February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed
February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.
February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.
Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.
Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I was thinking that myself actually, its getting dark and that storm is dropping copious amounts of rain so seeing a tornado there would be hard. I've also observed the "tracking a tornado" wording frequently in the past few weeks. The use of dual-pole might the reason.
A few minutes ago, the storm literally had VIL off that charts. IT WAS OVER 125!!!!!!!
I'm stuck as a physics bachelor until grad school, so I have to take 9 additional credits of upper-division math on top of everything you mentioned. I suppose more practice is always good, but I sure don't like it much.
I would believe it, that cell is incredibly strong. Sometimes you'll here severe thunderstorms ahead of strong cold fronts produce stronger winds like that but its usually due to strong winds just above the surface being brought down. But I'm pretty sure that's just pure down draft force. Amazing...
I'm not fur sure but I think MET gradschool also requires advanced Calculus and a few more higher level math courses anyway.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1027 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012
PRC037-069-085-095-103-109-129-151-300415-
CEIBA PR-NAGUABO PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-
SAN LORENZO PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
1027 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012
AT 1019 PM AST...A THUNDERSTORM NEAR CEIBA AND NAGUABO IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AT LEAST UNTIL 1215 AM AST. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS NEARBY MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG WITH BLINDING RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.
INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.
MOTORISTS AND PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
$$
Man, anyone owning a really nice car in that core is probably crying right now, lol.
Very likely indeed. What's funny is once I had a monster thunderstorm in August that I thought was going to produce baseball size hail because of a massive VIL reading, but the VIL moved right over me and I never had hail at all, but I had some serious rain mixed with absolutely gigantic rain drops and a freaky lighting show and damaging winds.
FSU only requires differential equations, nothing higher, from what I looked at. Numerical analysis is good to have but not a requirement.
That's what insurance is for.
I've been in a few storms with the VIL being reported like that. We surprisingly only got some pea sized hail, but it was raining so hard that you couldn't lift your hands over your head or open your eyes. Breathing was even difficult!
Hail:
0224 175 MCALLEN HIDALGO TX 2622 9824 SEVERAL WINDOWS IN APARTMENT BROKEN HAIL PILING UP TO 6 INCHES. (BRO)
0229 100 MCALLEN HIDALGO TX 2622 9824 QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR DOCTORS HOSPITAL. STREET FLOODING OBSERVERD.
Wind:
0204 74 MCALLEN HIDALGO TX 2622 9824 MCALLEN MILLER AIRPORT ASOS PEAK WIND GUSTS AT MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE
PRC119-300530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0013.120330T0233Z-120330T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY
IN PUERTO RICO
RIO GRANDE
* UNTIL 130 AM AST
* AT 1028 PM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO ESPIRITU SANTO AT RIO GRANDE. RESIDENTS IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER
TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.
&&
LAT...LON 1842 6582 1841 6578 1834 6582 1834 6584
$$
OMS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Very interesting link
Nope, that's not it. Brownsville doesn't get the dual-pol upgrade for over a year yet.
Link
Producing fuel from CO2 and sunlight. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of California - Los Angeles)
ScienceDaily (Mar. 29, 2012) %u2014 Imagine being able to use electricity to power your car -- even if it's not an electric vehicle. Researchers at the UCLA Henry Samueli School of Engineering and Applied Science have for the first time demonstrated a method for converting carbon dioxide into liquid fuel isobutanol using electricity.
Today, electrical energy generated by various methods is still difficult to store efficiently. Chemical batteries, hydraulic pumping and water splitting suffer from low energy-density storage or incompatibility with current transportation infrastructure.
In a study published March 30 in the journal Science, James Liao, UCLA's Ralph M. Parsons Foundation Chair in Chemical Engineering, and his team report a method for storing electrical energy as chemical energy in higher alcohols, which can be used as liquid transportation fuels.
"The current way to store electricity is with lithium ion batteries, in which the density is low, but when you store it in liquid fuel, the density could actually be very high," Liao said. "In addition, we have the potential to use electricity as transportation fuel without needing to change current infrastructure."
Liao and his team genetically engineered a lithoautotrophic microorganism known as Ralstonia eutropha H16 to produce isobutanol and 3-methyl-1-butanol in an electro-bioreactor using carbon dioxide as the sole carbon source and electricity as the sole energy input.
Photosynthesis is the process of converting light energy to chemical energy and storing it in the bonds of sugar. There are two parts to photosynthesis -- a light reaction and a dark reaction. The light reaction converts light energy to chemical energy and must take place in the light. The dark reaction, which converts CO2 to sugar, doesn't directly need light to occur.
"We've been able to separate the light reaction from the dark reaction and instead of using biological photosynthesis, we are using solar panels to convert the sunlight to electrical energy, then to a chemical intermediate, and using that to power carbon dioxide fixation to produce the fuel," Liao said. "This method could be more efficient than the biological system."
Liao explained that with biological systems, the plants used require large areas of agricultural land. However, because Liao's method does not require the light and dark reactions to take place together, solar panels, for example, can be built in the desert or on rooftops.
Theoretically, the hydrogen generated by solar electricity can drive CO2 conversion in lithoautotrophic microorganisms engineered to synthesize high-energy density liquid fuels. But the low solubility, low mass-transfer rate and the safety issues surrounding hydrogen limit the efficiency and scalability of such processes. Instead Liao's team found formic acid to be a favorable substitute and efficient energy carrier.
"Instead of using hydrogen, we use formic acid as the intermediary," Liao said. "We use electricity to generate formic acid and then use the formic acid to power the CO2 fixation in bacteria in the dark to produce isobutanol and higher alcohols."
