Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ernesto, John, Ioke

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 09:02 PM GMT am 30. August 2006

Tropical Depression Ernesto steamed north across Florida today, crossing over Lake Okeechobee, headed for an exit from the Florida coast north of Cape Canaveral. The storm has maintained its integrity, as seen in satellite animations and radar imagery. Although Ernesto's winds have dropped below tropical storm force, its central pressure has stayed about 1002 mb, only a 1 mb rise from when it made landfall. The considerable blow-up of heavy thunderstorm this afternoon over Ernesto's center is due to the normal daytime increase in thunderstorm activity due to solar heating of the Florida landmass. Rainfall amounts over Florida have generally been below 4 inches, and Ernesto has not been much of a problem for the state.

Once Ernesto re-emerges into the Atlantic early Thursday morning, it will re-intensify over water. None of the forecast models or the official NHC forecast are calling for this to become a hurricane, though. The passage over Florida has weakened it to the point where it would take more time over water than Ernesto will have. It is possible that Ernesto will intensify very little, as happened when it popped off the coast of Cuba. The most likely intensity at its second landfall in South Carolina is 40-55 mph.

Hurricane John
Hurricane John strengthened into a very dangerous Category 4 hurricane this afternoon, and is already bringing tropical storm force winds to the Mexican coast. John is expected to move parallel to the coast over the next two days, but close enough to bring hurricane force winds to the coast at times. Any slight deviation towards the coast will bring the hurricane's dangerous core ashore, and would make John one of the strongest hurricanes ever to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico. The area of the coast that pokes out farthest into the ocean, just south of Manzanillo, is at highest risk of a strike, and the latest 12Z (8am EDT) runs of both the GFDL and NOGAPS models are calling for a strike here. Wind shear is light and forecast to remain low, and sea surface temperatures (Figure 1) are a very warm 30 C under the hurricane--about 1-2 degrees C above normal for this time of year.

Figure 1. Current sea surface temperatures along the Pacific coast. Temperatures in the Gulf of California may not be accurate, due to difficulties retrieving the temperature via satellite measurements in such a narrow body of water. The red line separating blue colors from yellow marks the 26 C isotherm--the critical temperature needed to sustain a tropical cyclone. Note the very cool waters extending from the California border southwards along the coast. This long stretch of cool water will make it difficult for John to hold together if it tries to approach California. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Is John a threat to the U.S.?
Eastern Pacific hurricanes are most likely to impact the U.S. in El Nino years, where the ocean along the Mexican coast heats up to much above normal temperatures and can fuel very intense hurricanes. This was the case in 1997, when Category 5 Hurricane Linda, the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Eastern Pacific, moved parallel to the coast and threatened California. The National Hurricane Center issued several advisories for Linda alerting San Diego to the possibility of receiving tropical storm force winds from Linda. The storm turned out to sea before reaching California, however.

This is not an El Nino year, but recent warming of the waters in the Eastern Pacific has led some El Nino experts wondering if a late-arriving El Nino might be on the way. Water temperatures along the Pacific coast of Mexico are 1-2 degrees C above normal all the way to the California coast, giving 2006 the possibility of allowing a tropical storm to reach California. It is very rare for an Eastern Pacific storm to move far enough north to affect the Arizona or California. Since 1900, only four tropical cyclones have brought tropical storm force winds to the Southwestern United States: an unnamed tropical storm that made landfall near Long Beach, CA, in 1939 (52 mph winds south of L.A.); the remnants of Hurricane Joanne in 1972; the remnants of Hurricane Kathleen in 1976 (76 mph wind gust at Yuma, AZ); and the remnants of Hurricane Nora in 1997. In addition, a hurricane just missed making landfall in October 1858 and brought hurricane force winds to San Diego and tropical storm force winds all the way to Los Angeles.

In order to affect California, a tropical cyclone would have to be moving quickly, so the the cold waters off the coast would not weaken it too fast. The alternative would be for the storm to barrel up the narrow Gulf of California, where water temperatures remain warm all the way to the end. To my knowledge, no such storm has ever been able to shoot more than half way up the narrow Gulf of California before dashing itself to pieces on the rugged terrain on either side. I'd be surprised if John manages to bring tropical storm force winds to the U.S.

Super Typhoon Ioke
The incredible Category 4 Supertyphoon Ioke continues to rumble towards tiny Wake Island in the Pacific. The entire population of the island has been evacuated to Hawaii. NOAA's National Ocean Service has a station on Wake Island, and the current conditions at 3pm EDT were sustained winds of 34 mph gusting to 44 mph, and the pressure at 999 mb and falling rapidly. It is expected that Ioke's storm surge may completely submerge the island. Ioke has a significant wave height of 50 feet, meaning that 1/3 of the waves in the storm are higher than that. Wow!

African tropical waves
A tropical wave near 12N 36W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has changed little in organization today. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days.

The large spiral of low clouds near 18N 46W surrounded by a large cloud of dry air and African dust continues to spin, but the thunderstorm activity near the center remains near zero this afternoon. The wave has some potential for development if it can find a moister environment. This is not likely until Sunday at the earliest, when it may be near Puerto Rico or the Bahamas.

