Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Interview with the NW Florida Daily News - Part 2
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 05:12 PM GMT am 05. Juni 2006 +0
This is part 2 of an interview I did with the Nothwest Florida Daily News of Fort Walton Beach, Florida, that was published on Sunday, May 28. The questions were posed to me by Del Stone Jr., Deputy Managing Editor and self-admitted weather nut. I'll be back to live blogging on June 14.

Q. Your bio indicates you faced a life-threatening situation while flying into Hurricane Hugo. Would you care to elaborate?

A. We were the first plane to intercept Hugo out near Barbados, and we elected to fly in at 1500 feet, expecting it to be a Category 3 storm (based on satellite estimates). Hugo turned out to be a Category 5, and nearly killed us. We hit 190 mph winds and 5.6 g's of acceleration in the eyewall (the wings are supposed to tear off at 6 g's), and had an engine catch on fire. The pilot lost control of the airplane, and we plummeted to 800 feet above the water before the pilot was able to regain control and extinguish the engine fire as we popped into the eye. Of course, our troubles weren't over then. We were in the eye of a Category 5 hurricane, had only three engines working, and needed to get through the eyewall again to escape. It's quite a story, and I have a long account posted on the tropical page of our web site, complete with photos I took in the eye.

Q. The evacuation for Hurricane Opal in 1995 was a debacle, with thousands of people stranded on highways as the hurricane struck. Afterwards, the National Hurricane Center seemed to revise its standards for evacuation, urging people to run from the water, hide from the wind. Assuming you agree with that assessment, how would you advise people in hurricane-prone areas to handle the question of evacuation?

A. If you have the flexibility, it is good to leave on your own a day before a likely evacuation order is issued. If I lived in the Keys, I would be out of there at the first hint of something serious that might move through. It takes a full 72 hours to evacuate Keys, I would be out of there at the first hint of something serious that might move through. It takes a full 72 hours to evacuate the Keys, and hurricanes like Rita and Wilma that intensify from tropical storm strength to Category 5 in about a day don't give us enough time to evacuate this highly vulnerable region.

In general, if you are still at home when the evacuation order is given, and live in a low-lying area at high risk of a storm surge, get out. Even if the highways are clogged, your chances of survival are still better than being on the coast. But as we saw during the evacuation of Houston during Hurricane Rita, and in Florida during Opal of 1995, evacuating from the wind doesn't always make sense. In fact, some estimates put the death toll from the evacuation due to Hurricane Rita at over 150 people, 23 of them when a bus carrying 45 nursing home evacuees erupted into flames and exploded on Interstate 45. Not counting Katrina, that's a higher death toll than any hurricane since Camille of 1969 (256 deaths). So, I think we need to think hard about evacuating the very sick and elderly from the wind. But, I've heard from a lot of people who've had bad experiences trying to ride out a hurricane in an evacuation zone. The mantra I've heard so many times, is, "I'll never ignore another evacuation order!" Your best bet is to always heed the evacuation order.

Q. Many people have become critical of media coverage of hurricanes. Television clips of correspondents standing in high winds as debris flies about have become commonplace. Do you feel this approach sensationalizes storm coverage? Do you believe it sets a bad example for viewers, encouraging them to do the same? What about be concentrated coverage from weather-exclusive entities like The Weather Channel? Does such coverage skew context, giving viewers an unrealistic picture of a storm's threat?

A. I don't believe a significant number of viewers will seek to go out in a hurricane in imitation of what they see TV reporters doing. However, hurricanes coverage is too sensationalized and over-hyped for my liking. Hurricane have become entertainment. One of these days, a reporter is going to get seriously injured by flying debris. I've championed on my blog the idea of having reporters doing their show from a safe place out of the wind, and sending wind-up toys out into wind to be blown away for dramatic effect. TV stations can make a creative and dramatic demonstration of the wind's power without endangering the lives of reporters.

Hurricanes are sensational enough in their own right, and do not need dramatization. My philosophy is to simply report from my own deep knowledge and understanding of these great storms, and not try to generate more hype in an effort to drive up ratings. In contrast, Accuweather's recent press release that the Northeast U.S. might be the target of a major hurricane this season was an excessively sensational."The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," the article said. Language like this is effective in scaring people and driving up ratings, but is not an effective way of warning people in the Northeast of the true risks they face this year. Everyone living on the Atlantic Ocean is at risk, every year.

To be continued...

