Carolina disturbance still near tropical depression strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:29 PM GMT am 17. August 2006

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The low pressure system centered about 100 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina remains very close to tropical depression strength. Winds this morning at the buoy 47 miles southeast of Charleston, SC have been about 25 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Sustained winds of 30 mph and a closed circulation at the surface are required before NHC will classify a system as a tropical depression. The storm does have a well-defined closed circulation, but only one area of intense thunderstorms, on the south side of the circulation. Strong upper level winds from the north are creating about 20 knots of winds shear over it, and pushing all the thunderstorm activity to the south side.

Long range radar animation out of Charleston, SC shows a big blob of precipitation, but not much organization to this system--little spiral banding is evident. The appearance on satellite imagery has improved some this morning, perhaps because the system is drifting southwestward over slightly warmer waters. There is still about a six hour window for this storm to become a tropical depression. However, wind shear is expected to increase rapidly to over 100 knots by tonight, which will surely destroy the storm. The remains may brings heavy rain to Georgia, northern Florida, and South Carolina Friday, but significant damage from this system is very unlikely. The Hurricane Hunters are on the schedule to go investigate the storm this afternoon, but I expect that this mission will be cancelled.


Figure 1. Current long range radar out of Charleston, SC.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss. If you missed it, my discussion of the outlook for the remainder of August was posted yesterday.

Jeff Masters

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974. Cavin Rawlins
01:52 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Hurricane Hector:

Member Since: Juli 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
973. turtlehurricane
01:44 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
93L is finally starting to weaken, this is today's tropical weather round-up which talks about it

Tropical Weather Round-Up
Member Since: Juli 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
972. Cavin Rawlins
01:44 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
93L Wave heights

Member Since: Juli 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
971. StoryOfTheHurricane
01:39 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
seems like this is one of the stronger waves we've seen off Verde thus far
970. ProgressivePulse
01:37 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
NP Story!
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
969. StoryOfTheHurricane
01:36 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
ty progressive
968. Cavin Rawlins
01:34 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Earlier This afternoon:


Tonight (9pm)
Member Since: Juli 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
967. BahaHurican
01:34 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
I notice the NAM is suggesting "something" will bring some showers to the JAX area on Sat/Sun.

Maybe u guys will get lucky up there . . .

Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
966. IKE
01:29 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:26 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
yea IKE for the first time i think the models are trying to hint at a quick ramp in the next 2 weeks.


And several of them are suggesting western Caribbean activity in 3-4 days. Plus a cold front is expected to drop into the southeast by early next week....GOM might see something soon.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
965. ricderr
01:28 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
taco....how in the heck are ya?
Member Since: Juni 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
964. flwatergal
01:26 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
New BLOG
961. taco2me61
01:26 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Never feer Taco is Here...

[Everone runs away so very far away]



Taco:0)
Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3237
960. hurricane23
01:26 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
yea IKE for the first time i think the models are trying to hint at a quick ramp in the next 2 weeks.
Member Since: Mai 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
959. BahaHurican
01:25 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
What caught me about the GFS loop I looked at was the sudden explosion in greens and blues about the 26th or so. Maybe there wont be a system out there by then, but there sure does seem to be a much greater potential for it by the 28th . . . .

Member Since: Oktober 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
958. IKE
01:23 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Posted By: caymanguy at 8:20 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
thanks IKE


Your welcome. Dang those models have me interested!!! I shouldn't have looked at them, but the NAM caught my eye...the GFS caught my other one and the CMC added to my curiosity.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
957. ProgressivePulse
01:21 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Models
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
956. caymanguy
01:20 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
thanks IKE
955. flwatergal
01:19 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
ROFLMAO Michael
954. IKE
01:18 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Posted By: CosmicEvents at 8:16 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
Wow.....Look what's gone on in here. Stormtop.....chill out.....go have a nice relaxing meal at Emerald's.....say hello to Emeril for the rest of us. Let us get back to discussing the weather, instead of your baby nonsense. Stop hyping your ever-changing forecasts. They're like a fart in the wind....they stink....then they go away.