I'll be back Friday morning with a new update.

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251. StormJunkie 12:50 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Yep 03. May end up being nothing, but if it is at least a 50 to 60 mph TS then I will head up as I have the day off anyway. So what is your take? Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15240

252. thelmores 12:50 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Observed at: @The-Beach, Cocoa Beach, Florida Elevation: 15 ft / 4 m [Light Rain] 77.0 �F / 25.0 �C Light Rain Mist Humidity: 98% Dew Point: 76 �F / 25 �C Wind: 20.0 mph / 32 km/h from the SE Wind Gust: 23.0 mph / 37 km/h Pressure: 29.56 in / 1000.9 hPa Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3754

253. ClearH2OFla 12:51 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Well all it was fun. I did however get more rain from ernie then i did Charley. Hopefully the rest of the season will as uneventful as this.

255. Patrap 12:52 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
..Sees Ernesto right about over Launch Complex 39B @ KSC..reminds me of When the Movie MArooned came out..can See David Jansen screaming!..Launch !..But Gregeroy Peck had to wait for the Eye of the Hurricane to come over.THey Launched when the Windspeed hit ..Zero..Good ol flick..Gene Hackman Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

256. dryindestin 12:52 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
the media is out of control covering these storms .blogs like this feed into that hype ....one can be prepared without unnecessary hype or panic

258. weatherguy03 12:53 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
50 mph landfall near Cape Romain. Member Since: Juli 5, 2005 Posts: 581 Comments: 29681

259. Tazmanian 12:53 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
StormJunkie dos this mean it will have longer time in the water and a stonger storm? Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111615

260. StormJunkie 12:54 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
I think it is going to be right on the border thel, now that is mostly a geuss, but that is the way it looks to me. Still want to see the 2am model runs. Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15240

261. hurricane79 12:55 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
In a class with Dr. Krishnamurti today at FSU, he explained that the organized swirm of clouds in the Atlantic, void of moisture, will have a great chance to develop when it reaches the longitude of 50 to 60W

262. ClearH2OFla 12:56 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Hey storm junkie in thing in the near future for us floridians to watch for

263. K8eCane 12:56 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
hey guys jim cantore is in myrtle beach Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2496

264. thelmores 12:56 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
COMMENTS TO FOLLOW..... Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3754

265. hurricane79 12:59 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Ernesto has a good chance to strengthen if he can just gain an inner core quickly, it may not have enough time...either way it shouldnt be a hurricane. At most a strong tropical storm

266. Patrap 01:00 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
.Titusville..29.64 East @ 20 Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

267. StormJunkie 01:00 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
H20, I am sure there will be something for all of us to watch before too long. The African coast looks to be heating up. Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15240

268. Patrap 01:03 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
.I am impressed @ Ernies overland odyessy..even with a Good fetch from the GOM & Atlantic all day.His radar sig shows good order in his structure ..and he May surprise usas he ejects out into warm ssts..his time spent here will tell the tale. Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

269. thelmores 01:03 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
amazing that this storm has "absorbed" all the moisture that it has from the state of florida.... based upon the fact that ernesto "already" has a well defined COC.... i am expecting ernesto to intensify fairly rapidly..... the only that that saved south florida from a hurricane, was the small window erny had between cuba and s. florida..... same scenerio here..... ernesto if had 36hrs, instead of 24, it "would" imho be a hurricane..... so if this storm follows to the right of the cone, i bellieve ernesto "will" regain hurricane status..... obviously, the further left of the cone.... less time, less intensity.... but ernesto did not spend his day just biding his time..... he spent the day organizing his structure..... one that i must admit, impresses me after 24hrs on florida..... Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3754

270. ClearH2OFla 01:03 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Ok im just glad i live in clearwater we never will get hit its almost impossible

271. THUNDERPR 01:04 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
hurricane79, is probabbly that this sistem affect Puerto Rico? Member Since: August 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 339

272. Littleninjagrl 01:04 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
It rained 2x at my house today. No wind really. It was nothing. thank god! Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 843

273. melwerle 01:05 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Hey GulfScots - not wishing - just seems that GA doesn't exist as far as these things go. Even local GA tv doesn't report our local stuff - only SC and NC and FL...we are definitely the "armpit" as far as it goes apparently. I'm ready just don't see anything happening - school is cancelled and we are sitting with NOTHING out here - no wind even, no rain. So...first storm ever and it's very quiet...peaceful like a hurricane...lol (Paul Simon) Member Since: Juni 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

274. StormJunkie 01:05 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
AS well I am impressed thel, funny thing is the models sorta saw it coming. Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15240

275. StormJunkie 01:07 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
mel, ya'll have been reall lucky for so long, but one day the luck will run out just like the other areas that feel "lucky" Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15240

276. Patrap 01:08 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
.Cindy last July 4-5 in the GOM is a good xample of a strong Tropical storm, strenghting to a CAt 1 as She Hit Se La .THe population here went to Bed Sun Night Ho-Humming the situ,,Then she cranked up s of Grand Isle..and 75% of the Area woke up with street flooding , no power and lotsa tree damage. That depression went on to Tear the roof offa some of the Atlanta Motor Speedway..and other havoc...SHe was reclassified to Cat 1..Jan06 Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

