Hurricane Hunters don't find a depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 09:27 PM GMT am 16. August 2006

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An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system centered about 150 miles southeast of the North Carolina/South Carolina border this afternoon, but did not find winds strong enough to support calling it a tropical depression. Peak winds were only 25 mph at the surface, and winds of 30 mph are required before NHC will classify a system as a tropical depression. The storm does have a well-defined closed circulation, but satellite imagery and long range radar out of Wilmington, NC haven't shown much change in the system's organization today. With warm 84F (29C) waters underneath and wind shear of only 10 knots, I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm become a tropical depression or even a weak tropical storm by Thursday afternoon. However, the system has to act fast, since it will have a very hostile environment by Thursday night. A trough swinging off the East Coast today is expected to drag a filament of very strong jet stream winds southwards to Florida by Thursday night. These jet stream winds are forecast by both the GFS and NAM models to bring 100-150 knots of wind shear over the disturbance, which will easily tear it apart. Considering that wind shear over 20 knots is unfavorable for tropical storms, the 5pm NHC tropical weather outlook, "upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable for development on Thursday", is a little understated!

High pressure building in behind the trough of low pressure should force the system towards the west or southwest through Thursday night. South Carolina could see some heavy rains and gusty winds Thursday night into Friday from the storm, but a storm strong enough to cause significant damage would be a major surprise.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Wilmington, NC.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss. If you missed it, my discussion of the outlook for the remainder of August was posted in my previous blog.

Jeff Masters

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142. will40
7:51 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
being a tarheel i def not familiar with the gulf lol
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141. will40
7:48 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
ok JP i hadnt looked at it but saw someone report the pressures falling in a low in the gulf
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139. Weather456
7:44 PM AST on August 16, 2006
Did you know that...

Nine satellites, 3,000 aircraft, 7,300 ships, 100 moored and 600 drifting buoys, 10,000 land-based stations, and 500 weather radars observe weather conditions 24 hours a day over the whole globe.

From WMO
Member Since: Juli 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
138. will40
7:43 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
good water tempt also JP
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137. Tazmanian
7:43 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
so whats going on with 95L
Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
136. StormJunkie
7:41 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
Convection continuest to expand around 93....Slowly, but still expanding as of 23:30 (7:30Est)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
134. will40
7:38 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
Link buoys for the western gulf dont know if any are near the low or not
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133. Skyepony (Mod)
11:32 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
cloud layers for the gulf

You can animate it, goes back in huge time lapses (about a month) like they only do it when there is something interesting. Slow the loop down to view.
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132. taco2me61
11:30 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Hey Everybody,
Fl30258713 did I here ya say we will have a repet of last night???



Taco:0)
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131. Skyepony (Mod)
11:29 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
cloud layers in 93L

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130. franck
11:26 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
I just heard (local TV weather) pressures are falling with the Gulf low.
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129. Weather456
7:13 PM AST on August 16, 2006
93L

Member Since: Juli 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
127. Skyepony (Mod)
11:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Thel~ their headed home...

614
URNT11 KNHC 162257
97779 22534 40317 77800 02700 32014 24239 /0014
43010
RMK AF300 01FFA INVEST OB 23
60NM SOUTHWEST OF CENTER. EXITING STORM AND CLIMBING
;


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126. StormJunkie
7:22 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
Latest GFS has a Central Atlantic wave developing around 96hrs. Pretty good size system it is showing out there. I think it has hinted at this for several runs now if I am not mistaken.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
125. Fl30258713
11:13 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
LLC in Gulf looks like its getting broader and better defined,think it might stop drifting south and start to develope better. Pressure is 1012mb.
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124. StormJunkie
7:09 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
I have been watching that on the GHCC imagery Buhdog.

