Jacksonville low keeps on spinning

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 01:46 PM GMT am 19. August 2006

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The persistent low pressure system about 50 miles east of Jacksonville Florida continues to kick up heavy thunderstorms and high winds over the waters off the Florida coast. Wind shear from a protuberance of the jet stream is still a very hefty 40-50 knots, and is expected to remain over 40 knots through Sunday, so development of this system into a tropical depression is not expected. However, radar animations out of Jacksonville, FL show a healthy circulation and some strong thunderstorms on the east and south sides. Wind speeds at a buoy 45 miles east-northeast of St. Augustine have been about 25 mph gusting to 30 mph this morning. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:06am EDT this morning showed some wind gusts as high as 45 mph in some of the thunderstorms. The low could affect Georgia and northern Florida today and Sunday much as a tropical depression would, bringing heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds.


Figure 1. Current radar out of Jacksonville, FL.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The strong tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands that the GFS model had been developing into a hurricane is now pretty ordinary looking. The GFS no longer develops this wave. A good general rule for model predictions of tropical storm formation:

1) If two or more of the reliable models (GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET) are forecasting develoment, watch out.

2) If none of the reliable models are forecasting development, watch out. The models miss most tropical storm development.

3) If just one of the reliable models is forecasting development, you can probably discount it.

That being said, we have a case where two reliable models--the GFS and NOGAPS--are forecasting that the large tropical wave that will move off Africa Sunday will develop into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. However, the wave will have to contend with a large cloud of Saharan dust which has just emerged from the coast of Africa.

Wind shear remains high over the Caribbean today, but the GFS is forecasting that this will drop significantly by Wednesday, and remain very low for the ten days following. I expect at least one tropical storm will form in the Atlantic during the next seven days. One candidate might be a weak tropical wave currently in the mid-Atlantic near 11N 40W.

Jeff Masters

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209. vortextrance
5:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Agree with JP and Trouper leave him alone.
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207. Trouper415
5:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
cosmoK

you're not cool by saying something like that. Leave him alone or you're getting hurt.
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205. Oreodog
5:01 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Brazoria: Looks like there is more building to the SE and ESE
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204. GPTGUY
11:59 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
i agree IKE
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203. IKE
11:55 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
It's amazing the difference, but I'm not complaining about 2006...folks deserve a break...
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
202. BrazoriaCountyUSA
11:51 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
4" of rain here in the last two hours just "training in" off of the GOM
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201. GPTGUY
11:53 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
yeah IKE i think people were spoiled because of last year
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200. aardan
4:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
A compaint letter! Great idea JoyWright. Better still, an eletronic petition site should be set up. If we all signed and got all our friends to sign, the NHS would have to take action.

Viva la resistence au cisaillement de vent.
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199. sebastianjer
12:53 PM EDT on August 19, 2006
Got to run to Home Depot-check in later.
JER
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197. franck
4:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
93l...It doesn't look as if any amount of shear is going to destroy the circulation over the water, though the convection continues to be blown away. It does appear to have drifted west a little toward land, and once over land it should dissipate. If shear relaxes significantly while this thing is over water, it is going to develop.
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195. IKE
11:51 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:49 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
IKE: just to be clear I was referring to the ULL weakening


OK.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
194. IKE
11:48 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Patience is a necessity if you're following the tropics.

Last year was a once-in-a-lifetime event.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
193. Patrap
4:48 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
.is off to feed the Croakers & hope for a speckled trout..Later yall...
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191. Tazmanian
9:46 AM PDT on August 19, 2006
sorry all i this try of the waiting game week by week no name storm
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190. GPTGUY
11:46 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
sebastianjer people on the MS gulf coast appriciate sentiments like that..thank you
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189. plywoodstatenative
4:44 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
We all were wondering when mother nature was going to get her act together in the way of producing hurricanes or tropical systems. I think we have our answer.
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188. IKE
11:47 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:45 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
IKE; to me it looks to be weakening now


Just a feelin about that Caribbean disturbed area...a problem for someone...maybe the Yucatan or the GOM.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
187. Patrap
4:47 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
..spend some time with a she-Devil..its a lovely Californian Morning I see
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186. Thundercloud01221991
11:45 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Taz their was a Storm in August Chris formed July 31 and became a named storm August 1 remember
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185. JoyWright
4:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
OK Taz,

Everyone hears you. There has been no hurricane action. We all know this. Stop saying it. I have an idea. Why don't you write a letter to the NHS to complain about the lack or weather.
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184. IKE
11:43 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:43 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
did i say i was wishing for a hurricane on any one????? NO! oh i am this saying is that i am this geting try of waiting and waiting for a for a name storm sorry if i am overe the deep end a little bit but this has been going on for to long now


There are storms in the Pacific...
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182. Patrap
4:42 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
..ricderr...its ok my friend..we all deal with it in our own way..It takes a bigger man to say whats in his heart..than to suffer silently..I understand yer feelings man..We all need our space & time to filter all we been thru..your not alone..patrap
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181. Tazmanian
9:43 AM PDT on August 19, 2006
SEFL good point
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180. IKE
11:41 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: Weather456 at 11:40 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
There seems be a large circulation spin, north of Panama.....


