Lefty06's Blog

TD 1

Posted by: Lefty06, 05:15 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006

Td 1 has formed. Its has started. will be looking at model data all day to give my assumption on possible intensity or track. right now i wil post the nhc's disscussion as well as some images showing our lil td

right now td1 is very asymetrecle. most of its mostire is speread over her northern and eastern sections. the system has a very poor center and this we have an unorginised storm. i highley diubt wiht the shear, dry air and poor center we see any significant intensification though movemnt to ts status is not out of the question.

Now the nhc disscussion

Tropical Depression ONE Forecast Discussion
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Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 101459
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEW DATA TO COME IN SINCE THE SPECIAL ADVISORY
WAS A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1115Z. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR
SYSTEMS WITH 30-35 KT WINDS... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT QUIKSCAT
GREATLY OVERESTIMATED THE WIND SPEEDS IN RAIN-CONTAMINATED AREAS IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
AREAS... THE RETRIEVED WINDS WERE AS STRONG AS 25-30 KT... SO
HOLDING THE ESTIMATE FOR THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT SEEMS
REASONABLE.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL SMALL
CIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS STILL 340/10 BUT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LACKING ANY NEW TRACK GUIDANCE... THE
SCENARIOS PAINTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALL REMAIN
POSSIBILITIES. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CANADIAN MODELS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD
TOWARD TEXAS. MEANWHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE
DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS... WITH THE LARGER ONE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREAT THIS AS A SINGLE RECURVING SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY... THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DOMINATE OVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM... AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A
HURRICANE APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THAT ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN PEAKS AT 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF... GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS
SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 21.5N 85.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 22.9N 86.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 24.7N 86.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 27.8N 85.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 14/1200Z 36.5N 74.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/1200Z 45.0N 63.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Water Vapor Imagery. Notice the dry air to the NW.

Visible Imagery. Notice the outflow trying to develop

IR Imagery. notice lack of cold cloud tops. most likley due to some diurnial heating limiting convection.

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1. code1 05:18 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
1st on da Leftyy's blog! Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872

2. Lefty06 05:19 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
lol hey code

3. code1 05:19 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
Welcome back! Will check in later, as I am not too concerned now. Ready to enjoy the sunshine. See ya. Friends will come rolling in soon. Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872

4. code1 05:19 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
You have been missed my friend. Family well? Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872

5. Lefty06 05:25 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
yeah all is well. been working alot but other than that i amk so ready to do this

6. code1 05:27 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
Good to hear! I am out for now. See ya later. Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872

7. Raysfan70 05:28 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
lefty be very very careful. LOL (dr.masters blog). LOL Full moon tommorow is all I have to say. LOL Member Since: Juli 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57352

8. Lefty06 05:33 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
lol yeah its all good. after 2005 they expect everything to turn ct 5 in the gulf. its in a veru hostile enviroment and its a shock she has survived this far but nothibg major will come from this. possible flooding rains and mudslides but no major cane

9. Raysfan70 05:33 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
LOL. Just hoping for the rain for Florida. Put out some of the fires. Glad to see that you are back. Member Since: Juli 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57352

10. Sprout 05:37 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
Lefty, I was very happy to sing on and see you are ready to go... I'll keep checking in for updates. Thankfully, looks like this one will be mostly a rain event. Lord knows we need it here in central FLA.

11. Lefty06 05:40 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
yeah i think some of the south wil see some good rains form this. but lets no forget the tornado threat. as these squalls move thru florida over the enxt couple days i would not be suprised to see tornado warnings popping up. besafe nd make sure u have a safe room for incase ur under a tornado warning

12. newinfl 06:46 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
Lefty, enjoyed the information that you provided last season and look forward to viewing your info this season. Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

13. Gatorboy 06:56 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
i hope this storm becomes a ts by 11:59 tonight

14. Gatorboy 06:57 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
or i lose the t shirt contest.

15. snowboy 07:02 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
Excerpt from 2 pm NHC update: AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY. REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...21.7 N...85.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546

16. seflagamma 08:51 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
Lefty, you got your blog up and running again! Saw you on Dr M's blog also. We are also on weatherguy03's blog for weather stuff. keeping quite busy this afternoon! Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

17. seflagamma 08:52 PM GMT am 10. Juni 2006
So glad you are back!!! Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

18. LakeWorthFinn 01:50 AM GMT am 11. Juni 2006
When's the next NHC advisory due? Member Since: Oktober 6, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6960

19. LakeWorthFinn 01:52 AM GMT am 11. Juni 2006
Hi all.. uh, my manners (slap slap) Have been mostly lurking all day. This is the time to shut up and listen. And maybe ask a question or two from experts. LOL! Member Since: Oktober 6, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6960

20. snowboy 06:25 AM GMT am 11. Juni 2006
The 11 pm ET NHC advisory is essentially unchanged, next one due 5 am.. Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546

21. mjinpcola 06:33 AM GMT am 11. Juni 2006
Nice to see ya again Lefty! I live in Pensacola.. Looks like we won't get any of that precious rain.

22. HillsboroughBay 08:31 AM GMT am 11. Juni 2006
^

23. Precis3377 08:34 AM GMT am 11. Juni 2006
(((LEFTY!!!))) So glad to see you! I hate to admit it ; ), I missed ya! Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 1241

24. HillsboroughBay 08:50 AM GMT am 11. Juni 2006
Tropical Depression ONE Public Advisory 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED... INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...540 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND A MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...23.5 N...87.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$

25. code1 02:29 PM GMT am 11. Juni 2006
Time for your update and thoughts my man! Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872

26. WildHorseDesertTx 02:55 PM GMT am 11. Juni 2006
I believe that it will continue to build very slowly for the next 12 hours. The BAM model just makes more sense to me than the others. I think it will pretty much turn even more westward, then mostly fizzle out due to high shear. If it makes it to the mid Texas coast it will just be a rain maker, probably not even at depression status anymore. I doubt Florida gets more than the feeder bands of rain that they are getting now. Member Since: Juli 23, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 107

27. CatChaser 01:54 AM GMT am 21. Juni 2006
lol wheres lefty at? wow what a loser

28. LakeWorthFinn 07:35 PM GMT am 29. Juli 2006
Diggin' your blog up lol! Would love to have your input on the waves and whatever else you'd like to comment and send regards to family. Member Since: Oktober 6, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6960

29. seflagamma 07:39 PM GMT am 29. Juli 2006
I second that emotion!!! LOL!! Lefty I asked SJ where the heck you were and he said you were very busy but will return as soon as something forms... we need you now!!! Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

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