277. VegasRain 01:09 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
I am fascinated by the model runs for Hurricane John. Could this be a hurricane that makes it into the Gulf of California and hits the Southwest with not just wind, but pouring rain?? Can you imagine what could happen if John came ashore near Yuma AZ and dumps 6+ inches of rain over cities like San Diego, Pheonix or Las Vegas? That would be devastating, as the ground cannot soak up rain, and there is nowhere for the water to go.. I hope that doesn't happen, but it is a real possibility. Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 457

278. Patrap 01:10 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
..local landfall radar loop shows..05 Cindys ..strenghting inner core on the Archives page Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

279. hurricane79 01:11 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
thunderpr, too early to tell because there is the factor of when the system organizes and mid to upper level winds begin to steer it.

280. thelmores 01:13 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Observed at: South Rockledge, Rockledge, Florida Elevation: 25 ft / 7 m [Light Rain] 76.1 �F / 24.5 �C Light Rain Humidity: 93% Dew Point: 74 �F / 23 �C Wind: Calm Wind Gust: 1.0 mph / 1.6 km/h Pressure: 29.55 in / 1000.6 hP lowest pressure on the coast i could find...... Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3754

281. FortLauderdaleNole 01:13 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Good evening yall, just checking in to make sure E didn't do anything surprising today. Have to agree with thel that his organization is pretty impressive after a day trip through the state. Battened down the hatches on the submarines at Kings Bay (FL-GA border) just in case, but I think we're going to be just fine again (LOL armpit). Going to O'Leno state park for the Labor Day weekend...all in all not a bad storm to watch, no one got hurt and I can still go camping... Good luck up North....hope that Ernie is as nice to yall and brings some needed rain...just not too much!!

282. thelmores 01:15 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
" Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:05 AM GMT on August 31, 2006. AS well I am impressed thel, funny thing is the models sorta saw it coming." yea.... but "we" didn't believe it..... and that includes the nhc...... Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3754

283. drusierDMD 01:16 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Link to a weather station on wake island, wont be calm 4 long

284. longislandxpress 01:17 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
At 15 mph Ernesto is holding on to more convection than when approaching the tip of FL. The winds pattern suggest that this will get slightly even better as he heads towards the sc/nc line. It seems the models have shifted towards my earlier prediction ( based on the upper level atmosphere). This may surpass even my admittedly bullish projection of nearly a Cat1 at landfall.

285. thelmores 01:17 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
mel..... you can "wave" at all the activity..... that aint a bad thing!!! and like i said earlier about myrtle beach (or any coastal city)..... NEVER say never! Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3754

286. RAYFROMBOSTON 01:19 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Easy Longisland, dont get carried away. : )

287. nolesjeff 01:19 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Posted By: drusierDMD at 1:05 AM GMT on August 31, 2006. Link to a weather station on wake island, wont be calm 4 long Thats dated Aug 28th. fyi Member Since: Juni 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391

288. fldude99 01:19 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
clearH2O..true words..only 2 places to live in FL and avoid a cane is tampa area and JAX..its unreal Member Since: Juli 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 560

289. Patrap 01:20 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
..Long Island is to be carried away?..Lemme get my camcorder...And velamints.. Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

290. SWLAStormFanatic 01:21 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
How close is Ioke to Wake Island? What is the ETA?

291. nolesjeff 01:21 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
I believe that is when they were evacuated Member Since: Juni 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391

292. RAYFROMBOSTON 01:22 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
I figured that cause last I saw about 2hrs ago Wake island had 37mph sustained w gusts to 45mph. Pressure was 998mb and falling. I'm SURE everything is MUCH worse now!!

294. Ldog74 01:22 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
fldude, storms dont like to go into the big bend either. Member Since: Juni 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 165

295. Patrap 01:23 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
.Joint Typhoon Warning Center..should have an advisory on Ioke.. Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112968

296. SWLAStormFanatic 01:23 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Velamints? (lol)

297. nolesjeff 01:23 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Posted By: fldude99 at 1:16 AM GMT on August 31, 2006. clearH2O..true words..only 2 places to live in FL and avoid a cane is tampa area and JAX..its unreal Famous last words Member Since: Juni 20, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1391

298. kmanislander 01:23 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
I just reviewed the forecast for the season by Dr. Gray and his team. The August only forecast is now way off and other than Ernesto there have been no hurricanes for the season to date. What does this bode for the remainder of the season ?. May we in fact be headed for a BELOW AVERAGE season ??. Are there any developing signs pointing away from an active season ? Dr. M said the switch would be thrown late August but so far that has not materialised. Any thoughts re the rest of the season ?? Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14988

299. RAYFROMBOSTON 01:23 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Patrap, LOL : )

300. StormJunkie 01:23 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Winds are up 20Nm E of Canveral, center is still south of there and pressure is falling. Buoy 41009 Find the National Data Buoy center from here. Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15240

301. fldude99 01:23 AM GMT am 31. August 2006
Ldog..true but i was thinking of places to live..big bend is BFE country Member Since: Juli 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 560

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