Is that ULL south of western Cuba forecast to weaken? Move?
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
179. Tazmanian
9:40 AM PDT on August 19, 2006
did i say i was wishing for a hurricane on any one????? NO! oh i am this saying is that i am this geting try of waiting and waiting for a for a name storm sorry if i am overe the deep end a little bit but this has been going on for to long now
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178. SEFL
4:40 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2006.
heart of the season heh heh heh so tell me this if this is the heart of the season where all the hurrcane? tell me that

Taz, maybe you should take up an interest in seismology. Then you could sit around and wonder where all the earthquakes are. I know you are interested in hurricanes, but complaining about a slow season is getting a little old!!
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177. AllyBama
4:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
ricderr. i applaud you. well said - my sentiments exactly!
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176. Patrap
4:41 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
..get in a FEMA line..youll learn to wait...LOL
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175. sebastianjer
12:21 PM EDT on August 19, 2006
When I was a kid we moved from Oregon to Florida. On our way we stopped in Biloxi and the entire family just fell in love with it, a bunch of westerners who had never been to the south we were just overcome with the different beauty of the gulf coast, the historical old houses the white sand of the spectacular beaches. The next year we went home to Portland on vacation and while we were in Portland Camile hit. On our way back to Florida we again went through Biloxi and were so devestated us kids cried because of what it looked like so my parents didn't stop, just drove past. In 2004 my wife and I went on an extended vacation and on our way home to Florida we stopped in Biloxi for a couple days for swimming and a little gambling. It wasn't the same as when I was a kid but we loved it and made plans to go back for vacation there for Labor day 2005. When Katrina hit it was like dejavue (sp) all over again. I gew up in Cutler Ridge in south Dade County which was devestated by Andrew and have gone back and seen it since but it doesn't bother me nearly as much as what has happened to the beautiful Gulf Coast of MS. My heart goes out to all who live there.
JER
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174. IKE
11:40 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:39 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
heart of the season heh heh heh so tell me this if this is the heart of the season where all the hurrcane? tell me that


They haven't formed yet...but, they will.
Member Since: Juni 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
173. Patrap
4:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
..we had millwright shop..we were building the Pharmacy for Keener Regional..St Jude Back then..we had to put all the machinery upstairs.in the loft..then took it down when she turned..then put it all up again..was wild weekend...the Seebees had to come out from their base & evacuate those that stayed @ the High School offa Pass road & collect the shlterees during the eye..a Twister pulled the roof off the Gym & deposited right on the parking lot..that was during the front eye-wall...was wild..the went in with 2 amtracs..got em out..b-4 the backside hit..I remember hearing the winds coming and scampering back in...
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172. GainesvilleGator
4:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
It looks like Taz got an online gangbang today. Ouch! Yeah, tropical systems are kinda cool to watch but I don't wish one on anybody.

There were downed power lines, trees, & flooding in Gaineville two years ago from Frances & Jean. Both of these were downgraded to tropical storms by the time their full affects were felt here.

My sister is trying to sell her house in Wellingon (West Palm Beach) so hopefully anything in the Atlantic will curve out.
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171. IKE
11:38 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 11:35 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
I see a couple of spins there; one at 11.5N 81W and the one you pointed out


I do too..TWO circulations....seems the entire area is drifting NNW.
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170. Tazmanian
9:39 AM PDT on August 19, 2006
heh thats what i been doing i starting to get a littl try of it this waiting and waiting and waiting
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168. GPTGUY
11:39 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
i have a tape on hurricane elena and it shows a water vapor loop and its soon interesting to see the trough dig down and pull it east toward florida and to watch the high build back west and push it into Mississippi its amazing
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167. vortextrance
4:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
no need for ty Patrap, and sorry about your loss. It goes to show there are many victims of these storms long after they have passed.
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166. Weather456
12:38 PM AST on August 19, 2006
There seems be a large circulation spin, north of Panama.....
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165. MRK
4:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
Wilma went thru just south of here and we had all the wind from the north......that one worried us more than Charlie as it took so long to get here. Hoping for NONE this year....we need a break!
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164. GPTGUY
11:38 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
yeah Taz i agree just be patient it will bust loose soon enough
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163. Tazmanian
9:37 AM PDT on August 19, 2006
heart of the season heh heh heh so tell me this if this is the heart of the season where all the hurrcane? tell me that
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162. IKE
11:37 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: Patrap at 11:35 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
..Elena was bad enuf ..remember how it came up from the south..made right turn towards tampa..stalled..reveresd course back to Miss..that eywall was wooly..font & back,..was on 18th street just north of rr tracks...Shuttle was on orbit & kept downlinking images on Gulf passes


I remember seeing Elena come up toward the Florida panhandle...turn east..stopped before hitting the Florida west coast and do a 180! It was incredible!
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161. IKE
11:34 AM CDT on August 19, 2006
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:34 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
yse i no but dont you think this waiting game been going on a liitle too far now?


It's probably fixin to bust loose Taz. It's August 19th...the heart of the season.
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160. Tazmanian
9:34 AM PDT on August 19, 2006
and it August 19th not 1st hurricane


august 20th no 1st hurricane


august 21st no 1st hurricane

and so on an so and
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159. ricderr
4:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2006
ok....i've rebuilt a house....screen room...dock..and lost a 1928 sloop to three storms...i've lived in a trailer...cried over ruined photos of the kids with my wife...fought with insurance...and i still think tropical systems are such an amazing event...that i enjoy them does not make me demonic..nor a dissaster monger...so i will make no apology for being here...plain and simple..it makes me someone that respects this earth and mans vulnerability to it's power....the facts are that most of us, regardless of monetary status have the ability to live where we choose...and yet we choose to live in areas that are flood prone...hurricane prone..and many of us choose to live in the worst possibles area within those zones...then in fact..we have no right to whine, expect pity..expect out goverment..(and in truth..the tax dollars of those that choose to live in safer areas )to bail us out...do i feel pity for those that also suffered?..of course..did i donate my money..give up my leave to assist..yes..because i was able to..not because i'm a better man than anyone else....sorry to rant....i guess i've reached my tolerance of it all...not my day...i'm back where my military family is..i guess i need to walk the base....stare at the ocean..and greet some friends....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.