Just Temperature

By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 03:19 PM GMT am 25. März 2012

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Just Temperature:

The U.S. has just experienced an intense heat event with many records falling in the eastern half of the U.S. Here is Chris Burt’s post on the historic event. There is an excellent discussion of this event and its relation to a warming climate by Andrew Freedman at Climate Central. (Global Warming May Have Fueled March Heat Odds) I have a talk to give next week, and I am sure that the heat will contribute to questions. A question that has been put to me frequently in the past weeks is that should we expect such high temperatures in the future?

Usually when I talk about evidence of a warming, I talk about coherent and convergent evidence. That is, one can’t just look at the global surface temperature data and state that the planet has warmed. But if you look at the surface temperature data along with many other sources of data, then one finds that the evidence of warming is overwhelming. If you add the impacts of this warming to ecosystems, for example, the observations that spring is coming earlier over most of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere, then the evidence becomes smothering. For me and many others this evidence of warming is convincing, but it relies on pulling together information from many sources, explaining their relationships, and presentation of the information. So as people have asked me about the heat in Michigan and Maine this past week, I have thought of what I could do with just temperature. Here is the thread that I put together.

The last month when the global mean monthly average was below the 20th century average was February 1985. Here is a picture of the difference from the 100 year average of temperature data from each February. It has been 324 months since there was a month below the global average temperature. (Not 324 Februarys, 324 consecutive months.) Looking at the graph, the Southern Hemisphere, which is dominated by the ocean, goes back into the 1970s. There have been Februarys in the Northern Hemisphere with little blips below average.



Figure 1: February monthly difference from a 20th century average of all Februarys. From the National Climatic Data Center.

The average in this figure is based on the entire 20th century. Therefore, if you look at the record during the 20th century, there is a balance between the warm and the cold months. This fact comes directly from the definition of calculating the differences from an average. There is a famous 1930s warm period. This warm period is present in the February time series, but compared with a later span centered around 1960, this period in not as intense. A prominent characteristic of the graph is that on the left, in the first part of the 20th century, it is cooler than the average and on the right, the here and now, it is warmer.

To go along with the February graph, I have placed the graph from August 2011. The main part of the story, that in 1900 it was cooler than in 2000 remains the same. Here, in the Northern Hemisphere summer, the 1930s warm period is more prominent and more global than in February. In is easy to conclude from this figure that the spatial extent and the temporal persistent of the current warming are both far larger than in the spurt of warmth of the 1930s.



Figure 2: August monthly difference from a 20th century average of all Augusts. From the National Climatic Data Center.


I started this article with the question is the current heat event in the U.S. what we can expect in the future? Taking this simple argument, looking at the average for the past, almost 30 years, it seems reasonable to expect it be warm. And given, the relentless increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, we should expect it to be warmer in the future. To expect otherwise would be betting against the average.

Betting against the average – the next plot, Figure 3, is adapted from a 2009 paper by Jerry Meehl and a host of other authors. (Original Paper, Paper Discussion from NCAR ) What this figure shows, for the U.S., is the number of new record highs divided by the number of record lows – the ratio of highs to lows. In a simplistic, intuitive way, if the average temperature where staying the same, then one would expect the number of new record highs and the number of new record lows to be about the same. What is seen in the figure is as we go from the 1980s to the 1990s to the 2000s, there is trend of record highs out numbering record lows by a factor of 2 to 1. Comparing this with Figures 1 and 2, this evolution of new record highs outpacing new record lows occurs during the time when there has not been a month below the global 20th century average.



Figure 3: Adapted from Meehl et al. (2009) the ratio of U.S. record highs and record lows by decade.

The next figure I show is another version of the global difference figure. This one is calculated as differences from 1950 onwards in order to overlap with the data from the Climate Prediction Center that identify El Nino and La Nina Cycles. El Nino and La Nina are names given to frequently occurring patterns of variation that are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but that change the average temperature of Earth for about a year. When there is an El Nino then the globe is warmer and when there is a La Nina the globe is cooler.



Figure 4: Global temperature differences with El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cool) years marked. From National Climatic Data Center.

