Summer in March: more all-time March temperature records in U.S., Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:53 PM GMT am 21. März 2012

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Summer in March continued for the eighth day yesterday, toppling dozens of records for hottest March day in both the U.S. and Canada. Nearly every major airport in Michigan's Lower Peninsula tied or set records for their hottest March temperature, including Detroit (82°), Flint (84°F), Saginaw (83°F), Grand Rapids (83°), Muskegon (82°), Lansing (83°), Alpena (84°), Gaylord (80°), Pellston (84°), Traverse City (86°), and Houghton Lake (81°). Most of these records will be broken again today or tomorrow. Detroit's current string of six days over 70° is unprecedented so early in the year. One has to go back over 125 years to find an early-season warm spell that compares, and even that streak occurred in April, a full month later (April 16 - 24, 1886.)

Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past four days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 84°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 84° reading broke the previous record for the date (55° in 1976 and 1948) by an unbelievable 29°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 86°F yesterday, which was 45°F above the average high for the date, and was the fourth consecutive day with a hottest March temperature on record.


Figure 1. Summer-like temperatures this March in the Midwest have heated up Lake Michigan to record warm levels for this time of year. The average temperature of the lake is characteristic of what occurs in June. Image credit: NOAA. Thanks to wunderground member Neapolitan for posting this image in my blog comments.

Hot times in Lake Michigan
The NWS in Chicago reported yesterday that the Windy City's high of 85°F that day boosted the average temperature for the month to levels that would make March the 7th warmest April in the city's 140-year record. The unprecedented March warmth in the states surrounding Lake Michigan have heated the lake to temperatures never seen before this early in the year. Water temperatures at the South Lake Michigan buoy were 46 - 47°F yesterday (8°C), which is about 10°F above average for this time of year, and typical of early June temperatures.

Record March warmth spreads into New England
Temperatures across much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine yesterday were the warmest on record for so early in the year. Burlington, Vermont's 80°F was 39°F above the average high for the date, and the earliest 80° reading in recorded history. Concord, New Hampshire (81°) and Bangor, Maine (78°), also had their warmest temperatures for so early in the year. The 73°F recorded in Caribou, Maine tied for that city's highest March temperature on record, and broke the record for the date by a remarkable 23°F.

Record warmth continues in Canada
Numerous all-time warmest March temperatures were recorded in Ontario, Canada yesterday, including Windsor at 27°C (previous record, 26.6°C), Sarnia (26°C, previous record 25.6°C), and London (25°C, previous record 24.8°C). High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are likely to break records for hottest March day for most of the major cities in these provinces, including Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, St. Johns, and Halifax.


Figure 2. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure. The Western U.S. trough has cut off into a "cut-off low" that will slowly drift eastwards during the remainder of the week.

Summer in March ends by Friday
The unprecedented Summer in March conditions are due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S. Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. has broken off to form a giant eddy. The resulting area of low pressure is known as a "cut-off low", because it is cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S. by Friday.

How rare is this Summer in March heat event?
One measure of how record-breaking this "Summer in March" heat wave has been is the impact it had on NOAA's National Climatic Data Center web site. The extremes section of the their web site has been down since last Friday, since their software has been unable to handle both the huge number of records being set and the huge demand from people wanting to see these records. The web site came back on-line this morning with software re-engineered to handle the load, but only with data through Sunday.

We can also quantify how rare a meteorological event is by looking at statistics of past years. By averaging together at least 30 years of data to take a representative snapshot of the climate, we can generate a mean and a standard deviation of the data. The standard deviation gives a measure of how much the data fluctuates around the mean.

