Jacksonville low keeps on spinning
The persistent low pressure system about 50 miles east of Jacksonville Florida continues to kick up heavy thunderstorms and high winds over the waters off the Florida coast. Wind shear from a protuberance of the jet stream is still a very hefty 40-50 knots, and is expected to remain over 40 knots through Sunday, so development of this system into a tropical depression is not expected. However, radar animations out of Jacksonville, FL show a healthy circulation and some strong thunderstorms on the east and south sides. Wind speeds at a buoy 45 miles east-northeast of St. Augustine have been about 25 mph gusting to 30 mph this morning. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:06am EDT this morning showed some wind gusts as high as 45 mph in some of the thunderstorms. The low could affect Georgia and northern Florida today and Sunday much as a tropical depression would, bringing heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds.
Figure 1. Current radar out of Jacksonville, FL.
Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The strong tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands that the GFS model had been developing into a hurricane is now pretty ordinary looking. The GFS no longer develops this wave. A good general rule for model predictions of tropical storm formation:
1) If two or more of the reliable models (GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET) are forecasting develoment, watch out.
2) If none of the reliable models are forecasting development, watch out. The models miss most tropical storm development.
3) If just one of the reliable models is forecasting development, you can probably discount it.
That being said, we have a case where two reliable models--the GFS and NOGAPS--are forecasting that the large tropical wave that will move off Africa Sunday will develop into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. However, the wave will have to contend with a large cloud of Saharan dust which has just emerged from the coast of Africa.
Wind shear remains high over the Caribbean today, but the GFS is forecasting that this will drop significantly by Wednesday, and remain very low for the ten days following. I expect at least one tropical storm will form in the Atlantic during the next seven days. One candidate might be a weak tropical wave currently in the mid-Atlantic near 11N 40W.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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i say starting with the worst
1.Frances
2.Wilma
3.Jeanne
im not sure, Wilma went over us
Thats true...Thats why I think, we should not mention anything about Hurricane Katrina from Aug. 22 to Aug. 31....just a thought
A bit of trivia : Hurricane Rita formed on my wedding day above our heads......September 17th 2005.
brought it up bcause we are coming up to the day it formed
talk about Georges..sucked ALL of the water out of Mobile Bay and dumped in on us! I had +23 inches of rain at my house and the enviro center @ Dauphin Island had 47!!! Talk about watering your grass...
the 2006 year is done it got kill by high wind shaer not one name storm so far in augst
I know you're referring to the Atlantic, but what about all of the folks who died recently in China from that typhoon???
I evacuated for...Opal....Ivan...Dennis...stayed for George and it put my dock under water. These storms are no fun.
I get a rush tracking them, but am tired of evacuating and picking up the pieces.
the 2006 year is done it got kill by high wind shaer not one name storm so far in augst
Remember the season ends November 30....
Anyway I continue to pray for all of you who are still going through the recovery process and sincerely hope all of you get an extended break from the Tropics.
hey, unless they are memorable like Frederick, Elena, Camille, Ivan, etc. you forget their names. Kind of like some of my dates! lol
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:18 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
the 2006 year is done it got kill by high wind shaer not one name storm so far in augst
Posted By: Weather456 at 12:25 PM AST on August 19, 2006.
Remember the season ends November 30....
last year didnt end till January
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:18 AM CDT on August 19, 2006.
the 2006 year is done it got kill by high wind shaer not one name storm so far in augst
Posted By: Weather456 at 12:25 PM AST on August 19, 2006.
Remember the season ends November 30....
last year didnt end till January
LOL
i say starting with the worst
1.Frances
2.Wilma
3.Jeanne
20 or 30 miles can make a big difference in impact. I was in south eye wall of both Francis and Jeanne and had the eye of Wilma pass over. I think Francis was the worst because of the slow speed....12 hours of wind battering.
Wilma had higher winds and they scared me on the backside after the eye passed over, but it was done in a couple of hours.
I would put them in same order for destruction where I am.
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