Looking first at the La Nina years, 1985, the last year when the Earth was cooler that the 20th century average was a La Nina year. One could say that this was the last year when the variation associated with La Nina was strong enough to counter the warming trend enough for the Earth to appear “cool.” What is striking is that the La Nina years in the past three decades are systematically warming. This suggests that in the La Nina cool period, we are seeing a warmer and warmer background, average, temperature evolving.

The warm phase of this variation does not paint as easy a picture. The very strong 1997-1998 El Nino famously raised the Earth’s temperature to a point that many argue was the warmest year observed. The subsequent El Nino events are not as strong as the 1997-1998 El Nino, and each one has temperature maximum that flirts with the 1998 maximum. It is important to note that in 1998 the entire positive anomaly of temperature was not due to the presence of El Nino. The El Nino events take place on a background of increasing temperature, and each event is a burst towards new historic highs in temperature. It is useful to look back earlier in the graph, say 1970 and earlier, to get an idea of the size of variation that can be associated with El Nino and La Nina.

Returning again to the question posed in the beginning, can we expect to regularly see such warm temperatures going forward? Yes, it makes sense that we will see more and more record high temperatures. To not expect that is to bet against the emerging observed trend of warmer and warmer temperatures that is a metric of the warming climate.

I will finish this just temperature story with a map of the Plant Hardiness Zones. Here is the official version from the US Department of Agriculture with an service that lets you pick out your zip code. I show a map of Michigan. In 1990 the green zones, 6, were down around the Ohio River in southern Ohio. This is a measure of not only warming, but also of the definitive changes in the onset of spring. The Washington Post has an excellent graphic that shows the changes between 1990 and 2012.



Figure 5: Plant hardiness zones in Michigan for 2012. From US Department of Agriculture.

We have just experienced in the U.S. a record extreme heat event. This raises the natural questions of climate, weather, and climate change. I have linked a couple of excellent discussions of these issues in the opening paragraph. What I have done in my article is to focus simply on temperature. I have laid out a thread that starts from the globe and the remarkable observation that we have not seen a month below the 20th century global average in more than 25 years. This I followed with the observation that we are in a time when we are setting more than twice as many record highs as record lows. After that I discussed the role of one of the most prominent forms of planetary temperature variations, El Nino and La Nina. The compelling point from this graph was that in the past 30 years during the cool phase, La Nina, the planet shows a warming trend. Finally, I introduce the plant hardiness zones, which show warmer winters, and can be translated to earlier springs. So the question that has been posed to me last week, can we expect such high temperatures in the future? Yes. If we use our experience and observations for the basis of decision making, then the rational answer is yes. We will see more records. We will see an earlier spring. We will see warmer times.


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Quoting Xandra: Look at the red trend line. Does it look like "no significant warming since 1925"? What I can see, the trend is upward. And there is no information about the years 2008-2011.

The trend line starts in 1798 and goes till 2008, in which case it should go upward. Now if the trend line starts in 1925 and goes till 2008 you would see no significant change.

If you think Iceland Met is lying or you do not understand something e-mail them and ask, this is what I did for some NOAA info for which I am still waiting for an answer after over 2 weeks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Pipejazz:


See Carl Sagan's "Nuclear Winter" articles for a "chilling" (pun intended) scenario that could be precipitated (another pun?) by the fight for the last of the petrochemicals.


I have seen it. I am a fan of the late Dr. Carl Sagan. His work is what got me interested in Science. One can only wonder about what he would have to say about all of the events unfolding before us now. I feel reasonably certain that he would be planning his one way trip to Mars.

My favorite books by him are, "Cosmos" and "The Demon Haunted Wold: Science as a Candle in the Dark". I wish that more people would read the latter. Instead, the Salem Witch Hunts seem to persist even today and Earth is still a flat planet that everything else in the Universe revolves around. sigh
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4768
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I do not envision that there will be anything to drive temperatures back down, in the short term. This is unless there are other major events that come into play such as an eruption of a super volcano or something else that would put a lot of sun blocking particulates into the atmosphere. These particulates would only remain in the atmosphere, depending on the event(s), for a short period of time and then the warming trend would continue. A shift in the Earth's tilt or a variation in our orbit around the Sun could also come into play. I have no reason to suspect that these are upcoming, near term events.