In comparing deviations from normal across wide regions, it helps to normalize the deviations. A temperature deviation of 3 degrees C may be not that unusual in one region, but may be very significant in another. The solution is to use climatological anomalies (which we often refer to by the Greek letter, sigma.) Calculating the climatological anomaly is a two step process. First, we calculate the difference between a quantity (i.e., temperature) and it's 30-year average value. Then we normalize the difference by dividing it with the 30-year standard deviation. From statistical theory, we know how unusual climatological anomalies are by value:

Odds of a deviation > 1 climatological anomaly=31.7%
Odds of a deviation > 2 climatological anomalies=4.5%
Odds of a deviation > 3 climatological anomalies=0.27%
Odds of a deviation > 4 climatological anomalies=6.34/1000%
Odds of a deviation > 5 climatological anomalies=5.7/100000%
Odds of a deviation > 6 climatological anomalies=1.9/1000000%

So, if we have a 30-year history of high temperatures for a particular date, we'd expect 20 of those years to be 1-sigma years, when the temperature is plus or minus 34% of average (ten colder years, and ten warmer years.) Rare 2-sigma events occur 4.5% of the time, so we should have about 16 of these per year. Even rarer 3-sigma events occur just 0.27% of the time, or just one day per year, on average. Truly extreme 4-sigma events should only occur once every 43 years. Much of Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northeast Iowa, and the eastern Dakota have experienced multiple 4-sigma days over the past week.

Wunderground is computing 30-year means of the weather for each day of the year using data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) (NOMADS data repository). Here is a description how a reanalysis works. CFSR is notable because it is the first reanalysis to use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. As a result, CFSR has physically consistent estimates of the conditions of the atmosphere, ocean, and land. CFSR has data from 1979 (When polar-orbiting satellites became able to estimate vertical profiles of temperature) to 2010. We can take the mean and standard deviation for each calendar day using this history, and compare it to the current forecast from the GFS model. The result is an image showing how far from average the temperatures are. Yesterday, the analysis showed that Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Of course, using 30 years of data to estimate extreme events with a return period of centuries is a sketchy proposition. However, keep in mind that had we used a century-long climatology instead of using the past 30 years, yesterday's warmth would have been classified as much more extreme, since the climate has warmed considerably in the past 30 years. It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred unless the climate was warming.


Figure 3. Climatological anomalies for March 20, 2012. Michigan experienced temperatures that were 4 - 5 climatological anomalies warmer than average (4-sigma to 5-sigma), the type of extreme that occurs between once every 43 years and once every 4779 years. Wunderground plans to make these plots available in real time on our web site later this year.

Heavy rains create flash flood concerns in Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma
Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen over the past two days in Eastern Texas, Eastern Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, and Louisiana over the past two days, creating a serious flash flood hazard. So far, no major river flooding has been reported, and it appears the damage from this flood event will be limited. A few rainfall amounts from the event, from 7 pm CDT Sunday - 3 am CDT Wednesday, taken from the latest NWS Storm Summary:

...TEXAS...
ORANGE 9.68
WACO 6.17
FORT HOOD AAF/KILLEEN 5.43
DALLAS LOVE FIELD 4.49
NWS FORT WORTH 4.13

...OKLAHOMA...
LANGLEY 7.16
NORMAN 5.55
TULSA 4.52
MCALESTER 4.02
OKLAHOMA CITY 3.18

...LOUISIANA...
FORT POLK 6.14
SHREVEPORT 4.06
LAKE CHARLES 2.11

...ARKANSAS...
FORT SMITH 3.49
BENTONVILLE 3.09
LITTLE ROCK 2.22
FAYETTEVILLE 2.08


Jeff Masters

Hot Hot Hot (llpj04)
wait ......we are suppose to play this in the summer
Hot Hot Hot
HOT !!!!!!!! (emixam101)
5h05 PM today, the Local Weather Station in Beauceville reported 22C, (73F) ! An ALL TIME RECORD ALL MARCH MONTHS CONFUSED SINCE 1871 ! The previous record was 20.6C (69F) recorded on March 30th 1977.We also broke the daily record of 12C (54F) recorded on 1970.On local thermomethers with sun sensation, put them up to 29C (84F) ! Guys in Arizona, DON'T SEARCH THE HEAT ! IT IS IN QUEBEC AS INSANE AS I LOOKS !!!!!! I LOVE IT, KEEP THE SNOW !!! :)))P
HOT !!!!!!!!
Happy Spring! (gardner48197)
Happy First Day of Spring everyone!
Happy Spring!