He was suppose to go fishin for 10 days in Colorado. I don't think he was away from here 5 days.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
953. StoryOfTheHurricane
01:18 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
lol well said cosmic, does anybody have any links to places to see the forecast models?
952. CosmicEvents
01:16 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Wow.....Look what's gone on in here. Stormtop.....chill out.....go have a nice relaxing meal at Emerald's.....say hello to Emeril for the rest of us. Let us get back to discussing the weather, instead of your baby nonsense. Stop hyping your ever-changing forecasts. They're like a fart in the wind....they stink....then they go away.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5527
951. FortLauderdaleNole
01:14 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Here's a view from the 07 level of the island..
Carrier2

I believe it's normally pretty rough even in calm weather at the tip...we crossed during a pretty good storm.
950. WPBHurricane05
01:13 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
catchasser went through frances, jeanne, and wilma(eye) plus a few in the past
Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
949. IKE
01:13 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
That's 3 different models I've looked at that forms a low to a 1000mb storm cruising thru the western Caribbean into the gulf from 84-144 hours.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
947. SLU
01:12 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
IT IS LITERALLY FINISHED
Member Since: Juli 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4859
945. ProgressivePulse
01:10 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
3, 7 same thing lol! "Darn High" as ricderr put it.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
944. IKE
01:10 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
93L looks squashed.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
943. IKE
01:10 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
The latest model run for the CMC I have is 12Z...puts a storm south of ST in 144 hours>>>Link
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
942. StoryOfTheHurricane
01:10 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
cool links michael, ty
941. caymanguy
01:10 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
IKE, where can i find that, you gotta link?
940. FortLauderdaleNole
01:09 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
The flight deck is like standing on the roof of a seven story building (from the waterline)...it's pretty darn high!!
937. ProgressivePulse
01:09 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
I was gonna say ricderr it is about 3 stories, amazing
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
935. WPBHurricane05
01:08 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
catchasser dont remind me of frances that was a bad cat. 2 cane
Member Since: Juli 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
934. IKE
01:07 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Posted By: caymanguy at 8:04 PM CDT on August 17, 2006.
IKE< is that the same L you mentioned earlier?


Yeah...the canadian model run is interesting too.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
933. StoryOfTheHurricane
01:05 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
FT, why were they so big at that time? rough seas or a storm?
932. FortLauderdaleNole
01:05 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
After our trip, the next one to go around went through the pass. We lost a very expensive antennae to Poseidon.
930. caymanguy
01:04 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
IKE< is that the same L you mentioned earlier?

hey, anybody got their own weather station at home?
929. ricderr
01:03 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
ft....mind telling people how high the flight deck is above the ocean..will give some persepctive on those waves
Member Since: Juni 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
927. SLU
01:02 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
MichaelSTL this one is for you

Posted By: SLU at 9:27 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.

The hurricane center should just give up on this system (INVEST 93L) because it won't develop again.



Posted By: MichaelSTL at 9:31 PM GMT on August 17, 2006.

Maybe the next TWO will have this:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NOVEMBER 30.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST TWO ISSUED UNTIL JUNE 1.

LOL!




AND NOW WHERE DID INVEST 93L GO TO??
Member Since: Juli 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4859
926. StoryOfTheHurricane
01:01 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
ya its working today, maybe it was just my browser but yesterday it was saying the server was down and wouldn't let me view the shear model
925. ProgressivePulse
01:00 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Posted By: StoryOfTheHurricane at 12:45 AM GMT on August 18, 2006.
anybody know whats up with the CIMSS website?


Working fine here story?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
924. FortLauderdaleNole
12:59 AM GMT am 18. August 2006
Here's a cool image. The USS NIMITZ during a trip around the tip of South America in 2001. Waves crashing over the flight deck....the only time I got a little sea sick on a Carrier!!
Carrier

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.