Jeff Masters
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Reader Comments
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401. NAtlanticCyclone 12:43 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Any thoughts about the Northeast cyclone right now. It's currently going to bring in rotating rain bands.
402. franck 12:51 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Wondered when hurricanes were going to start looking like swastikas.
Member Since: August 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1150
403. Shadyguy 01:27 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
I gotta give you this, Hurricane Chaser.
You are wierd, but you are a polite and nice guy. I mean that sincerely.

But you are so wordy.........
404. ProgressivePulse 01:28 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
African Coast is looking rather saucy as of late around 10N
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4322
405. sayhuh 01:34 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Wow...Chaser..you are feelin it tonight! So verbose! I had to pull out my special blog bookmark to get through all that. Just joking with you!!!
406. SAINTHURRIFAN 01:46 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
he

y chase quick comment to you that i made to lefty
last year when he bashed old bastardi when i gave proof over and over
how he won more than he lost against nhc i got my awnser thus blog is dominated
by max jokefields kin and masters lord thats unappropriate last name for that clowninlaws lol well a lot of us like accupro thats why i pay for it and well satisfied but i like this group to
better than general hospital. as far as all our opinions well they are likea--holes we all got one still love yall
and give old storm drop a break he has put up with the saints as long as i have enough to cause brain damage. durn tony this post is as long as yours lol
god bless billy
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 668
407. NAtlanticCyclone 01:46 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Low pressure off of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina supposed to be anything other then a rogue system. Comments? Oh and I updated my blog. Care for a record 5 comments this time.
408. bappit 01:50 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Houston Press spoof of hurrican hype.

Member Since: Mai 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4358
409. bappit 01:52 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
bingo


LMAO!!!!
Member Since: Mai 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4358
410. snowboy 01:52 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
whoo hoo, we're sure being eccentric today - guess all the waiting for what we know is coming is getting to people..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
411. ProgressivePulse 02:00 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Chaser is quick to the gun but, he speaks the truth and that is it. Some don't like the hardlined aproach he takes but, hey this is America and everyone is entitled thier opinion, some just choose to be abrasive, for what reason I have no Idea.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4322
412. hurricanechaser 02:05 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
I wonder how anyone can think there was anything inappropriate much less hardline on anyone in my posts for I was actually defending STORMTOP not rediculing him if I am understanding it correctly.

If I am not, please forgive the confusion.:)

413. NAtlanticCyclone 02:07 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Link
Image of the Low pressure system off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Water Vapor Satellite Imagery. Look at the large swath of tropical air coming towards the southeastern Massachusetts area. I just heard Jim Cantore on the weather channel talking about 2 - 4 inches of rain to the east of I91 or is it I95 that's the only one I could think off.
414. NAtlanticCyclone 02:12 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Yes. My first posted link worked with animation. I got 3 comments lets stride for 5 please this time. Great comments so far agreeing with me. Just need two more and that makes my day. By the way, this will be another two more gloomy and tropical days for us. Could this be another reason for Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Forecast this year, especially after mentioning last October. THis is almost a similar situation, but without a tropical cyclone going by like Wilma did last year.
415. hurricanechaser 02:13 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
LOL Shadyguy,

I can accept being considered "weird" for we all here have different views on many different issues but I have learned that all that should matter here is our common appreciation for weather that unites us.

By the way, thanks for the kind words for I would rather be respected for genuinely being nice to others than any knowledge I may have or anything else that is secondary to me personally.

I will add that I wholeheartedly agree with those who say I am too wordy, I struggle not to be honestly.:)


416. moocrew 02:13 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Hello Everybody....... Found this article today and thought it was intersting.....so posting the link of it here Newsweek What are your thoughts on this and do you think we in the States should also be trying this for sporting events and such? After reading the artcle it gave me an uneasy feeling since i don't think we should be messing with the weather.
417. NAtlanticCyclone 02:14 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
I'm heading off to bed. I'll be back for twenty minutes after five o'clock to check back with you guys to see what's happening then its off to school. Bye.
418. bappit 02:18 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Sounds like they've checked out this blog. From the Houston Press article:

AccuWeather is calling for hurricanes to hit Texas in June or July. Other weather junkies dismiss that claim as being impossible to predict, and good only for hyping the AccuWeather brand.
Member Since: Mai 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4358
419. StormJunkie 02:18 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Just stopped in before heading to bed. EVeryone have a great night. I will be back in more when we have a storm. I am swamped with the site. I have updated the tropical page on the site and would love to have any input.

StormJunkie.com

Thanks
SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218
420. hurricanechaser 02:19 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Hey Billy,

I honestly have no knowledge of how accurate Accuweather is with their forecasts much less in comparison with the NHC.