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Phil Klotzbach/Dr William Gray dont analize the GOM in their seasonal outlooks. I asked why on their Facebook page and below is the answer.


We usually look at the tropical Atlantic by itself. Gulf of Mexico SSTs do not correlate well with seasonal Atlantic basin activity.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14338
Powerful Earthquake in Mexico: Destructive but not Deadly
There were reports of damaged buildings but none were reported to have collapsed on the Oaxaca[state]side of the border," civil protection spokeswoman Cynthia Tovar said.
In Guerrero[state], home to Acapulco where little damage was reported, officials say about 800 homes were damaged and 60 collapsed.
Authorities said the absence of tall buildings in the mountainous rural area is one reason for the lack of casualties.
"Another factor to consider is how tested an area has been," said USGS seismologist Susan Hoover. There have been 15 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or stronger since 1973 within 310 miles (500 kilometers) of Tuesday's quake. Weaker buildings collapse with each quake, leaving a cadre of stronger ones that can withstand the shaking.
20Mar 06:02:49pmGMT - magnitude7.4 at 16.662n98.188w - depth20.0kilometres(12.4miles)
4miles(6.4kilometres)northwest of SanJuanCacahuatepec ~midway between Acapulco and Oaxaca
(For scale, the red line connects the epicenter with the town; and ACA marks AcapulcoAirport)

Aftershocks
20Mar 06:22:35pmGMT - magnitude5.3 at 16.298n98.183w - depth18.0kilometres(11.2miles)
20Mar 06:35:40pmGMT - magnitude5.1 at 16.527n98.100w - depth10.1kilometres(6.3miles)
20Mar 07:02:45pmGMT - magnitude5.1 at 16.383n98.333w - depth25.9kilometres(16.1miles)
20Mar 08:14:40pmGMT - magnitude5.1 at 16.529n98.007w - depth10.5kilometres(6.5miles)
20Mar 22:25:43pmGMT - magnitude5.0 at 16.449n98.657w - depth21.3kilometres(13.2miles)
21Mar 02:54:40amGMT - magnitude5.0 at 16.736n98.213w - depth20.9kilometres(13miles)
21Mar 11:36:16amGMT - magnitude5.0 at 16.796n98.209w - depth20.0kilometres(12.4miles)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I suppose they will mention the GOM on the April 4th complete update.Yes,is a big concern that with the warm GOM,some systems form there and grow fast with the fuel they may get.


The Gulf and US has been pretty lucky the past few years and You folks in PR have had a few close calls but nothing catastrophic..... The Gulf is always a big concern and all we can do is pray and hope for the best this year. Hope that the general public does does not let their guard down when they hear "less than average" but that will perception will change quickly if we get a real strong storm make landfall in a populated area early in the total numbers season.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9240
Dust is moving into the western Ganges watershed. Smog covers the Eastern Ganges. Today MODIS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (10%)



Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (30%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (10%)



Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (10%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (<5%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
Mod (60%)




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you Dr. Masters. I was listening to our local weather on TV, which comes out of Miami, and they state that SE Fl. is 10 degrees warmer than normal for lows. Our highs have been about right on. So I wonder sometimes what the big deal is, until I see the difference in the temperature norms for the Northern folks. Of course, here in the Keys, we break out the sweaters, scarves and hats if it gets below 70. We might even put on socks and shoes LOL. When I see the temps in the 80's I think what lovely weather. Then I see it should be in the 60's, and think what our temps would be with that much difference and I cringe. It's all relative. It doesn't bode well for this summer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 96. WATCH NUMBER 96 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1010
AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM NERN LA INTO SERN LA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS
INDICATED A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWP STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
BAND...AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WARMS AND SLOWLY MOISTENS. VWP FROM
KLIX SHOWS 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM THAT VEER WITH HEIGHT
RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVER SHEAR/SRN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20035.