The electrochemical formate production and the biological CO2 fixation and higher alcohol synthesis now open up the possibility of electricity-driven bioconversion of CO2 to a variety of chemicals. In addition, the transformation of formate into liquid fuel will also play an important role in the biomass refinery process, according to Liao.
"We've demonstrated the principle, and now we think we can scale up," he said. "That's our next step."
The study was funded by a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E).
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ725-300400-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0004.120330T0234Z-120330T0400Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST THU MAR 29 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM...
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST
* AT 1024 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER OVER WATERS BETWEEN NAGUABO COAST AND THE ISLAND OF VIEQUES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.
&&
LAT...LON 1812 6578 1826 6563 1828 6533 1796 6547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 088DEG 6KT 1818 6561
$$
EM
Ya i captured this...WOW...check this out..OMG
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 9.7N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
I knew that was true for the bachelors degree because I've read the requirements for it like a 1000 times over the last couple years to make sure I'm taking the right math and other general courses so I am prepared to transfer there haha.
I just hadn't looked at the grad school stuff before, so I wasn't sure if that required more math or not. I'm definitely thinking about going to grad school after as well and focusing on tropical meteorology for many reasons.
Its nice to know I only have 1 more math class then. I just don't really like mathematics just for the sake of mathematics. I'm fine using it in science, I just have never found an ounce of passion for math by itself.
I appreciate it for what it is though, without mathematical advancement, essentially we would still be a bunch of men and women in animal skin clothing running around the forests of the world.
The bad news? I have to work that day, and may miss it. :(
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
12:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1000 hPa) located at 9.7N 111.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.0N 110.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 10.7N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 11.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..
---
thinks JMA needs to reconsider intensity at 6:00 am.
Agreed.
Check this out from Mc Allen Texas^ crazy rain amounts from that powerful cell.
Other bad new... If that senerio unfolds, the same areas that got hammered in April last year are going to get another lick!
Nah, I think it'll be farther south. And I'm not just saying that because that puts me directly in the path.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
ROGER MILLS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 100 AM CDT
* AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CRAWFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHEYENNE...STRONG CITY...CRAWFORD...DURHAM AND ROLL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WHICH MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE
TO PROPERTY. TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY FLOOD LOW CREEKS...DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.
sup
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 142E-160E SOUTH OF 10S
2:30 pm EST March 30 2012
===================================
At 1:00pm EST, A low pressure system was located to the south of the Solomon Islands near 11.5S 157.5E. The low is forecast to move to the east of 160E, out of the Coral Sea outlook area, during Saturday. The low is expected to gradually intensify, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. This system is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Very Low
Just got done doing the dishes. I plan to enjoy my next two days off.
I think tropical cyclones are an occasional feature in the general circulation. They require very special conditions to form and some years we have had hardly any in the Atlantic basin. I don't think they could be said to serve any particular purpose in the general circulation--not that a teleological (groan) way of explaining things is really desirable anyway.
The general circulation rocks along either with or without TC's. The TPW seems to offer a pretty good picture of how tropical moisture (latent heat) moves up into the middle latitudes. It's them atmospheric rivers I hear tell of such as those which sometimes result in amazing deluges in Califor-ni-ay. link and link
I know that the "tropical cyclones transport heat to the poles" idea is repeated over and over in popular articles, but the people saying it are not thinking critically. I think it is in the class of scientific myth like the idea that the Gulf Stream is what keeps western Europe warm. To be fair, the extent of these atmospheric rivers has not always been known. Dr. M says:
"Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed."
Kind of a trip to think that satellite images can be labeled "traditional". We are always learning new stuff. My take on the origin of the tropical-cyclone-heat-to-poles thing is that when a TC moves into the mid-latitudes it is embedded in an atmospheric river (since dry air is a killer). People mistook the TC for the other, much much more common phenomena, but that's just a guess.
No, it's simple meteorology. Just like a cooler Gulf of Guinea promotes stronger tropical waves.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
15:00 PM JST March 30 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (998 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.9N 110.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.5N 108.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.3N 106.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Additional Information
=======================
Tropical storm will move at the same speed for the next 72 hours
Tropical storm will move west for the next 24 hours then move west northwest
Tropical storm will keep present intensity for the next 24 hours
Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.0 after 24 hours
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
From NWS SRH:
"Therein shows the purpose of tropical cyclones. Their role is to take heat, stored in the ocean, and transfer it to the upper atmosphere where the upper level winds carry that heat to the poles. This keeps the polar regions from being as cold as they could be and helps keep the tropics from overheating."
It is a fundamental tendency in the Earth's circulation to perform this heat transfer in an attempt to balance the heat budget between the equator and the poles. Tropical cyclones can probably be thought of as more of a result of the magnitude of this imbalance. The stronger the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles, the more frequent strong surges of upward motion in the tropics caused by tropical cyclones would become. Even AGW theory addresses this somewhat by stating that total tropical cyclone numbers would decrease as the polar regions warm faster than the equator.
Maybe some decent storms today...
Flash flooding has cut highways and forced evacuations in Fiji, with residents sheltering from rising waters on rooftops as authorities scrambled to find rescue boats....
Disaster management office Dismac said a "massive" number of people were stranded on rooftops awaiting rescue and appealed for anyone with a boat to help relief efforts.
"We've got a lot of reports of people on rooftops, it's quite a massive number," Dismac director Pajiliai Dobui said.
"If people in these areas have boats, we're asking them to make them available, as the little we have is not enough."
The National Weather Forecasting Centre predicted the rain would continue until at least Sunday, accompanied by strong winds on Saturday.
That is a very nice tornado video, but it doesn't look 'weak' to me :/
Assessing the Climate Footprint of Tropical Cyclones: Pertinent Players or Irrelevant Pawns?
Viewing: 701 - 751
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