Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Watching two waves
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 06:44 PM GMT am 26. Juli 2005 +0
The tropics remain relatively quiet today. Franklin continues to barely struggle along, and a few modest tropical waves are moving across the far Atlantic. One of these waves, located near 9N 42W, shows some promise for development. It lies over farly warm 29C waters and has some favorable upper level winds over it. As long as the wave maintains its current west-northwest motion at 15 mph, it will stay over warm water and have a chance to develop. But as you can see from the SST plot below, any northward deviation to a latitude north of about 11N will bring it over waters less than 27C, which is the minimum temperature needed for tropical storm formation. A second wave near 12N 30W, just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, showed some increase in convection the past few hours, and looks more promising than the first wave. However, this wave is very close the the cooler water boundary, so any northward component to its motion would dampen its chances of development. The wave is currently moving west at 10 - 15 mph. The GFS model doesn't develop either of these waves into tropical depressions over the next four days.





Dr. Jeff Masters

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701. cjnew 07:57 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
kool i wont go crazy this time........i think i was the one who messed it up last time
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
702. Alec 07:57 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
you stole the honor iyou. cj wanted to be post #700. well congrats anyway.
703. cjnew 07:58 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
did we get it yet
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
704. Alec 07:58 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
cj. try again later.
705. cjnew 07:59 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
thats ok i got it last time....congrats to iyou yay!!!!!!!
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
706. iyou 07:59 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
didn't mean to - talk to you to-morrow maybe and i definitely want to see whay stormtop has to say - dire or no good-night
Member Since: Juli 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
707. cjnew 07:59 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
oh yeah anytime alec.......this weekend we'll go for 800 or 900
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
708. Alec 08:00 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
need a party to celebrate 3 days in a row of breaking all kinds of records!
709. cjnew 08:00 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
thanks bunches for helping iyou...later
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
710. Alec 08:01 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
thats a fair assessment. good nite iyou. say it cj-
711. cjnew 08:01 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
we sure do everyone will be proud
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
712. iyou 08:01 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
thanks-it was great - stormtop here to-morrow - i mean, later
Member Since: Juli 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
713. cjnew 08:01 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
ha! i beat you
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
714. Alec 08:02 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
pride goes before honor. i think.
715. cjnew 08:02 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
ok ....goodnite
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
716. Alec 08:03 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
it was nice breaking another record cj.
717. cjnew 08:03 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
well alec we did it....we should go to bed so we can try and see stormtoppy
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
718. Alec 08:04 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
they'll think we're crazy tomorrow.
719. cjnew 08:04 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
yes it was goodnite
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
720. cjnew 08:04 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
thats what i thought, we kinda are
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
721. iyou 08:05 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
are you still muttering to each other - get to bed already
Member Since: Juli 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5219
722. Alec 08:05 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
nite nite sweet dreams! the suns coming up in a few hours. see ya -later(im gone really this time cj)
723. cjnew 08:06 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
ok good nite iyou and alec......here i go ............cj...............OUT!!!
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
724. Alec 08:06 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
lying to myself. not!!!!!!!
725. Alec 08:07 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
bye to all!-----------------------------later
726. redavni 08:07 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
"Ocean spray lubricates hurricane winds"

Link


...I didn't regularily visit this site before the blogs, so maybe the community hung out somewhere else on the site I haven't seen yet, but it's interesting to see such an active community form so quickly around the new blogs. I guess weather is one thing everyone has in common.
727. cjnew 08:08 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
hey who are you???
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
728. cjnew 08:10 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
oh well talk to everyone tomorroe or later today i guess....................cj..............OUT!!!
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
729. redavni 08:52 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Just a friendly lurker :)
730. Alec 11:18 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
friendly lurker???? lol nice to se ya on here. Good morning yall.yesterday it was the slowest day up till when cj came on. the the real fun started.lol i hafta go. be back later this afternoon.
731. WSI 12:22 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Ok everyone, I have a post set up in my blog for the link swaps (so they are all in one place).

In case you missed it yesterday, a few of us were interested in the links others were using. Now we can post some of our links so others can hopefully use them as well.

My blog..

