Jacksonville low keeps on spinning
The persistent low pressure system about 50 miles east of Jacksonville Florida continues to kick up heavy thunderstorms and high winds over the waters off the Florida coast. Wind shear from a protuberance of the jet stream is still a very hefty 40-50 knots, and is expected to remain over 40 knots through Sunday, so development of this system into a tropical depression is not expected. However, radar animations out of Jacksonville, FL show a healthy circulation and some strong thunderstorms on the east and south sides. Wind speeds at a buoy 45 miles east-northeast of St. Augustine have been about 25 mph gusting to 30 mph this morning. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:06am EDT this morning showed some wind gusts as high as 45 mph in some of the thunderstorms. The low could affect Georgia and northern Florida today and Sunday much as a tropical depression would, bringing heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Figure 1. Current radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The strong tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands that the GFS model had been developing into a hurricane is now pretty ordinary looking. The GFS no longer develops this wave. A good general rule for model predictions of tropical storm formation:
1) If two or more of the reliable models (GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET) are forecasting develoment, watch out.
2) If none of the reliable models are forecasting development, watch out. The models miss most tropical storm development.
3) If just one of the reliable models is forecasting development, you can probably discount it.
That being said, we have a case where two reliable models--the GFS and NOGAPS--are forecasting that the large tropical wave that will move off Africa Sunday will develop into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. However, the wave will have to contend with a large cloud of Saharan dust which has just emerged from the coast of Africa.
Wind shear remains high over the Caribbean today, but the GFS is forecasting that this will drop significantly by Wednesday, and remain very low for the ten days following. I expect at least one tropical storm will form in the Atlantic during the next seven days. One candidate might be a weak tropical wave currently in the mid-Atlantic near 11N 40W.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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here's a link storm...morning rand
While there are folks on this blog that obviously know what they are talking about and the discussions do help people learn more - if the NHC used the WU guidelines for assessing storms every resident on the Gulf Coast would have spent their retirement money on high rise hurricane bunkers that they would live in until December and no one would plan a vacation to the beaches.
...get it? We can discuss the tropics without being pompous and suggesting we know better...
-stormy
lol its their jobs to spot these things and people on this blog are right more than they are 90% of the time.
no Story - that isn't ALL you were saying.
East Atlantic
Sorry I couldn't answer you Storm...I was away from my computer.
So tell me, what is going on with the Florida low? Is it still hanging on? Which way is it heading? It there still a chance for it to survive the crossing and can it get into the gulf? Put
The SW Caribbean blob seems to be gathering some convection.
Sorry I couldn't answer you Storm...I was away from my computer.
I meant to say...Sorry I couldn't answer you StoryOfTheHurricance.
Coffee hasn't kicked in yet this morning!
This blog educates, enlightens and at times can give you a head start on information not yet released by NHC - all of that is fun for the weather enthusiast!
Sorry, didn't mean to come in here and stir anything up - I just wouldn't want lurkers to get the impression they are better off reacting to this blog vs. NHC
You all have a great day - I'm going to see if I can get the boat on the water before the rain turns this into a movie day.
-stormy
IKE...I saw that. Should be interesting in that area for sure. There's two hot spots right now and besides the CentAtl, the Western Carib is definitely interesting this morning. Gotta see how things sort out there in the next few hours.
Plus that TWD talks about a high in the southern Caribbean...that area is troublesome.
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