African disturbance 92L chugs west; California fires generating significant pollution
A strong tropical wave (Invest 92L) is a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westwards at 15-20 mph. The low is under about 5-10 knots of wind shear, which is favorable for development. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, which is about 2-3°C above average for this date, and well above the 26°C threshold for tropical storm formation. There is not much African dust or dry air near the storm, but the low appears much as it did yesterday, with little heavy thunderstorm activity. The low has plenty of spin, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1). One 35 mph (30 knot) wind vector was noted to the southwest of the storm's center in the QuikSCAT data, so 92L is kicking up some strong winds. There aren't really any negatives for development, except for climatology--there has never been a tropical depression that has formed east of 34° longitude in the first half of July (see the first image I posted in my July Atlantic hurricane outlook). NHC is giving a medium (20-50% chance) that 92L will develop into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. All the models are developing this system into a tropical depression by Saturday. Wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to remain below 10 knots for the next four days, and the waters will stay warm (above 26°C) for the next 2-3 days of 92L's life. None of the computer models foresee that 92L will become a threat to land, and it currently appears that the storm will recurve in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, east of Bermuda.
Figure 1. QuikSCAT image of 92L from 3:12am EDT Wed July 2, 2008. Image credit: Paul Chang, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.
California fires cause significant air pollution
It was a destructive April, May, and June for fires in California, with 889,000 acres burned (71% of this acreage since June 20!) This is over five times the acreage burned during the same months in 2007. Satellite-detected fires from April through June this year totaled over 13,000, compared to only 1,200 during the same time period in 2007. These fires have caused many cities in the state to exceed the EPA's daily standard of 35 µg/m3 for particulate air pollution (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Location of all satellite-detected fires from last year (left panel) and this year (right panel) for the months of April through June, along with the number of days when surface particle pollution exceeded EPA's daily standard in several major cities in California. Image credit: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Air quality is improving this week in California due to the onset of west-southwesterly winds aloft that have enhanced mixing and dispersion in the atmosphere. The moist flow of air off the ocean has brought fog and raised humidity levels, aiding firefighting efforts. However, with fire season's peak still months away, expect many more fires and significant pollution episodes later this summer.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ITS OFFICIAL!!!!!
just wnated to get that out of the way....
now...
the next question is not if...
BUT WHEN...
will it destroy NEW ORLEANS.
(sorry pat.. just some ST humor)
Obviously you have no sympathy for those that lost family or those that died in Katrina, I don't find your humor humorous at all.
Oh good the rest of ya'll are around..JP, Drak, freak..any thoughts.
I updated by blog today.
Out for real now!
456~ look at this. It's the blob behind Douglas. The one forecast by a concensis of models for days the become a hurricane & landfall on Mexico in 3-4 days. Shouldn't this be an invest?
It should...it looks alot more impressive than TD 02.
286. CaneAddict 4:37 PM GMT on July 02, 2008
279. Drakoen 4:31 PM GMT on July 02, 2008
The 12z runs would usually say 02L when a depression has formed. We'll see what happens. 50% chance we have a depression.
I'm not so sure of a depression just yet. The circulation is still rather broad and there is'nt really any heavy/intense convection with it...let alone the overall organization just doesent seem to fit a Tropical Depression just yet....
The circulation is not broad according to the Quicksat and there are multiple 30-35 knot wind barbs.
That's true..I guess it just appears broad. :)
Higher resolution QS shows multiple barbs of over 50 knots...
...in the rain contaminated areas. This is a known weakness of quikscat.
Sorry; that should say 40 knots :P just what I deserve for not looking at the legend. But if you look to the NW and immediate W of the center in the high res image, you can dinstinguish a few fresh (colored), uncontaminated barbs of about 40 knots between the contaminated ones.
The cyclogenesis probability is persisting with a small chance of that east coast blob turning into something:
ITS OFFICIAL!!!!!
just wnated to get that out of the way....
now...
the next question is not if...
