Spring 2012 in the contiguous U.S. demolished the old records for hottest spring and most extreme season of any kind, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. With the warmest March, third warmest April, and second warmest May, the March - April - May spring season was 5.2°F above average--the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States. What's truly remarkable is the margin the old record was broken by--spring 2012 temperatures were a full 1°F above the previous most extreme season, the winter of 1999 - 2000. All-time seasonal temperature records are very difficult to break, and are usually broken by only a tenth of a degree. To see the old record crushed by a full degree is a stunning and unparalleled event in U.S. meteorological history.
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for spring 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Thirty-one states were record warm for the 3-month period, and an additional eleven states had top-ten warmth. Spring 2012 beat the previous record for hottest spring on record, set in 1910, by an remarkable 2°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
U.S. heat over the past 12 months: a one in half-a-million event
The U.S. record for hottest 12-month period fell for the second straight month in May. The June 2011 - May 2012 temperatures smashed the previous record by a startling 0.4°F, which is a huge margin to break a record by for a 1-year period. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Thirty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional ten states were top ten warm. Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 531,441. Thus, we should only see one more 12-month period so warm between now and 46,298 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as during the past 118 years. The unusual warmth was due, in part, to a La Niña event in the Pacific that altered jet stream patterns, keeping the polar jet stream much farther to the north than usual. However, it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 12 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month, 5-month, and 3-month periods.
Figure 2. Three of the top ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 3. The average temperature during January - May 2012 was the warmest on record: 5°F above the 20th century average for the period, and 1.3°F above the previous record set in 2000. January - May temperatures have been rising at about 1.8°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Second warmest May, warmest year-to-date period on record
May 2012 was the second warmest May in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Twenty-six states had a top-ten warmest May, and no states had a top-ten coolest May. The January - May 2012 period was the warmest January - May period since record keeping began in 1895, with temperatures 5°F above the 20th century average for the period. This broke the previous record set in 2000 by an unusually large margin--1.3°F.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March - April - May) shows that 2012 had the most extreme spring on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Most extreme spring and January - May period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the spring March - April - May period. This is more than twice the average value, and spring 2012 was the most extreme season of any kind in U.S. history. A list of the top five most extreme seasons since 1910, as computed using the CEI, show that two of the three most extreme seasons in U.S. history occurred in the past 12 months:
Spring 2012: 44%
Winter 1979: 42%
Summer 2011: 39%
Fall 1985: 39%
Spring 1934: 38%
Remarkably, 81% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during spring 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during spring was 18%, which was the 19th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were the 8th largest on record. The year-to-date January - May period was also the most extreme such period in U.S. history, with a CEI of 43%. Climate change theory predicts that, in general, the climate should warm, wet areas should get wetter, and dry areas should get drier. The spring 2012 Climate Extremes Index reflects this pattern.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. None of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic through June 15.
Jeff Masters
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Personally I think a more southerly track is likely but the intensity seems about right.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
616 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR
MANATEE HEAD.
HEAVY RAIN FROM YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT THE MANATEE RIVER
NEAR MYAKKA HEAD INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER WILL CREST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...
STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.
&&
FLC081-092316-
/O.EXT.KTBW.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120610T1108Z/
/MKHF1.1.ER.120609T0040Z.120609T1200Z.120610T0508 Z.NO/
616 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012
...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
* AT 5 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.0 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...A PRIVATE ROAD AND BRIDGE 1 MILE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD.
AGRICULTURAL, AND RURAL KIBLER AREA BEGINS TO FLOOD.
&&
FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SUN MON TUE WED THU
MANATEE
MYAKKA HEAD 11 12.6 SAT 05 AM 11.0 10.0 8.0 5.0 5.0
where does the euro storm go?
i think this year is the year of the TAMPACASTER...
lol
Well, if you were to ask me, it would matter on how strong the tornado/hurricane is.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUN 9 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Remember - the 06z and the 18z model runs are usually less accurate than the 00z and the 12z, which have been tending to show stronger systems.
drought relief, it could actually rain all the way up until possible chris nears the area.