...WEISS

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Very Low


Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 96. WATCH NUMBER 96 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1010
AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM NERN LA INTO SERN LA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS
INDICATED A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWP STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
BAND...AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WARMS AND SLOWLY MOISTENS. VWP FROM
KLIX SHOWS 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM THAT VEER WITH HEIGHT
RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVER SHEAR/SRN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20035.


...WEISS

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Very Low


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1010 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST OF BOOTHVILLE
LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 96. WATCH NUMBER 96 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1010
AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM NERN LA INTO SERN LA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR HAS
INDICATED A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWP STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
BAND...AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WARMS AND SLOWLY MOISTENS. VWP FROM
KLIX SHOWS 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM THAT VEER WITH HEIGHT
RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVER SHEAR/SRN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20035.


...WEISS

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Very Low


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 211504
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

TORNADO WATCH 97 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC005-035-037-041-051-057-063-065-067-071-075-083 -087-089-091-
093-095-103-105-107-109-117-123-212300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0097.120321T1510Z-120321T2300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ASCENSION EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
LIVINGSTON MADISON MOREHOUSE
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES RICHLAND
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE
WASHINGTON WEST CARROLL


MSC001-005-021-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-047-049 -055-059-061-
063-065-067-073-077-079-085-089-091-109-111-113-12 1-123-125-127-
129-131-147-149-163-212300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0097.120321T1510Z-120321T2300Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN GEORGE GREENE
HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS
ISSAQUENA JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
LAMAR LAWRENCE LEAKE
LINCOLN MADISON MARION
PEARL RIVER PERRY PIKE
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH STONE
WALTHALL WARREN YAZOO


GMZ530-532-534-536-538-212300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0097.120321T1510Z-120321T2300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

MISSISSIPPI SOUND

LAKE BORGNE

CHANDELEUR SOUND

BRETON SOUND

ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB...




Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Low Very Low


Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW7
WW 97 TORNADO LA MS CW 211510Z - 212300Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20W BVE/BOOTHVILLE LA/ - 40NW JAN/JACKSON MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /21ENE LEV - 24WNW JAN/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20035.

REPLACES WW 96..LA MS CW

LAT...LON 29319088 32729176 32728936 29318856

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.


Watch 97 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I did miss it and Thanks. Wow, high confidence in an El Nino H-season as opposed to ENSO Neutral. If this pans out, sheer could end the season earlier than lately but watch out. Andrew was the first storm, in late August at that in 92, in an El Nino year with few storms and we know what happened....I am really concerned regardless with these very warm temps in the Gulf already.

What if we get a copy of the 2011 pacific hurricane season....which had 11 name storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People up in the Great Lakes region maybe shocked if they find themselves with snow in forecast with highs in the 30's & 40's. Models have been on and off about this but it is something to watch as the Southern Branch is expected to start getting active next week.

Member Since: Oktober 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting hydrus:
You have a good point Jed. Radar is not infallible and make incorrect measurements at times. Rain gauges are the best way to measure rain if it is not to windy. I think eventually they will tweak the radar enough to get those more accurate rainfall amounts. I have witnessed the radars get it right too, so it does have the ability. In the transmitted radar signal, the electric field is perpendicular to the direction of propagation, and this direction of the electric field is the polarization of the wave. Radars use horizontal, vertical, linear and circular polarization to detect different types of reflections. For example, circular polarization is used to minimize the interference caused by rain. Linear polarization returns usually indicate metal surfaces. Random polarization returns usually indicate a fractal surface, such as rocks or soil, and are used by navigation radars. We have come a long way tho.This is Hurricane Abby approaching the coast of British Honduras. The complete eyewall cloud is visible. Location: Near British Honduras (Belize)
Date 15 July 1960
Source NOAA photo lib
Author NOAA's National Weather Service..Wiki




Yeah radar certainly has come a long way, and yes it is sometimes right as well, I just get a little annoyed when they are way off and I want people to know the truth :)



I think the radar upgrade will help a lot as well. The local news Station here in Tampa Bay(Bay News 9 got an upgrade of the same to dual pole a little while ago and they get MUCH more accurate rainfall rates than the traditional way of getting them. There's a great number of other benefits for tracking severe weather as well that come along with the upgrade.