BUT WHEN...
will it destroy NEW ORLEANS.
(sorry pat.. just some ST humor
No heart
I love it when you talk technical like that LOL
They'll wait til 5... It's part of the you scratch my back I'll scratch yours with the media deal.
They don't issue major advisories at 5:00pm. They are doing the TWO with the TWD. They explained that at the beginning of the season. I don't remember why.
It is strange. Normally NHC would issue a Unnumbered Depression / Suspicious Area Advisory when a storm is numbered outside of normal advisory times. Also, NRL has 92LNONAME also listed, and the TFCA text stated "data does not justify issuance of a numbered tropical cyclone warning at this time".
456~ I didn't even think of that. Does look better than TD2.
284. FLWeatherFreak91
I love it when you talk technical like that LOL
The marine layer is currently sitting on the coast like a big glop of frosting on top of a cupcake....with some rainbow colored sprinkles thrown in for good measure...not to be outdone by their Southern neighbors, the Northern coast is still burning like a disco inferno....
285. Weather456
It is strange. Normally NHC would issue a Unnumbered Depression / Suspicious Area Advisory when a storm is numbered outside of normal advisory times. Also, NRL has 92LNONAME also listed, and the TFCA text stated "data does not justify issuance of a numbered tropical cyclone warning at this time".
It's contradictory.
Christina is gone. Any minute now we should see 97E.
"TO:SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES
FROM:THERESE Z. PIERCE
CHIEF...MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH
SUBJECT:CHANGE TO THE ISSUANCE TIMES FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC TEXT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWO/
PRODUCTS: EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008 AND JUNE 1 2008...
RESPECTIVELY
REFER TO:PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT TRANSMITTED MAR 18 2008
FOR EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL TWO PRODUCT
BEGINNING MAY 15 2008 FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE
BASIN...AND BEGINNING JUNE 1 2008 FOR THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE
BASIN...IN RESPONSE TO USER FEEDBACK AND IN COORDINATION WITH THE
SCHEDULE FOR OTHER NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS...THE
ISSUANCE TIMES FOR THE TEXT TWO WILL CHANGE AS FOLLOWS.
1. FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...THE CURRENT TWO ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 0400/1000/1600/AND 2200 PACIFIC LOCAL TIME. EFFECTIVE MAY 15
2008 THE NEW ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 0500/1100/1700/AND 2300
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 0400/1000/1600 AND
2200 PACIFIC STANDARD TIME...OR 0000/0600/1200 AND 1800
COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/.
2. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THE CURRENT TWO ISSUANCE TIMES ARE
0530/1130/1730/AND 2230 EASTERN LOCAL TIME. EFFECTIVE JUNE 1 2008
THE NEW ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 0200/0800/1400 AND 2000 EASTERN
DAYLIGHT TIME...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 0100/0700/1300 AND 1900
EASTERN STANDARD TIME...OR 0000/0600/1200 AND 1800 UTC.
THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE TO THE PRODUCT CONTENT.
"
Another record as this depression is only the second storm on record to form this far east in July with bertha in 96 being first.
From my point of view as of now this system has a slim chance at being a threat to the united states.This system should turn well east of bermuda the way i see things shapeing up.It will be interesting to see how things evolve in the coming days. Adrian
directory went back to 92L.INVEST
LOL...weather in terms of comfort food
How are you Monk?
i think the breakdown in the high (weakness) is overstated and will see a left tendancy in models.
Overstated by 10 models or so that have been consistent with the break down in the ridge? Even if it where to recurve later it would just meet the TUTT.
92L is back...must have been a glitch.
and a funny one at best.....to lead ppl like that...lol
They took down 02L Noname....wierd
Somebody's finger slipped and pushed the "02L.NONAME" button earlier.
Definitely; if it really hasn't been upgraded, the NRL probably just gave thousands of onlookers the idea that a depression had formed. What a teaser.
992 MB central pressure for 92L.. ?!
02L.TWO.30kts.992mb.12.0N.20.0W
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