LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion

Well, for a change there really isn't a lot to talk about in the tropics right now but I'll give you a discussion of the synoptic scale events driving weather in the tropics....

In the Gulf.....

Water vapor and IR loops pretty much tell the story here.



A dry cool airmass has dropped into the SE and covers pretty much the entire SE quarter of the US. A fairly strong jet extends from the Yucatan across western Cuba and into the Atlantic heading NE. Until this deep trough moves out and is replaced by high pressure, the Gulf Coast is pretty protected at the moment from anything that might develop in the Caribbean. But at the moment, nothing is forecast.

In the Caribbean....

There had been an area of high pressure east of the Bahamas that had provided a lot of upper level divergence but that has shifted NE a bit and weakened. The flow over the Caribbean is fairly weak at the moment and the extensive convection that was seen there over the last week has abated somewhat although there is still some convection along the land areas of Central America most likely associated with the transitional monsoonal trough that occurs there.

In the western Atlantic....

The jet and a pretty impressive cold front for this time of year extends from a low in eastern Canada out into the Atlantic and southwestward through the Bahamas and on to the Yucatan as previously mentioned. The retreating high pressure area that was off the Bahamas has weakened and shifted NE a bit to a point east of Bermuda.

In the central and eastern Atlantic....

A couple of upper level lows can be seen over the open Atlantic, one near 18N 55W moving west toward the Caribbean, another stronger low near 30N 43W. An area of high pressure has persisted near the Cape Verde islands for most of the season and has helped to provide divergence for the systems that have developed off Africa. But the ITCZ in the eastern Atlantic has been pretty quiet and there is nothing showing out there on satellite at the moment. As Dr. Master's indicated, the Cape Verde season is pretty much over.



That's about it. I'm working on a new weather lesson that I hope to get posted by the end of the month on tropical weather.

Randy