I can not wager an opinion of what Earth's climate will be like in another 1,000 years. My opinion of what Earth's climate will be like in 100 years is a continued warming from what we see today.


See Carl Sagan's "Nuclear Winter" articles for a "chilling" (pun intended) scenario that could be precipitated (another pun?) by the fight for the last of the petrochemicals.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nymore:
I see the arctic sea ice is in no hurry to leave but why should it temps in the northern part of Canada and Alaska have been running slightly cooler than normal to over 20 degrees below normal for a while now. Amazingly no mention here. Wonder why, that's right we only blog temps when they are above normal to prove our bias. I will check other arctic places when I have time.

Sources NWS and Environment Canada (Canada Met)


And the Antarctic Ice has been steadily increasing, but it is always hot somewhere, and that is all you'll ever hear, because in the end, the only way they can pull off the biggest ponzi scheme ever is thru propaganda.


Good COP: Hillary breathes new life into a global deal that the Chinese had been saying can’t be done

And today I’d like to announce that, in the context of a strong accord in which all major economies stand behind meaningful mitigation actions and provide full transparency as to their implementation, the United States is prepared to work with other countries toward a goal of jointly mobilizing $100 billion a year by 2020 to address the climate change needs of developing countries.


Link


Member Since: Januar 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1094
Quoting Xandra:
From New Scientist:

Arctic sea ice may have passed crucial tipping point

THE disappearance of Arctic sea ice has crossed a "tipping point" that could soon make ice-free summers a regular feature across most of the Arctic Ocean, says a British climate scientist who is setting up an early warning system for dangerous climate tipping points.

Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter has carried out a day-by-day assessment of Arctic ice-cover data collected since satellite observation began in 1979. He presented his hotly anticipated findings for the first time at the Planet Under Pressure conference in London on Monday.

Up until 2007, sea ice systematically fluctuated between extensive cover in winter and lower cover in summer. But since then, says Lenton, the difference between winter and summer ice cover has been a million square kilometres greater than it was before, as a result of unprecedented summer melting. These observations are in stark contrast to what models predict should have happened.

Despite fears of runaway sea-ice loss after summer cover hit a record low in 2007 - opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in living memory - modelling studies based on our best understanding of ice dynamics indicated the ice cover should fully recover each winter. "They suggest that even if the ice declined a large amount in one year, it should bounce back," says Walt Meier of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Instead, Lenton's research shows a permanent alteration. According to data from the past five years, the Arctic sea ice has not recovered from the 2007 extreme low. "The system has passed a tipping point," Lenton says.

What caused the change is still unclear. Lenton speculates that the exceptional low in 2007 (pictured above) might have allowed the ocean to absorb so much heat that a lot of the thicker multiyear ice, which used to persist through the summer, was melted. Alternatively, the loss of ice may have changed air circulation patterns above the Arctic in ways that have similarly "locked in" the change.

Other glaciologists would not comment before seeing the details of the analysis, which have yet to be published in a journal. But if the findings are confirmed, they say, the existing models will have to be rewritten.

Elsewhere at the conference, Euan Nisbet of Royal Holloway, University of London, offered one particularly scary consequence of Arctic warming. He warned on Tuesday that warming ocean currents east of Greenland were melting ice in the seabed. This could trigger landslides on steep submarine slopes in the area, unleashing tsunamis capable of hitting the UK, and releasing buried methane that could amplify global warming. Something similar happened off Norway 8000 years ago in a similar geological setting, Nisbet told New Scientist.





Last ice age recovery caused by AGW.


The modern human species of Homo sapien has existed on the earth for only 100,000 years.
http://facts.randomhistory.com/

I think you warmist's are onto something!
Member Since: Januar 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1094
Quoting nymore:

Have a nice day everyone.

Have a nice day you too.
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting nymore:

Iceland Met sees no significant warming since 1925.

"The temperature (figure 1) has in the long run been increasing during the last 200 years at the rate of +0.7C per century. This is similar to the general temperature increase in the whole Northern hemisphere during the same period."

