Another wild night in Tornado Alley
The sirens sounded two more times in tornado-ravaged Greensburg, Kansas last night, as two more twisters tore through the county. However, both tornadoes missed populated areas, as did most of the approximately 75 tornadoes that touched down yesterday. The action should quiet down considerably today; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed most of Kansas and Nebraska under its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather. Sweetwater, Oklahoma received significant damage from a tornado last night, and we've saved 300 Kb animations of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado.
It will take a long time for Greensburg to recover from Friday's tornado. To get an idea of the scale of devastation, see the aerial photos posted by the Wichita Eagle. Damage surveys are not yet complete on the tornado, but photos I've seen of the destruction show damage consistent with EF4 winds(168-199 mph). It is possible the storm was an EF5 (winds more than 200 mph). The nine deaths from the tornado bring the U.S. tornado death toll to 68 so far this year, two more than the toll for all of last year.
We've saved some extraordinary 1 Mb animations of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado. I asked wunderground meteorologist and tornado expert Rob Carver to comment on what's going on in the animations, and here was his analysis:
This was likely an example of cyclic mesocyclogenesis. In a nutshell, the rear-flank downdraft surges out, wraps around and occludes the mesocyclone (Meso A for short). Meso A then veers to the left and dies, this is why tornado family members curve to the left as they dissipate. While Meso A is dying, a new meso spins up and becomes the dominant meso. Now, while I've seen plenty of simulated cyclic cases where the hook retreats when Meso A occludes, I don't think I've seen anything as dramatic.
Figure 1. Radar image of the storm that spawned the Greensburg, KS tornado of May 4, 2007, showing the clearly defined hook echo associated with the twister.
Coastal Carolina storm
The latest (8pm EDT) computer forecast models continue to show a moderately strong coastal storm developing several hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, on Monday. The storm will be extratropical in nature when it forms. We'll have a lot of time to watch the storm, as it is expected to meander offshore for five days and gradually weaken. Water temperatures are 22-23 C off of the coast, which may be warm enough to allow the low to acquire some subtropical characteristics and become the season's first named storm. The models are hinting that the storm could remain over water long enough for this to happen, and I put the odds of a Subtropical Storm Andrea forming late this week at about 20%.
Wunderblogger Mike Theiss was out chasing yesterday and caught some of the storms; be sure to tune into his blog over the next few days to read his chase accounts. Stormchaser Dan Robinson posted some video stills of the Greensburg tornado.
Jeff Masters
A big storm moved in on the 3rd. Wasn't as bad as it looked though.
Reader Comments
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are you stormtop?
your name is just the opposite
stormtop/sprinklebottom
morning all! :)
Very interesting indeed...... at least at this point, seems extra, or sub tropical, as it seems the highest winds are well removed from the center. Quite breezy in myrtle beach this morning.... Steady north wind at 10-15mph, with gusts to 30+......
will be interesting to watch this "storm" develop over the next couple days..... wish we could get a little rain outta this "sucka"......
could this be tropical storm Andrea??
are you gonna stay on WU this season?
stormtop uses all caps all the time
http://www.darenc.com/webcam/mirlo.php
I live in Hatteras and we had gusts over 60 mph late last night, still gusting over 40-50 mph this morning.
(7:50 am EDT)
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 52.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 37.1 ft
37FT WAVES! LOL
THE SURF IS UP! LOL
Wooo hoo, let's get this show on the road, folks.
The others(CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET,GFS)I looked at are still going with the loop then moving off to the E or NE, so the concensus is NOT into the Gulf right now.
I just thought it was worth mentioning.
Disclaimer
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division (Code 7500) Tropical Cyclone Page (Ver.4.16)
Development Team
NOTE: this page is short lived (10 m). DO NOT bookmark it or save it to Favorites. Instead, bookmark http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
No Active Storms
<-- You may select a previously archived storm from the list in the left frame
07/1145 UTC 32.0N 73.1W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
So they're calling it 90L.
Checking in from work and everything looks like we will indeed have sub-tropical storm in our hands pretty soon.Be back in 3 hours.
we certainly have winds that support a named storm! and 37foot waves to boot!
Thel, with the size of that rain shield, we may be able to get some. System really needs to get that dry air out though if it is to become much.
Quick Links - Models, imagery, marine data, and more.
As for the models 06Zgfs, 00Z NOGAPS, UKMET, MRF & ECMWF all take it over & or disapate it in FL (mostly Northern to central).
CMC & GEM has it meander NFL, GA, SC & out to sea.
A TD looks a little less likely. Maybe STD.
Crown~ link here
Patrap~ yeah we're so dry it's gonna take a few of these.. We're like 15" or so behind here.
No storms in the gulf this year.... and no westcasting...
the Navy can update anytime..... I agree with Skye..... they are doing their best to ignore 9OL!
There have already been at least a couple distress calls from ships off the outer banks.... one ship being battered by 34 foot waves!
3 people were in a life raft! talking about a bad day!
That area really gets churning when the waves and winds get this way.
WAKE UP DR. MASTERS! LOL
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