The run ends there.
We'll probably see an invest today.
i see the Canadian Model is on Crack again but it has been somewhat accurate lately.
Plus it kept chris for 2 runs so we can assume that is not an accident anymore.
Given that run:
DOOMCON LEVEL = 1.91 VERY LOW
None! They did mention, in the local discussion, the uncertainty that they would make it all the way across. When I checked at 3am there was a bowing segment coming across the lake towards NE PBC but, it must have weakened as I didn't hear anything special.
Experimental FIM Model Fields
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
728 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
ALC097-091515-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0022.120609T1228Z-120609T1515Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MOBILE AL-
728 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...
* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
* AT 720 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ADVISORY AREA HAS PRODUCED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 4 AM
AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1015 AM CDT.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR IN MOBILE SUGGESTS THAT PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA...BETWEEN TILLMANS CORNER AND GRAND BAY...HAVE SEEN UPWARDS
OF 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE...LOWER LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIDTOWN MOBILE... WEST MOBILE... CODEN...
TILLMANS CORNER... THEODORE... TANNER WILLIAMS...
I10 AND I65... GRAND BAY... BAYOU LA BATRE...
My PWS is registering 6.5" since yesterday
dont forget me and pat.
NOLACASTERS
pretty accurate forecasted Alberto and Beyrl accurately
don't forget Noaa's FIM
The FIM model
Good morning everybody.
I haven't read up what you all have been up to overnight yet but over here, apparently some of Wales is flooded. In fact quote of the day, (so far) is :-
"I've never seen the river as high as it has been. It came as a shock to everybody."
"The situation became so severe that a helicopter was used to rescue the inshore lifeboat crews, who were winched to safety."
The above line and doubtless a lot more in the same vein came from this post from the BBC. (we call it 'auntie,'):-
(Wait till things really get rolling!)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-18378124
"Briticanes,"
Helicopters, lifeboats. fire services all involved.
Global warming flexing its muscles a bit like your US Bastaredi. or whoever.
no,what is skin temp
I don't think they are getting much better every year...been forecasting week 2 for 15 years now at an energy company, and the models are just as bad as they were 10 years ago, but maybe slightly better.
Sure hope there are no casualties from the flooding.
I do agree progress has been slower than one would like, especially since nobody's been able to figure out the magic formula for intensity, which influences everything else.
Good Morning to you WKC and everyone else. I still thinkLink whatever storm we make get in June is going to come out of the SW Caribbean, looks the seedlings to it maybe in the early stages now! What's your take ?
With me being a bit dim and uninitiated, as I started to read back on the nights affrays, I noticed that there might be evidence of a major battle on page "17"
There seems to be missing posts,:-
801, 802, 806, 809,811, 813, 817, 918, 819 820, 822, 826, 831, 832, 834, 837, 838:-
There could be other pages I have not yet had time to probe, with the same problems?
Was there some kind of early morning genocide, or "Blogoside," on here?
Or is this mealy a reaction to the side effects of the Flame virus, which is affecting a lot of the other parts of the world whose occupants normally don't speak English for some unfathomable reason?
This is what an upward phase of the MJO can do.
WOW notice how the shear in caribbean has decrease a lot. And there's a big pocket of <10 knots of shears in the Eastern Atlantic.
No!
The Yawn,stretch is for you over on your side!
Ive been working all morning since 7am. 2am US East time and just got back home.
What happened on page "17" to have lost all those "cherished posts?"
Its 3.30 PM here now.
Eh, we don't get them often, but to say we don't get them at all would be highly incorrect. Pinellas County where I live has recorded at least 4 F3 or high tornadoes and 1 F4. I personally know a friend who's house and some of their neighbors homes were destroyed from an EF2 that started as a strong waterspout and came onshore as a tornado. They were on vacation when a friend called them saying their house was totaled by a tornado. This is only about 5 miles from me and it wasn't that long ago...
What am I missing??
try around 240 hrs ;):
it pops up near the tip of Cuba, goes west NE toward FL but for some reason turns West and starts heading for TX, at 240hr it is going almost due west.
Link
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