IMHO, this is it for 93. If this convection can continue to grow and persist through the night as well as utilize the diurnal max, then we should see a TD or weak TS. If not then it will likely amount to nothing.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
122. Buhdog
11:07 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
BIG BLOWUP in th middle of the pack for 93l...nice shot last few frames on Ramsdis loop

Link
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121. kylejourdan2006
11:01 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Hey guys, remember what Dr. M said: "100-150kt wind shear". Even if that was off a little, the wind shear would be still incredibly too high for anything to develop (or if something develops before the shear arrives, to survive) in.

Therefore, I think this thing has a chance to become a depression and slight chance to become a minimal tropical storm before torn apart and forgotten about.
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120. thelmores
11:03 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
if you look at this, and at the end of the loop, you will see the high level clouds "jetting in" from the nw......quick..... send the HH's over there! LOL

looks like we have a nice big blowup of convection on the northern side of 93l.....




Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
119. EdMahmoud
11:01 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
New URNT12 message says almost-TD #4 actually losing organization, as banding features decreasing.


It would have been cool it it was an official TD for just 6 hours, or maybe even 3 hours, if an intermediate advisory were written because watches were issued.
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117. CybrTeddy
11:00 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Posted By: StormJunkie at 10:59 PM GMT on August 16, 2006.
Nash, very unlikely may be an understatement. First it would have to avoid the coming shear-high does not drop down as far, hence keeping the shear lower which would result in a track further N, or It gets steered SW then W across Florida, and it has to do this very quickly in order to avoid the shear as well as to avoid dying out over land.

I'd say the chances of some form of 93L reforming in the Gulf are about .05%




i would give it a 13% chance because after last
year.
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116. nash28
11:00 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Well, I know SJ. I am not counting on this, and I realize it would be a freak of nature type system to survive this, but hey, one can dream right???
Member Since: Juli 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
115. StormJunkie
6:55 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
Nash, very unlikely may be an understatement. First it would have to avoid the coming shear-high does not drop down as far, hence keeping the shear lower which would result in a track further N, or It gets steered SW then W across Florida, and it has to do this very quickly in order to avoid the shear as well as to avoid dying out over land.

I'd say the chances of some form of 93L reforming in the Gulf are about .05%.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
114. CybrTeddy
10:58 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
this could already be a deppresion
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113. CybrTeddy
10:55 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
guys after seeing what NHC did with Chris
when it was a pre deppersion
And 91L in June.......
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112. Fl30258713
10:54 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Interesting all the models take 93L west and it looks to be drifting SE
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111. nash28
10:53 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
If, and this is a HUGE IF 93L can keep a closed COC while crossing FL into the GULF, then it could be problematic later on. Very unlikely and the conditions in the Gulf would have to be perfect to regenerate it.
Member Since: Juli 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
110. StormJunkie
6:51 PM EDT on August 16, 2006
Kinda CT....lol
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
108. CybrTeddy
10:48 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Hello is 93L organized or NOT
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107. Fl30258713
10:47 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
BayBuddy,I think we are going to get a repeat of last night, except will be coming from NE from central Georgia/Alabama line.
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104. Fl30258713
10:45 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Hey BayBuddy
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103. C2News
10:43 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
is this thing heading towards north florida?
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102. 1900hurricane
5:42 PM CDT on August 16, 2006
See Y'all! Gotta go do homework
: (
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101. Baybuddy
10:39 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
Hi Guys.
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100. 1900hurricane
5:39 PM CDT on August 16, 2006
Ya, and here and here and here. these are my favorite, though
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99. 1900hurricane
5:36 PM CDT on August 16, 2006
Latest NAM
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97. CybrTeddy
10:35 PM GMT on August 16, 2006
wait a sec is it me or is it getting better organized agaist all odds
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96. 1900hurricane
5:34 PM CDT on August 16, 2006
In that case, it shows a cape verde-type storm forming.

LInk
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95. 1900hurricane
5:32 PM CDT on August 16, 2006
ahhhh. I see. thanks MichaelSTL.
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94. 1900hurricane
5:28 PM CDT on August 16, 2006
Is this it?

Link
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92. 1900hurricane
5:26 PM CDT on August 16, 2006
Well...for some reason, I don't have the latest run yet.
: (
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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