Sun is massive enough for this... if Helium burning doesn't start, the core will continue to contract and "blow away" the outer layers of the star, which will first create a planetary nebula before becoming a white dwarf. If the star IS massive enough, it will find a new hydrostatic equilibrium, hot enough to maintain Helium burning. It's true that there is less energy released from Helium burning than from Hydrogen burning -- and the star is hotter besides, releasing more energy, so the Helium burning state ultimately has a much shorter lifetime than the Hydrogen burning state. Once the Helium starts to run out, the core starts to contract and heat again. Only very massive stars can begin to burn the Carbon, Oxygen, and Nitrogen "ashes" left over from Helium burning... otherwise, planetary nebula/white dwarf. This burning can continue through Silicon and all the way to Iron... however, any attempt to "fuse" Iron leads to a net loss in energy, rather than a gain, so that's it. Stars that get Iron in their cores ultimately collapse into neutron stars or black holes with a bang -- supernova.



The problem is that it requires much higher temperatures to initiate and maintain helium burning. When the energy generation from Hydrogen burning starts


Ah, an astrophysicist, great. Excellent explanation.

I have to ask to make sure I don't make the mistake again.

Does the hydrogen burning in the outer layers of the star also act to increase the physical size of the star as I stated in #245 or am I out in another universe with that explanation? Thanks.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
288. StormTracker2K
01:20 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
0Z run of the GFS has the low further south.


Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
287. percylives
01:19 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
From RSOE EDIS:

A North Sea oil field was closed down after a leak was discovered in a pipeline. The Foinaven field, nearly 120 miles west of Shetland, was closed down after the "small" leak was discovered early on Sunday. The leak, of an oil and water mix, was discovered by a remotely-operated vehicle carrying out routine checks at the BP owned field at around 1.30am. The field was immediately shut down and the leak was stopped within an hour. A company spokesman said it was not yet possible to calculate how much oil had leaked or how long it had been escaping for. He said: "BP has since carried out comprehensive checks of the area, at the source and on the surface, and can confirm that no oil is visible and that there is no evidence of ongoing pollution. "Production remains shut down. An investigation into the cause of the incident will be carried out by BP." Coastguard, police, the Health and Safety Executive and the Department of Energy and Climate Change have all been notified.

"An investigation of the incident will be carried out by BP." Now where have I heard that before? Oh, yeah. Sure gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98
286. StormTracker2K
01:17 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
This area here is going to get drenched the next few days.


Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
285. StormTracker2K
01:06 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
12 Day GFS precip totals. Looks as if the SE US is heading into a wet pattern which is great as it's been dry this winter across the SE US especially FL.

Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
284. StormTracker2K
01:04 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
We could have our first Hybrid or STS (Alberto) Next week in the C Gulf. This appears like may orginate from a wave in the Eastern Pacific. Very interesting!!

Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
283. SPLbeater
01:03 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
good morning...
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4481
282. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:32 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting TampaSpin:



That is the NEW WeatherUnderGround way. Lets this site become a forum for Kids. NICE JOB!!!!

If you don't like the way this site is going, you have two options. 1.) You put whomever you don't like on your ignore list or 2.) The door is to the right...it's always open.

I'm sick of people complaining about bloggers' ages, it gets really old.
Member Since: Juli 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30237
281. percylives
12:27 PM GMT am 31. Januar 2012
Quoting islander101010:
feds are reevaluating properties here in e cen fl. concerning flood insurance wonder if they take into consideration that e cen fl. has not one landfalling major hurricane acc to the records bet not.


Feds may be reevaluating E Central FL properties because of impending sea level rise and hurricanes may be a minor consideration. Just because the dolts in Congress don't support the idea of climate change and its ramifications doesn't mean other Federal agencies aren't moving ahead. The Navy has been raising the heights of piers in Norfolk. Some of the most interesting reading on the subject has come from military and security conferences on the effects of climate change. Two examples from "security and climate change" google.

Link

Link

Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 98

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.