Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Nor'easter of 2007 slowly winds down
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 09:25 PM GMT am 16. April 2007 +1
The Nor'easter of 2007 peaked in intensity at 8am EDT today with a central pressure of 967 mb, and has begun a slow decay. At 4pm EDT, the low had weakened to about 979 mb, and was centered over central Long Island. The Nor'easter is forecast to loop across southwest Connecticut and than move south across western Long Island/New York City early this evening as is gradually continues to fill. The worst of the rains and storm surge flooding have already occurred in most areas, but moderate storm surge flooding, freshwater flooding, and high winds will continue to cause problems throughout the Northeast through Tuesday night. A secondary low pressure system is expected to develop Tuesday south of Maine, leading to an increase in winds and storm surge flooding during the high tide cycles on Tuesday along the Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine coasts. Up to 2-3 feet of storm surge flooding is expected along the Massachusetts coast during high tide Tuesday night.

Winds
The highest winds at the coast from the storm were 67 mph gusting to 80mph at 2pm EDT on the Maine coast at Matinicus Rock. The highest winds on top of New Hampshire's Mount Washington were 112 mph, gusting to 138, measured at 11am today.

Rains
Central Park in New York City recorded 7.57 inches of rain yesterday, the most ever from a Nor'easter, and their second highest daily rainfall ever measured. The record was set on September 23rd 1882, when 8.28 inches fell during a slow-moving tropical storm. Rainfall had totalled 8.31 inches at Central Park by 9am today. Rivervale, NJ has had the most rain I could find thus far--9.3 inches.


Figure 1. Total precipitation estimated by radar for the Nor'easter of 2007.

River flooding
All-time record flood levels were recorded or are expected on the Ramapo, Rockaway, and Passaic Rivers in New Jersey. Many rivers were 4-5 feet above flood stage in New Jersey today.

Coastal flooding
A 4-5 foot surge along the western shores of Long Island Sound was the highest from the storm. Wave heights up to 29 feet were measured in Massachusetts Bay.

Snow
Up to 17 inches of new snow fell in the White Mountains of New Hampshire.

I'll post an update on the Nor'easter on Tuesday. My condolences to all those affected by the tragedy today at Virginia Tech, and by today's storm.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Winter Weather
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52. weatherboykris 03:30 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Thanks Tony.
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
53. thunder01 03:35 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
As for the E. Pac. hurricane seson: La Nina generally doesn't bode well for tropical development in the tropical E. Pac. However, La Ninas can sometimes induce a pool of warmer than normal SSTs north of the main negative SST anomaly area (which is near the equator). This can aid in the development or sustenance of tropical systems off the coast of W. Mexico. Steering currents aloft are really more dependent on short and mid-term indicators than the ENSO cycle in the Epac, and these upper level winds are crucial in the transport of tropical moisture into the southwest during the summer months. This sort of warm pool north of the main La Nina region actually is present currently...take a look at the latest SST anomaly maps from the BOM. In other words...don't count out the E. Pac. hurricane season just yet...

More at http://www.weatherwest.com
Link
54. sporteguy03 03:35 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
100 Biggest Weather Moments on the Weather Channel
Any thoughts on Andrew being #62??
That storm changed building codes, warnings, Jim Cantore etc what do you guys think? What should be number 1? Katrina??
Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824
55. sporteguy03 03:35 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Oh Shouldn't Weather Underground make the list?
Member Since: Juli 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824
56. weatherboykris 03:38 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Worldwide,no.Andrew wouldn't crack my top ten,maybe not even twenty.
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
57. Skyepony (Mod) 03:39 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Those hit by storm get tax extension
WASHINGTON — People directly affected by the storm that hit the Northeast on Sunday and Monday are entitled to a two-day extension for filing their tax returns, the Internal Revenue Service said Monday.

Impacted taxpayers will have until midnight Thursday, April 19, to file their taxes. For others, the deadline this year is April 17 because April 15, normally tax day, fell on a Sunday and Monday was Emancipation Day, a legal holiday in Washington D.C.

"Because this unusually forceful storm hit within 24 hours of the filing deadline, we are giving affected taxpayers 48 additional hours," IRS Commissioner Mark Everson said in a statement.

The deadline extension is aimed at helping those directly affected by power outages or public transportation problems such as flight cancellations that made it difficult for people to file their returns on time.

Affected taxpayers, in order to avoid incurring late fees, should mark their paper tax returns with the words "April 16 Storm," the IRS said. Those filing electronically can use their software's "disaster" feature if available.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29376
58. weatherboykris 03:40 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
59. weatherboykris 03:42 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Actually,I'd put the tri-state tornado ahead of Andrew.
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
60. weatherboykris 03:50 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
goodnight
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
61. KoritheMan 03:50 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
The tri-state tornado is definitely one of the more memorable weather events out there. I'd list Charley, Andrew, Ivan, or Katrina as number 1.
Member Since: März 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
62. weatherboykris 03:51 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
worldwide?No,Andrew is not top ten worldwide.
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
63. KoritheMan 03:52 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Oh, no most definitely not. Whoever said it was?
Member Since: März 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
64. weatherboykris 03:54 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Well,the TWC list is worlwide.That's what we're talking about.I thought so,anyway.
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
65. KoritheMan 04:00 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
That is what we are taling about, but I forgot it was "worldwide". Still, I'd rate, IN MY BOOK anyway, Andrew, Katrina, Ivan, Charley, and maybe even Mitch or the Great Hurricane of 1780 (DEFINITELY THAT) as the top weather event of all time.
Member Since: März 7, 2007 Posts: 411 Comments: 15475
66. weatherboykris 04:02 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
No,no,no,LOL.I can think of several events off the top of my head that outdo EACH of those.
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
67. weatherboykris 04:04 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
For one,I'd put Wilma ahead of Andrew on the list.For another,what about the European heat wave that killed ten thousand a few years back?Or the 1970 Bangladesh cyclone?
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
68. weatherboykris 04:04 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
And the tri-state tornado outdoes Andrew and Charley.
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
69. weatherboykris 04:07 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Mitch would definitely be near the top.As is the typhoon tht wiped out the Mongol fleet invading Japan(think about the long term consequences).
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
70. weatherboykris 04:08 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Anyway,goodnight.
Member Since: Dezember 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
72. lightning10 04:26 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
I have counted out the Epac season already. Just look at this PDF...

