Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Beneficial Barry

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 04:43 PM GMT am 03. Juni 2007

Tropical Storm Barry is no more. Its remnants, now an extratropical storm with top winds of 40 mph over the ocean, are over the Mid-Atlantic coast, moving north-northeastward at 10 mph. Barry's remnants are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic and New England states through Monday. Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named "Subtropical Storm Barry", and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over. Read Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog for more on this.

On Saturday, Barry brought up to seven inches of rain to drought-parched Florida, including an official 6.99" to West Palm Beach, 4.07" to Jacksonville, 5.91" to Savannah Georgia, and 3.17" to Tampa. Barry's rains probably provided tens of millions of dollars of benefit--quite the opposite of what we're used to saying about tropical storms! The fire area near the Florida-Georgia border got between 1-5 inches of rain from Barry, which has dampened but not extinguished the fires. Barry's rains also helped a bit with the Florida drought. However, Barry's rains were only 1-2 inches over central Florida, and they need about 30 inches of rain to pull them out of drought conditions. The summer rainy season typically begins in June, so there is hope that substantial rains are on the way. There doesn't appear to be much rain coming this week, though.

Figure 1. Total rainfall from Barry for northern Florida, estimated by radar.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted Friday. I don't see anything on the horizon for the remainder of this week--wind shear is expected to be high most of this week over the favored breeding grounds for June storms--the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Wind shear may drop enough over the Western Caribbean early next week to allow tropical storm formation, but that is too far in the future to guess at the probability of such an event.

This will be my last "live" blog until Monday June 11; it's time to grab a week of summer vacation while the tropics are quiet. I'm off to see Niagara Falls and the "Grand Canyon of the East", New York's awesome Letchworth State Park. I hope to get some good waterfall rainbow shots to add to my wunderphotos. I've written two canned blogs that will be posted Tuesday and Friday while I'm gone:

Tuesday--We've all used NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, which most often this time of year says, "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours." How accurate are these outlooks? I'll present some verification statistics from 2005 and 2006.

Friday--The NHC made it's best track forecasts ever last year. How good are their forecasts now? Which of the various computer models performed the best last year? I'll have a breakdown of the numbers.

Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"

Strongest tropical cyclone ever seen in Arabian Sea
Follow The View From the Surface blog this week to track Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Fire

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751. sullivanweather 07:56 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Bethel, NY ...LOL Member Since: März 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12492

753. Patrap 07:58 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC) Version 1 GONU Vmax 130knt Link Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

754. sullivanweather 07:59 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Nah, but I have been keeping an eye on the situation. Member Since: März 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12492

755. 4Gaia 08:01 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Sullivan, at least no one can accuse you if wishcasting! Member Since: Mai 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

757. louisianaboy444 08:02 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
I received 1.25 inches of rain in 25 mins...3 quarter inch hail and a 75 mph wind gust...no major damaged except branches down in my neighborhood Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

759. 4Gaia 08:03 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Good, i'm glad you fared well. Member Since: Mai 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

760. Thundercloud01221991 08:03 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Come talk about weather at my website Link Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3693

762. cajunkid 08:08 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
It wont quit! this is getting serious...Abbeville Youngsville and Broussard are gonna wash away Member Since: Juli 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1240

763. louisianaboy444 08:08 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
south louisiana keeps getting round after round of severe weather....another "batch" is forming in southeast texas and pushing this way so maybe a repeat of yesterday...i feel sorry for the cajunkid catching close to 8 inches already in the rainbucket because i'm afraid more might be on the way....could be a dangerous situation down there in the southern suburbs of lafayette be on alert! Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

764. Tazmanian 08:09 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
i think gonu is going to be makeing land fall any where from cat 4 to low end cat 5 what do you think? Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

766. Patrap 08:12 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
CIMMS MIMIC GONU 48hour loop Link Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

767. Patrap 08:13 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
South Louisiana Storm Totals so far today..Link Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

768. Tazmanian 08:15 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
wow its like i am not her Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

770. ricderr 08:16 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
pat....quit boarting that rain....pass it on east and south....we could use some more Member Since: Juni 27, 2006 Posts: 630 Comments: 18090

771. louisianaboy444 08:16 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
whats the count cajunkid!? Looks like the storm is starting to weaken but more is on the way....if you look at the radar the storms are getting cooking in texas and are heading this way...i wouldnt be surprised if we are put under a severe thunderstorm watch box in the next few hours if not the next hour Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

772. Tazmanian 08:17 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ok thank you Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

773. Patrap 08:18 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
The U.S. severe MAp now Link Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

774. Tazmanian 08:18 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
or send some rain my way Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

777. Patrap 08:20 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Ive got the frog Up ric..facing East for ya..Kermits HIGH and dry..Link Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

779. Tazmanian 08:20 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
when is the next BULLETIN for gonu when is 04/2200Z is it soon??? Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

780. MZT 08:20 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
A possible landfall in Oman? Is this going to drive oil futures crazy? Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 782

781. Tazmanian 08:20 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ok Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

782. louisianaboy444 08:21 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Crowley hasnt got in on all the action yet but lets keep it that way! I had my dose yesterday...i'm still trying to pick up trees in my yard! we dont need more here....Im praying for my friends off to the south and east though let the rain stop! Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

783. cajunkid 08:21 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
444, has to be 9"+ in Youngsville Member Since: Juli 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1240

784. louisianaboy444 08:22 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
doesnt the vermillion river run close to that area...i'm not excatly sure on that but if it keeps up we will have to start monitoring the river! Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

787. cajunkid 08:26 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
444, yea, it runs right under that red blob that hasn't moved all day. Funny we just have sprinkles @ the airport. Member Since: Juli 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1240

789. louisianaboy444 08:27 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
and it is still kicking too i'm looking at the radar and it shows no signs of letting up! Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

790. cajunkid 08:28 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
now look at the radar UNBELIEVABLE Link Member Since: Juli 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1240

791. Patrap 08:29 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Its like the Energizer Bunny of Train Echoes...Link Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

793. louisianaboy444 08:31 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
that storm that is about to hit me in southern acadia parish will probably merge with your cell and here we go again! this is really serious Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

794. Patrap 08:31 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico..showing the Blowup here today.. Link Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

795. Patrap 08:32 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
4-panel Water Vapor Loop Link Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112929

796. RL3AO 08:33 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
Gonu looks incredible. I hope this thing doesnt destroy any oil platforms.

797. cajunkid 08:33 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
what about those nice palm tree shaped islands in Dubai? I know they will get some strong north west winds. Member Since: Juli 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1240

798. louisianaboy444 08:34 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
but you know whats really awkward we are getting the worst weather it seems in a long time down here in southern louisiana but the local weather stations are not calling for any severe storms just "pop up" thunderstorms! Unbelieveable! Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

799. Tazmanian 08:34 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
take a look at this Member Since: Mai 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

800. cajunkid 08:35 PM GMT am 04. Juni 2007
the sun is shinning here now...I'm just off Pinhook close to the airport. This is crazy Member Since: Juli 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1240

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