It is only my personal opinion (nothing more) that the NHC is the first stop one should make before even considering forecasts from any other source.

However, I respect your opinion as well and take your word for it that Accuweather is another excellent source.

Thanks for the post and it is great hearing from you as always.

Most sincerely,
Tony


421. Astinus 02:19 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Anyone read the article on LiveScience.com about CloudSat?

New Satellite Provides 'Breathtaking' Views Inside Storms

Imagine a network of these orbiting.
Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 24
422. hurricanechaser 02:21 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Have a great night NAtlantic.:)
423. hurricanechaser 02:27 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Hey Moocrew,

I am with you on that one for I believe such attempts at modifying natural weather cycles could produce a far worse consequence than letting nature take its course.
424. bappit 02:30 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Cool link, Astinus. Thanks!
Member Since: Mai 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4358
425. louastu 02:38 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
To my knowledge, Accuweather never actually predicted that Texas will have a tropical storm/hurricane. They simply said that they feel that the Texas coast is at a high risk in the early part of the hurricane season.

To me, this is a far cry from saying they will have a tropical system.
426. moocrew 02:46 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Oh i'm sure that fact would change if one does hit the Texas coast.........I'm sure they would say they predicted it.
427. HadesGodWyvern 02:48 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
heh
Member Since: Mai 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684
428. code1 03:21 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Ahhhh, I tried Dr. M. Looks to be that you are doomed for loooong blog space take up this year. BTW, I have seen ridiculous spelled wrong so many times here...it is spelled "ridiculous"!! We all have misspelled words as we type, but that one is a constant, whether it is used telling one they are so, or that their forecasts are. Have a good night all!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
429. weatherguy03 03:24 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Looks like a missed the party tonite!..LOL Oh well, there will be many nights of fun this season!!..LOL See ya!
Member Since: Juli 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29680
431. HadesGodWyvern 03:36 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
yup I can't spell Caribbean either =/
Member Since: Mai 24, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36684
433. Levi32 04:51 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Hey guys, just checking in before bed. I would like to point out a couple different models which are forecasting a storm in the Caribbean besides the CMC. First, as some of you already know, the NAM(ETA) model has been consisistantly developing the Caribbean system for the last 2 days. Here is tonight's 0z 84-hour forecast. Next is the NAM-WRF model, which bombs a hurricane in the same location as the NAM. Here is tonight's 84-hour forecast. The GFS is still hesitant to indicate development, but still hints at it. Bottom line: watch the Caribbean this week.

See you all tomorrow!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441
434. Levi32 04:56 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Oops sorry the NAM-WRF link didn't work. Here it is:

[URL=http://www.picfury.com/19/NAMWRF Hurricane-1.html][IMG]http://www.picfury.com/19/NAMWRF Hurricane-1-th.png[/IMG][/URL][URL=http://www.picfury.com/index.php][IMG]http://www.picfury.com/img/banner7.png[/IMG][/URL]
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441
435. Levi32 04:57 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Again:

Free image hosting
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441
436. Levi32 04:58 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Just click on it for larger version. Have a great night everyone!
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441
437. code1 05:37 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Chaser, your humble opinion has no bearing on what I feel or don't feel. You read my post today and wrote your blog. Fine, your choice. However, I really see no need for you to answer everyone, when they are not even addressing you, with long posts. If you want to answer that way, please do it in your own blog. So many people rely on the main blog here that never post. Why should they have to read throgh your long posts to get through it? Your right to post answers, forecasts, and opinions here, the same as the rest. Just don't post a dissertation every time! You are correct, respect is needed here, but, you have to earn it.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
438. code1 05:39 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
And BTW, you saw yourself in my post without me naming you. If the shoe fits......
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
439. snowboy 05:40 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Levi32 thanks for sticking with this - we will worship at your feet if you called this one correctly..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
441. Alec 05:45 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Shear may completely collapse by June 12 and during that time we may be facing some very hot weather
444. snowboy 05:51 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Thanks Alec - the days of peace and quiet are clearly numbered, as SSTs rise and shear drops.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
445. snowboy 05:53 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
cheers code1, have a good night, and keep your eye on the tropics..
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
446. Alec 05:53 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Yes Michael, but the models are forecasting some extreme temperatures with a huge dome of high pressure over the SE around that time(same time they will get hot)......
448. Alec 05:56 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
CMC model now thinks whatever this low will form will now hit the Panhandle..link
451. code1 05:58 AM GMT am 07. Juni 2006    
Thanks snowboy, cheers to you as well. And living where I do, I always keep my eye on them! Good job Levi!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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