Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Morning all,

I have to admit nothing much looks impressive this morning.

Except, perhaps, that ridge of high pressure that looks to be setting up across the Central Atlantic. Whoo-ee boy, I sure do hope that's not where we get a permenant high feature. That would spell disaster for practically the entire region, but especially the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida.

...yep, Baha...a really rough spot for that high. If this were later in the season, we'd all be in a bind I'm sure!

BaHa

For us dumb people that just lurk here to listen and learn ... could you explain the significance of the high now and if it was later in the season.

Thanks

Morning everyone, looks like I haven't missed too much

i go for the NNW track.
Shear is low enough.
It will develop.
Not rapidly but this all could change once it reaches the GOM.
So Mississippi is a possibility.
TS very likely,hurricane unlikely but if it does follow that track and shear would fall in GOM coming days we have a hurricane.
sst is warm enough in GOM to give it strenght.

I'm one of the dumb people who normally just listen, but I believe the significance of the high later in the season is that any storms that form off of Africa (which start forming later in the season) would be funneled down the South side of the ridge of high pressure and all of them would be aimed right at us.

...sonofagunn, nice answer! T R O U B L E, it would be!

...lol, D O U B L E T R O U B L E ! ! !

Looks to me as if its not even going to make it to the GOM , Looks to be blowing East toward the Atlantic.

Yeah, that's just about right LOL.

The reason why this high interests me right now is that, as someone indicated earlier this week, the location of the Atlantic high at the end of June is often the general area where high pressure will hang out for much of the summer. The location of that high last year saved us in the Caribbean and the US from the worst of last years' hurricanes, almost all of which recurved harmlessly long before approaching the Eastern seaboard.

Here's hoping it retreats north and east. Then we can enjoy the thrill without being on the hot seat . . .

Anyway, I'm out. I gotta go to work this a. m.

Why does the NHC say this thing is moving NW???? Thats not even close! its getting pushed off to the ENE and it looks like the center is reforming way farth to the east.

This is now a whole new ball game with it this far East does it still look like the West side of Florida

The ULL is moving ENE bringing convection from 94L with it.

G35,
that's shear, and you see the cloud tops rotating as they blow off. It may reform farther east, lets see what happens later when new convection starts

Is anyone elses Atlantic Loops not working?

I can't get the loops to work in IE, I have to switch over the Firefox.

Oh I did not realise we had some actual action in the Caribbean....

I just dont see anything Moving NNW.

Loop has me dizzy now..lol

it is not because its not moving NW at the moment that it could not go NW tomorrow or two days from now.
Have to wait and see.

Its funny how so many think the spin thats moving ENE near cuba is 94L...lol...it is not...thats the ULL pulling convection and just about everything else from 94L with it...its gonna be at least a few (4-6) hours before this thing can even hold convection near its center...and by that time theres some lovely dry filling in behind the ULL. This dry air is gonna give 94L a run for its money as it drifts northward...20% chance this thing developes at all unless it gets alot of convection with it before moving up into the gulf...Work time...Ill check back in with you guys later....

Chris.

good morning everyone it seems i missed alot last night so do i understand right that we have an invest

good morning all

It is questionable whether Navy should have even classified this as 94L in the first place. Perhaps if they had waited for the quikscat pass last night they would not have. I was sceptical from late yesterday afternoon as to whether the "spin" everyone was attributing to a surface low was not in fact more related to the ULL that was passing overhead at the time and the QS pass now shows that there is no closed low even though there was and still is a low near Cozumel. Whether or not it can develop with the ULL having moved away is still in doubt given overall upper level wind conditions

kman that low near cuba is an upper level low.

looks like the models have changed their mind and have the system going thorugh Central-South Florida.

WOW, STL. That really IS bad. If this stays in place throughout the season, pray and prepare. LOL!

Drak

I should have said low pressure even though it has risen 4 mb from the lowest point. In any event you will recall that I had my doubts as to the actual strength and organization of 94L and those doubts have verified

Yeah kman, I'm beginning to wonder if 94L will hold up for another 6 hours. It may die off very quickly.

Posted By: kmanislander at 12:25 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Drak

I should have said low pressure even though it has risen 4 mb from the lowest point. In any event you will recall that I had my doubts as to the actual strength and organization of 94L and those doubts have verified

hehe i doubt anythhing will work to the surface.

I want to update my tropical weather blog today, but should I, given the current unfavorable upper-level winds over the system, as well as its lack of organization? The ULL seems to be choking off all of the convection that 94L tries to build.

Should I really update?

Koritheman and Drak

The WV loop shows nothing but hostile winds streaming W to E from the Gomex across the NW Caribbean. I know Barry defied high shear but it won't happen like that often LOL
Anyway got to get ready for the day. Will check in later

Link

If we have the high there a month from now it means big trouble.

Morning all, as I said last nite. nothing going on with 94L. Now we need a new blob. LOL

morning all! :)

GFS still shows a Pensacola storm in 6 days! LOL

UKMET shows notta!

and the FSU site has no GFDL, and the PSU site won't let me see the GFDL (forbidden! LOL)

from the looks of things, the models are not doing well on 94L.

Posted By: kmanislander at 12:29 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Koritheman and Drak

The WV loop shows nothing but hostile winds streaming W to E from the Gomex across the NW Caribbean. I know Barry defied high shear but it won't happen like that often LOL
Anyway got to get ready for the day. Will check in later

yea which is what i said over and over yesterday about the strong upper level winds.

thelmores the CMC take it though south Florida.

I agree Cayman, I think 94L was premature. Which is not to say it wont become a much needed rainmaker. That having been said, what is going to happen after these areas of shear dissapate. It may be an interesting August for the Carib. and Gulf.

looks like there is still a low south of cozumel, but little convection!

Whats the link to Sketobite or whatever its called????

Ican't get over the increase in sst's the past week or so.

have not seen the 1506 CMC yet....... only see the 1500 CMC......

Or where do you get the Spag Models??

the shear is still high because the trough has yet to move north. When it does we could see some organization. TWC say there is a mid level spin just west of cuba. Thats what they are watching to see if something can come down to the surface.

Welcome back Rat! I havent seen your posts since last year.

Hey All....All of the convection that was trying to form around the low yesterday (looked impressive yesterday) is getting blown to bits by shear off to the NE so I do not think that there will a flight this afternoon to invest....In accordance with the NHC outlook, we should not expect anything until next week (Seems like Dr. M was right on when he took his family vacation advising us that nothing significant would develop for a few weeks based upon sheer and other conditions)..

looking at things, looks like the low south of Cozumel will slowly drift northward today....

BAMM's fom 00 show NW! LOL