Hurricane Hunters don't find a depression
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the low pressure system centered about 150 miles southeast of the North Carolina/South Carolina border this afternoon, but did not find winds strong enough to support calling it a tropical depression. Peak winds were only 25 mph at the surface, and winds of 30 mph are required before NHC will classify a system as a tropical depression. The storm does have a well-defined closed circulation, but satellite imagery and long range radar out of Wilmington, NC haven't shown much change in the system's organization today. With warm 84F (29C) waters underneath and wind shear of only 10 knots, I wouldn't be surprised to see this storm become a tropical depression or even a weak tropical storm by Thursday afternoon. However, the system has to act fast, since it will have a very hostile environment by Thursday night. A trough swinging off the East Coast today is expected to drag a filament of very strong jet stream winds southwards to Florida by Thursday night. These jet stream winds are forecast by both the GFS and NAM models to bring 100-150 knots of wind shear over the disturbance, which will easily tear it apart. Considering that wind shear over 20 knots is unfavorable for tropical storms, the 5pm NHC tropical weather outlook, "upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable for development on Thursday", is a little understated!
High pressure building in behind the trough of low pressure should force the system towards the west or southwest through Thursday night. South Carolina could see some heavy rains and gusty winds Thursday night into Friday from the storm, but a storm strong enough to cause significant damage would be a major surprise.
Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Wilmington, NC.
Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss. If you missed it, my discussion of the outlook for the remainder of August was posted in my previous blog.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Weather Round-Up
Windshear is indeed our friend this year, but what are we going to do when it lets up?
Interesting GFS run for next week. Pretty significant cyclone.
MahFl, the shear has increased from the N to the S, and that is why all of the convection is to the S of the COC. You can see the COC on the Charleston radar. Now compare that to the IR imagery and you will see the center is on the N edge of the blob.
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See ya'll later
SJ
We felt the two larger ones but that was all in St. Thomas.
Jean and Georges were interesting in their timing.
that last convective burst in the last hour or so certainly is impressive!!!!
if it wasnt a tropical depression yesterday, it may be now! LOL
Station 41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
i believe that last convective burst provided us with at least 30mph winds......... guess we'll have to see if the convective burst hits before..... well you know.... Decap! LOL
MORNING EVERYBODY!!!!
GFS SHOWS FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON CLICK HERE
nash, you may be right, but there is no way to really verify that at the moment.... and by the time we could get verification, it may be history.....
i don't think there will be a flight to 93L today.... but i have been wrong "many" times before! ;)
And as I type this NHC has just called an canceled this mornings' recon flight into 93L and they canceled all follow on tasking into this system. So I think from NHC's perspective (and mine for that matter) this system is no longer a threat.
Have a great day folks!
Randy
hurricane23, thanks for the images of Cyclone Monica. I also like
Cyclone Ingrid (2005)
Cyclone Glenda (2006)
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