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/WSI/show.html


I have added some of my links already. :)
732. oriondarkwood 01:08 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Morning people,

Finally the heatwave has broke around here, its a nice 70 degrees some 15 degrees cooler than yesterday around this time. We had a couple of thunderstorms last night, nothing major (didn't even turn off the computer). To the south and west they got the more powerful ones.. A good downpour this morning so far about .5 inch - 1 inch or rain (good thing cause my grass was looking mighty brown).
Member Since: Juli 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 41
733. punkasshans 01:49 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
68 F here in bloomington, IN

Sadly, we didnt get many storms, just some lightning to our north
734. whirlwind 01:51 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
morning peeps-

Well it looks like one of them waves will turn into a hurricane, says the gfs model. And it looks like its coming right for Florida. Back me up Stormtop...(will the old people finally leave the state? lol)

And wouldnt it be funny if Franklin does a loop-de-loops and comes back west for revenge?
735. EmmyRose 01:57 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Good Morning y'all
Member Since: Juli 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76398
736. punkasshans 01:57 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Franklin is done. . no use worrying about it anymore.

But half the models seem to think a storm will develop soon out in the atlantic. Looks "promising"
737. EmmyRose 02:00 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Thanks for those links WSI
Member Since: Juli 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76398
738. Jedkins 02:02 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Well being in florida and all looks I'll have alot to watch.
739. oriondarkwood 02:06 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Punk,

Should have been out there doing the raindance or aleast wash your car (ie always seems to rain after you wash your car). I don't dare wash mine scared it fall apart. ie I drive a 91 Nissian Sentra that is a rust bucket, has 180K miles on it, exhaust leak(s) but runs like a champ. Not to mention it was cheap ($300). I going to drive it into the ground then buy another beater (been doing that all my life, only new cars I owned my wife has driven)
Member Since: Juli 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 41
740. punkasshans 02:13 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
I have a '91 Nissan 240SX, so i can understand what you mean. Only 109k on my car, however. I dont think I have washed it in months. Maybe, just maybe, i should do that.
741. sittingwetinflorida 02:15 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
well...we shall see what we shall see, and i envy everyone up there in the north w/ the low 70's upper 60's...down here in fl its not much past 10am and its already like 92
742. oriondarkwood 02:30 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Punk,

Nissian's, Toyoto's and Honda's last forever, if you treat them right (engines seem to last much longer than the bodies). I have owned 3 Nissian's (including my current car), 2 Toyoto's and 2 Honda's. All of them where over 100K when purchased or I drove them over 100K, Both the Toyoto's and Honda's I owned where over 200K miles on them when I sold them (original engines). My dad still owns one of my Toyoto's and its pushing 400K (of course this is down south where the winter salt doesn't eat the body for breakfast). And of the ones I sold I sold them/gave them away because the cost of repairing a part was more than I purchased the car for (all the cars in question I purchased for under $1500). In case your are wondering I been driving for 18 years (more like 25 if you count driving cars and tractors around on the farm) I have owned 12 cars
Member Since: Juli 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 41
743. cornflake826 02:35 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Good Morning all, so it looks like FL is a target in a week, not good, hoping we would be spared on the east coast this year, but it looks like I will be looking at a 100% rate increase on my homeowners insurance next year. Thats if one of these storms dont rip my mobile home into shreads.
744. EmmyRose 02:37 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
I have a yellow VWBug 2001 and I love it - does well in all kinds of weather - even flooding - for some reason my car makes all the deep water - I guess it's the floating effect
Member Since: Juli 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76398
745. EmmyRose 02:38 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
How do you know Florida is going to get hit what is everyone looking at
Member Since: Juli 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76398
746. EmmyRose 02:41 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
What's with Franklin? Why doesn't this thing get a life?
Member Since: Juli 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76398
747. cornflake826 02:41 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
The long term models have been picking up at least 2 storms forming and coming in this general direction from the bahamas
748. EmmyRose 02:42 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Sorry for you :-( happy for Texas :-)
Member Since: Juli 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76398
749. EmmyRose 02:45 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Guess Im talking to myself this morning -
Member Since: Juli 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76398
750. punkasshans 02:45 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Orion,

My car already has had its engine melt (i over heated it the second day i got it). Wasnt a fault on my behalf, but more from the previous owner. But oh well, we got a "new" 70,000 mile engine. Hopefully it will last a long time now.

EVERYONE,

Remember that the models are VERY poor at predicting cyclogenisis. In other words, if they show a storm developing on the model, it does not mean 100% that a storm will be created.
751. EmmyRose 02:47 PM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
That's why I asking how did they know so far out in advance Punkass
Member Since: Juli 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76398

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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