Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Watching two waves
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 06:44 PM GMT am 26. Juli 2005 +0
The tropics remain relatively quiet today. Franklin continues to barely struggle along, and a few modest tropical waves are moving across the far Atlantic. One of these waves, located near 9N 42W, shows some promise for development. It lies over farly warm 29C waters and has some favorable upper level winds over it. As long as the wave maintains its current west-northwest motion at 15 mph, it will stay over warm water and have a chance to develop. But as you can see from the SST plot below, any northward deviation to a latitude north of about 11N will bring it over waters less than 27C, which is the minimum temperature needed for tropical storm formation. A second wave near 12N 30W, just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, showed some increase in convection the past few hours, and looks more promising than the first wave. However, this wave is very close the the cooler water boundary, so any northward component to its motion would dampen its chances of development. The wave is currently moving west at 10 - 15 mph. The GFS model doesn't develop either of these waves into tropical depressions over the next four days.





Dr. Jeff Masters

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151. cjnew 02:11 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
hi!
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
152. Alec 02:12 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
that was kinda random randyman.
153. deb1 10:13 PM GMT am 26. Juli 2005    
From what Jeff has written to me in the past on this very subject - I emailed him when the blog suddenly widened to two screen widths instead of the 'wrap round and fit on the page' view we usually have - he said they have some software issues with it, because of the number of people, when they try to simultaneously post, and when people include in their post a large URL which is wider than the normal page. I still don't see how this would make the comments disappear in chunks now and then.
Member Since: Juli 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
154. deb1 02:14 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
hi, cj. Alec, was that the one that was an Ode to Emily?
Member Since: Juli 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
155. Alec 02:17 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
no, it was about the next 3 hurricanes. practically he said board up and hide in the end.
156. Alec 02:18 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
got kicked off again. cj have you been spectating us all day?
157. cjnew 02:19 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
no not really just checked in all day to see what was going on here and there
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
158. Alec 02:19 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
cj probably got kicked off too.
159. Alec 02:20 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
you saw stormtop's poem right cj?
160. cjnew 02:22 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
yes i must say it was pretty good.....it took him 15 hours to post it so i expexted it to be good........
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
161. cjnew 02:23 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
expected**
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
162. cjnew 02:24 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
i really liked the email that Mobilehurricane posted on the other blog
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
163. Alec 10:24 PM GMT am 26. Juli 2005    
i think stormtop should make a forecast for the pacific.
164. Alec 02:25 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
then one for Siberia.
165. cjnew 02:25 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
well i dont think he was too far off on the atlantic.....thos three waves look interesting
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
166. Alec 02:27 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
yeah. stormtop has 5 more days for them to form.
167. orlandocanewatcher 02:27 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Hi all. having been reading and learning from all of you for the last few days. just picked up the "sport" of hurricane watching after last year. boy did we get a rude awakening...
168. cjnew 02:28 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
i agree orlando ....hurricanes really should work on their manners
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
169. Alec 02:28 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
hi orlandocanewatcher. cj say hi.
170. cjnew 02:30 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
hello orladocanewatcher...its fun too watch the canes just dont let it take over your life like.....like me
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
171. Alec 02:31 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
haha. lol. cj you crack me up.
172. orlandocanewatcher 10:32 PM GMT am 26. Juli 2005    
still trying to figure out how to work this crazy system. once you post how do you continue to read what everyone is saying back? I had to go back to the beginning of the blog and start over???
173. Alec 02:32 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
a think solar flares are boring.
174. orlandocanewatcher 02:34 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
these things have already taken over my life. Last year I would spontaneously wake up at 4:55 am to check the 5am update. It really is a sickness
175. cjnew 02:34 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
i dont know if you read where i said yesterday that i was going to start using my blog.......like making predictions and stuff and using the cj biggie size scale........will be somewhat scientific...but always weather related......just to ad fun to forcasting and stuff
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
176. Alec 02:35 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
easy answer: "error this page cannot be displayed" just hit the back button orlando.
177. Alec 02:35 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
forecasting*
178. deb1 10:35 PM GMT am 26. Juli 2005    
Thanks Alec, for inspiring me to check the other blog from where I left off yesterday. it was a scream, especially mobilehurricane's post called Hurricane Season. That one deserves to get emailed around.

I really liked txweather and EmmyRose's poems. Here they are again for anyone who missed them. For those who are nostalgic about the past (hope you don't mind, txweather and EmmyRose):

(by txweather)
"An ode to Emily"

Emily your eye was blue
Emily Emily we barely knew you
Emily sorry we missed you

Emily Emily we thought you'd end
hitting the big bend
as forecasted by our friend

No emily its bye bye
oh why, why did you fill your eye.....

(by EmmyRose)
Gert, Gert you little twerp
Snuck on in, but you were barely a blurp

Got us excited here on the blog
even StormTop was all agog

was it your name that made you displeased?
Or the high or low that made you leave

Gert Gert come back again
We promise you a better name
One you can live up to
and not feel ashamed.
Member Since: Juli 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
179. cjnew 02:36 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
lol orlando.....Alec solar flares are cool
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
180. cjnew 02:36 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
i meant hot** lol
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
181. cjnew 02:37 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
seriously what does the e change
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
182. Alec 02:37 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
thanks deb1
183. orlandocanewatcher 02:37 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
thanks alec
184. Alec 02:38 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
it changes a mispelled word into a real word.
185. cjnew 02:39 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
thanks deb1 .....i agree mobilehurricanes post was hilarious.......i love the past
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
186. orlandocanewatcher 02:39 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
well, I'm a nurse and must go for a few to check up on everyone. Will be back later.
187. cjnew 02:40 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
oh yes, it sure does didnt think of that.......like the fact i can use imaginary words though
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
188. Alec 10:40 PM GMT am 26. Juli 2005    
i thrusted into the past a few minutes ago. hate seeing the june30 blog every other day.
189. deb1 02:40 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Alec, what changes a misspelt word into a real word? what's with the correction of the typo's guys? Are you and cjnew practising to become English teachers?
Member Since: Juli 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
190. cjnew 02:41 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
bye OCW
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
191. Alec 02:41 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
practicing* yep.
192. cjnew 02:42 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
cjnew hates english.just speak it.........if ya didnt notice
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
193. deb1 02:42 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Alec, in American, do you spell practice always with a 'c'?
Member Since: Juli 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
194. Alec 02:43 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
i cant speak right but know how to spell really good.
195. deb1 02:43 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
That doesn't answer my question...:-(
Member Since: Juli 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
196. Alec 02:44 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
did you mean "I'm American"?
197. cjnew 02:44 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
Alec just doesnt get that i have a finger acsent....i dont know how to spell acsent but thats how i say it and type it......see..
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 84 Comments: 2779
198. Alec 02:45 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
you posted a few seconds before i tried answering your previous question.
199. deb1 02:45 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
No, I mean the American language as opposed to the Queen's English that some of us are saddled with.
Member Since: Juli 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2
200. Alec 02:46 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
i do.
201. deb1 02:46 AM GMT am 27. Juli 2005    
cjnew, lol.
Member Since: Juli 18, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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