Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wow RL3AO that weird.....

sammy part of Barry's low presure is on land.

I didnt feel like typing them out.

Posted By: MichaelSTL at 7:31 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

Four - Emily (929 mb, 160 mph), Katrina (902 mb, 175 mph), Rita (895 mb, 180 mph) and Wilma (882 mb, 185 mph).

I didn't have to look them up either (including their intensities).


thats good. I can't remember them although i do remember the names.

Emily only 929 mb? What a weak storm. :)

this year i am gonna say that 4 cat 5 will for two will hit the U.S.

Big Boomers still..on the move ese..Link

I didnt feel like typing them out.

I mean we said almost the exact same thing at the same time.

Considering a Cat 5 hasnt hit the U.S. in 15 years, I wouldnt count on it Drakoen.

Heading for landfall on Somalia.

Somalia? I thought it was going to hit Oman at last forecast.

It is heading for Oman...or Yemen. I get those two confused.

Surge...August 29,2005 St. Bernard Parish

Dosent have to be a Cat -5 at landfall to create Calamity. A cat-3/4 pushing a Cat-5 surge will do the deed.

Hey Jeff just to let you know becarefull by saying "central Florida only 1 to 2 inches" the entire tampa bay area had between 3 and 6 inches of rain, the same for the east coast, rains were only in the 1 to 2 inches well inland for central Florida, because as you headed toward the east coast places like melbourne had between 5 and 6 inches of rain as well.

By the way I picked up 6 inches here in pinnelas county..

Posted By: RL3AO at 7:34 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

Considering a Cat 5 hasnt hit the U.S. in 15 years, I wouldnt count on it Drakoen.


LOL "Special season" :). You never know. "It could happen Tommorrow"

Driving around after Sunrise ..a good short video from August 29th 05 , Downtown area Link

PINLOLE EYE!!!

LOL

lol there is hardly any convective activty around the COC just CDO.

Jeez, Pat. Stuff like this should encourage every body who can to GET OUT before the storm . . .

lol..thel....looks better now than it did before

Thats why I post them Baha

I'm looking for a pic of that Arabian Sea system right now.

can some post the link to the models i am on a different computer and i don't have the link saved. I also wanted to ask where the mmfsu model comes from.

It was mainly inland central florida that lacked in less rain then expected, coastlines got it pretty good including me.

Folks this thing was a TS not sub-TS, you could clearly see it had lost its baroclinic appearance and the warm front by the time it was declared one by the NHC.

The center went right over me, along with it came a band of deep convection with lightning and the air temp rose from 72 before the storms came in to 75 during the storms and rain rates were 2 to 5 inches per hour, also winds were only 15 to 20 mphh before the center moved in but increased rapidly to around minimal T.S. force then quickly died down as the storm raced by brining nothing but clear skies folled by low clouds ands spinklles on the back side.

Dew point was 79 in the center and it was dead calm and clear.


I experienced it my self here in pinnelas county it was still completely tropical at that time, there was still a small core of strong winds in thunderstorms just to the northeast of the center, and it was definitely warm core.

Those examples alone combined with the fact the NHC kept it tropical for a reason are good examples that it was tropical still.


Too bad it was so disorganized or rain would have been a lot heavier with more banding near the core and less uneven rain totals.

But Jedkins it just so happened that the NHC gave out there advisory at the time that Barry looked its best. Lets say 3 hours latter and it would have been snamed sub tropical storm. Jeff says is should have been named sub tropical storm Barry and he is the PHD. Although you are entitled to your opinion. The NHC should have taken the asymetrical organization of the system as well as the fast moving upper level winds into consideration when naming it. Barry's intereaction with the upper level wind dynamics made everyone in South Florida get Rain. It was borderline Tropical storm at the time it was named. I will still say that the NHC should have renamed it sub tropical storm barry in the second advisory. You could see that it quickly lost the heavy convection it had the was north of the COC. the main reasons why the NHC decided to name this thing was that at the time of the RECON they happened to find deep convection and in that 50 mph winds were found and pressure at 997 mb. The system had that Subtropical look to it. The system was very ragged to begin with and i am surprised at the fact that it was able to "organize" somewhat in the hostile environment. I want to see what they say during the off season analysis.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 8:12 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

thank you Jedkins for showing some proof that Barry was indeed tropical and the NHC knew what they were doing, there were some who doubted them, kind of sad really

but those observations you showed proves this system was tropical at time of landfall
The system was cleary not tropical at landfall IMHO. the Low level circulation was displaced from the convective activity. and most of the high winds were found on the east side of the system similar to what a subtropical or extratropical system would have. I don't clssify a tropical system as making landfall with a completely naked eye abd barely a central dense overcast.

Here's a very strong storm coming off of Africa.
This could develop in the near future.It's very well orgainized and the waters around that storm are very warm.There's not much shear with the storm.

yes tropic freak but this time of year its rare for anything to form there and none of the models are hinting tropical cyclone formation.

I'm located in crowley louisiana the line of thunderstorms are just to my west....blackening up in the western sky!

Barry was more tropical than Andrea ever was. At least it formed in the tropics and was warm core. The rain sure had that steady, tropical remnant feel to it...

Not that I'm a big defender of the classification either. It really was not a "classical" tropical storm and I think a subtropical designation would have made as much sense.

I've been thinking about an idea I read about in a book called "The Far Pavilions," which was set in India. There is mention of an primitive air conditioning system that was said to work well - essentially an water-evaporation cooling system.

My take is this:

Buy large pieces of burlap (or any loosly woven fabric) - large enough to fit the opening in your sliding glass door and/or window. Soak the burlap in water (you could use the water you've already saved in your bathtub), then hang in the door or window where the wind is blowing into your house. I think those office-type (black and silver) clips could be used for attachment to the door or window frame. You could also make a lightweight frame and attach the burlap to it.

You could also rig up a tray of some sort for the run-off (if any) from the soaked burlap to run into, thereby recycling some of the water.

I haven't actually done this myself, but I plan to give it a try now in case we lose power this summer. I live in Port Orange, FL, so I expect it to be humid, so if anyone knows whether this would work in this type of climate, I welcome your advice/opinions.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 8:23 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

um Drakoen the fact that the highest winds and most of the convection was displaced from the center only proves that shear was present, there are tons of storms that look like that

how about Alberto last year, same thing
Earl from 1996, same thing

the only thing your statement proves is that shear was present and thats all

No. tropical system are know to have there deep convection around the Low pressure along with hihg winds. This system had a brief period in which deep convection was north of the center of circulation along with the winds. The system was asymetrical. Look at Barry now. I don't see much of a difference when it made landfall i Florida other than more of a warm core system.

yeah my parish and the surrounding parishes are under severe thunderstorm warnings! the lightning is popping like crazy outside but not rain yet! what is a dercho?