Unfortunately, I think I read somewhere that if the nearest radar site to you has already been upgraded, we as viewers will only be able to continue in seeing the older radar type and won't be able to see the upgraded version till 2013 once all the radars are upgraded.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7615
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I did miss it and Thanks. Wow, high confidence in an El Nino H-season as opposed to ENSO Neutral. If this pans out, sheer could end the season earlier than lately but watch out. Andrew was the first storm, in late August at that in 92, in an El Nino year with few storms and we know what happened....I am really concerned regardless with these very warm temps in the Gulf already.


I suppose they will mention the GOM on the April 4th complete update.Yes,is a big concern that with the warm GOM,some systems form there and grow fast with the fuel they may get.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14338

There is quite a bit of moisture over the eastern carib/central Atl
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Good Morning Folks, warm and breezy here along the gulf coast this morning. going up to 86 later today with a 40% chance of a sprinkle or better yet i hope a good thunderstorm, we sure need the rain here. well have a great day and those folks still dealing with that bad Low west of here, good luck and heed your local warnings..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39309
I just bought a bunch of plants at the Forest Hill Nursery Festival last weekend. I have some pots and buckets out with the plants in the back yard. I have an average of ten inches of water in them. I'm just down the road from the Kasatchie ranger station.
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Quoting Jax82:
Only 71 more days til Hurricane season 2012 begins! Here's a list of this seasons names.

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

Thanks for the names Jax82
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River of dust between Middle East and India today 200 miles wide and stretching 1500 miles across open ocean.

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I feel the abrupt need for fresh air, and fresh Sunkist.
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4486
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Repost from the previous blog in case anyone missed the CSU brief update for the 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season. The headline is less active Atlantic for 2012 season.

Link


I did miss it and Thanks. Wow, high confidence in an El Nino H-season as opposed to ENSO Neutral. If this pans out, sheer could end the season earlier than lately but watch out. Andrew was the first storm, in late August at that in 92, in an El Nino year with few storms and we know what happened....I am really concerned regardless with these very warm temps in the Gulf already.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9240
Is this record March heatwave (possibly 500 year) a good indication of what is to come this summer? How hot do you think it is capable of getting in the South during a 500 year heatwave?
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Only 71 more days til Hurricane season 2012 begins! Here's a list of this seasons names.

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William
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...like i said a few days back, this year is gonna really screw up our averages... I just hope that we don't have to deal with a bad freeze now that everything has blossomed..
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Thank You Dr. M.; It is highly unlikely the warmth of the current "Summer in March" heat wave could have occurred unless the climate was warming.

The next few decades of data will go a long way towards validating many of the concerns as to climate change. What I do not know (and it may not be possible during my/our current life time) is whether the current trends and anomalies are due to natural cycles (over thousands of years of "Earth" time as documented by ice core samples and other similar data)or whether this truely signals climate change due to carbon emissions and other man-made factors.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9240
HPC Storm Summary

Excerpt:

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 PM CDT SUN MAR
18 THROUGH 900 AM CDT WED MAR 21...