A dying tropical cyclone brought 2”
of rain to the mountains and deserts of
Southern California during a very
strong El Niño event of 1901-02.

A tropical storm came up into the
Gulf of California and the
southwestern United States, giving the
mountains and deserts heavy rainfall.
Needles received 5.66” of rain, twice
the normal of seasonal rainfall. This
occurred during the El Niño of 1905-
06.

The remnants of a tropical cyclone
moved northward across northern
Baja California into the deserts of
southern California with rainfall of 1
inch at Riverside. This occurred
during the strong El Niño of 1914-15.

Four days of heavy rains from a dying
tropical cyclone brought flooding to
parts of the mountains and deserts of
southern California. Rainfall of 4.38”
fell at Tehachapi in 7 hours on 9.30.
This occurred during the El Niño year
of 1932-33.

4” of rain fell across the deserts and
mountains as a dying tropical cyclone
moved across Baja California into
southwestern Arizona. This was the
second tropical cyclone to affect
California during the busy month of
September 1939. A strong El Niño
contributed to the activity.

A tropical storm moved northward
into northern Baja California and
dissipated with rainfall of up to 4” in
the mountains on 9.30 and exceeding
4” in the mountains on 10.1. This
occurred during the El Niño of 1946-
47.

A hurricane moving north
northwestward just off the west coast
of Baja California moved
northeastward into northern Baja
California and dissipated. Moisture
from this tropical cyclone resulted in
rainfall of 2 to 5” in the mountains
and deserts. Many roads were washed
out in the Imperial Valley, but
otherwise no major damage occurred
in southern California. This occurred
during the El Niño of 1951-52.

A west-northwestward moving
tropical storm southwest of Baja
California dissipated. Moisture from
this storm resulted in rainfall of up to
2” in the mountains and deserts, with
most falling on 9.19. This occurred
during the El Niño of 1951-52.


O and the list goes on and on....

Link
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 629
75. StoryOfTheCane 05:19 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
first Pacific storm could be rapidly approaching


76. thunder01 05:25 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Lightning10:
Quite true. Very strong correlation between strong El Nino events and tropical moisture in CA. La Nina can cause upper lows to form off the SoCal coast during the off-season (summer/fall), and funnel moisture from what few tropical systems may exist into the SW...
77. Starwoman 06:07 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
What a awfull day for you people!! A heavy storm, killing people - a shooting, killing far more people...
Here it is also frontnews.
My thoughts und prayers are with the people who have to experience such terrible things.
savedbygod - that is an absolut awfull experience, having your child shot at! Hope I never have to go through something like that!
Member Since: September 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
78. Inyo 06:38 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
Thunder01, great site, I bookmarked it and will check in on it later. There aren't enough good CA weather blogs out there.

Lightning 10, my personal opinion is that climate change (human caused, natural, or both) is causing California's climate to change on a more broad scale right now, which means that the normal weather associated with ENSO may not apply. (for instance, 04-05 being mostly ENSO neutral or very weak el nino, a stronger el nino in 06-07 bringing extreme drought).

I had a lot to say about this so I made a blog entry on my own page, since it is not related to the New York storm.


Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 765
79. StoryOfTheCane 07:08 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
80. pottery 10:58 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH

10 mm of juicy rain here in the last 24 hrs.
JOYFUL STUFF

Sorry to note the bad happenings in the US. Keep strong..........
Member Since: Oktober 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20722
81. TheCaneWhisperer 11:56 AM GMT am 17. April 2007    
As far as the EPAC area of question! Seems shear is rather destructive in the area.
82. HutchFL 12:11 PM GMT am 17. April 2007    
A chance for severe weather today.....probably beginning late morning/early afternoon in north-central Texas and up to Oklahoma City.
Enough moisture has moved in and conditions look ripe enough for maybe a line of some type to set up, probably a broken line of thunderstorms around the I-35 corridor. Expect this to become more numerous in mid to late afternoon as this moves east and probably washing out in the Arklatex region early evening tonight.
Main threat should be strong winds and hail. SPC has a 5% chance of tornadoes. Low-topped supercells I expect which means quick and fast tornadoes if they do form.
Have a good day everyone.
83. K8eCane 01:16 PM GMT am 17. April 2007    
hope all stay safe
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 2375
84. SteveDa1 01:17 PM GMT am 17. April 2007    
This was a bad 3 days for the US... with the storm and the unfortunate tragedy. Hope everyone is well.
Member Since: Oktober 17, 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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