...LOUISIANA...
NATCHITOCHES 0.9 NE 8.91
FORT POLK 7.12
DERIDDER 5.95
SIMSBORO 0.3 WNW 5.74
STARKS 5.50
PLAIN DEALING 3.3 ESE 5.40
HOMER 1.2 N 5.21
MINDEN 2.0 NE 5.08
SHREVEPORT 9.1 SE 5.01
MINDEN 2.2 NE 4.86
BOSSIER CITY 7.9 NNW 4.67
VINTON 4.30
SHREVEPORT 4.06

Guess they left out this gage:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 SSE PROVENCAL 31.52N 93.14W
03/21/2012 M10.19 INCH NATCHITOCHES LA PARK/FOREST SRVC

MEASURED 10.19 RAINFALL AT KISATCHIE RANGER STATION 24
HOUR-OBSERVATION ENDING AT 6 AM MARCH 21 2012.
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Thanks Dr. Masters
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Which return period is it? 43 - 4800 is quite a spread.
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Repost from the previous blog in case anyone missed the CSU brief update for the 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season. The headline is less active Atlantic.

Link

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14338




This is a quick view of the initial counties (WOU) product for WW 0097

WOUS64 KWNS 211504
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

TORNADO WATCH 97 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC005-035-037-041-051-057-063-065-067-071-075-083 -087-089-091-
093-095-103-105-107-109-117-123-212300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0097.120321T1510Z-120321T2300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ASCENSION EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA
FRANKLIN JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE
LIVINGSTON MADISON MOREHOUSE
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES RICHLAND
ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA
ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY
TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE
WASHINGTON WEST CARROLL


MSC001-005-021-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-047-049 -055-059-061-
063-065-067-073-077-079-085-089-091-109-111-113-12 1-123-125-127-
129-131-147-149-163-212300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0097.120321T1510Z-120321T2300Z/

MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE
COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST
FRANKLIN GEORGE GREENE
HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS
ISSAQUENA JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES
LAMAR LAWRENCE LEAKE
LINCOLN MADISON MARION
PEARL RIVER PERRY PIKE
RANKIN SCOTT SHARKEY
SIMPSON SMITH STONE
WALTHALL WARREN YAZOO


GMZ530-532-534-536-538-212300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0097.120321T1510Z-120321T2300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

MISSISSIPPI SOUND

LAKE BORGNE

CHANDELEUR SOUND

BRETON SOUND

ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB...
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Station Number: TX-JJ-9
Station Name: Beaumont 3.3 SW
Report Date: 2012-03-21 07:00 AM
Precipitation: 4.21"

Station Number: TX-JJ-8
Station Name: Beaumont 0.3 E
Report Date: 2012-03-21 07:00 AM
Precipitation: 5.50"

Station Number: TX-HRN-1
Station Name: Lumberton 1.2 WNW
Report Date: 2012-03-21 07:03 AM
Precipitation: 4.76"

Station Number: TX-OR-4
Station Name: Orange 2.1 SE
Report Date: 2012-03-21 07:00 AM
Precipitation: 9.65"
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Mesoscale Discussion 316

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0925 AM CDT WED MAR 21 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST LA TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 96...

VALID 211425Z - 211600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 96 CONTINUES.

TORNADO WATCH 96 CONTINUES UNTIL 17Z...BUT A NEW/REPLACEMENT WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST LA TO
MUCH OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND BOUTS OF
WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE IN THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A WELL-ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE A
SLOW BUT STEADY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS EASTERN LA
INTO SOUTHWEST MS AT MID/LATE MORNING. EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES/SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE LINE...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST LA WHERE SIGNS OF COLD POOL ORGANIZATION/FORWARD
PROPAGATION HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE EVIDENT IN PROXIMITY TO A
RELATIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE MARITIME AIRMASS. WHILE THE AIRMASS
ACROSS MUCH OF MS /WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT/ IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OWING TO CLOUD COVER/MODEST
MOISTURE AMID CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
TEND TO DESTABILIZE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE QLCS.
COINCIDENT WITH THE AXIS OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET /40-50
KT PER 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT WSR-88D VWP
DATA/...LONG/LOOPING HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND WIND
DAMAGE. HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 03/21/2012


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...SHV...

LAT...LON 32479220 32769188 33089051 32078914 30438876 29428993
29399094 30409103 31019160 31699183 32479220
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
80 degrees and sunny in Nassau. Had some heavy downpours last night.
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thanks for the update jeff!
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Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.