"The time from 1925 onwards is dominated by a very large cycle that does not show an overall significant warming, although the temperature rise of the last 20 years is considerable."

Look at the red trend line. Does it look like "no significant warming since 1925"? What I can see, the trend is upward. And there is no information about the years 2008-2011.


Figure 1. Annual temperature in Stykkishólmur 1798 to 2007. Note that the values prior to 1845 are interpolated from observations at other stations. The confidence is very low for the years before 1830 and the values are preliminary and should not be referenced. Work on quality improvement is ongoing. A few warm and cold years are highlighted.
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting nymore:


Any reason the material on Stykkishólmur isn't linked?
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting nymore:
I see the arctic sea ice is in no hurry to leave but why should it temps in the northern part of Canada and Alaska have been running slightly cooler than normal to over 20 degrees below normal for a while now. Amazingly no mention here. Wonder why, that's right we only blog temps when they are above normal to prove our bias. I will check other arctic places when I have time.

Sources NWS and Environment Canada (Canada Met)

Yep. Even with AGW, water still freezes when it gets too cold.

Talk to me in late August and early September. ;)
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting overwash12:
Somehow or another ,I don't think AGW will be our biggest problem!

Over what time frame?
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Iceland Met sees no significant warming since 1925.


"Icelandic Meteorological office Navigation. Past temperature conditions in Iceland from 1798 to 2007 Temperature in Stykkish%uFFFDlmur (Western Iceland) The temperature (figure 1) has in the long run been increasing during the last 200 years at the rate of 0.7%uFFFDC per century. This is similar to the general temperature increase in the whole Northern hemisphere during the same period. The warming has been very uneven, dominated by three cold periods and two warm ones. Annual temperature in Stykkish%uFFFDlmur 1798 to 2007 Stykkish%uFFFDlmshiti Figure 1. Annual temperature in Stykkish%uFFFDlmur 1798 to 2007. Note that the values prior to 1845 are interpolated from observations at other stations. The confidence is very low for the years before 1830 and the values are preliminary and should not be referenced. Work on quality improvement is ongoing. A few warm and cold years are highlighted. The time from 1925 onwards is dominated by a very large cycle that does not show an overall significant warming, although the temperature rise of the last 20 years is considerable. There is also a large decedal variability before 1925. The year 1892 marked the end of a period dominated by a very large year-to-year variability and the end of a long run of very cold years. There was a relatively warm period during 1837 to 1858, and by overlooking the very cold year of 1835 and a few isolated cold months one can identify the interval 1813 to 1858 as a generally warm one. The years 1807 to 1812 were very cold. Although the following warm period was considerably colder than the corresponding 20th century warm period it was noted as a generally favourable time for agriculture and the population of the country increased markedly. The 20th century warm period that started in the 1920s ended very abruptly in 1965. It can be divided into three sub-periods, a very warm one to 1942, a colder interval during 1943 to 1952, but it was decisively warm during 1953 to 1964. The cold period 1965 to 1995 also included a few sub-periods. The so called "sea ice years" 1965 to 1971, a slighly warmer period 1972 til 1978, a very cold interval during 1979 to 1986, but therafter it became gradually warmer, the last cold year in the sequence being 1995. Since then it has been warm, the warmth culminating in 2002 to 2003. Generally the decription above refers to the whole country, but there are slightly diverging details, depending on the source of the cold air. Back to top">

Here is the graph (fig 1)



How would NOAA and NASA find significant warming when Iceland Met does not.

Have a nice day everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the arctic sea ice is in no hurry to leave but why should it temps in the northern part of Canada and Alaska have been running slightly cooler than normal to over 20 degrees below normal for a while now. Amazingly no mention here. Wonder why, that's right we only blog temps when they are above normal to prove our bias. I will check other arctic places when I have time.

Sources NWS and Environment Canada (Canada Met)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting overwash12:
Somehow or another ,I don't think AGW will be our biggest problem!


Enlighten me. What gets your vote?

I'm very interested in whatever it is that could beat several meters of sea level rise with many trillions of dollars of infrastructure lost (not to even mention the millions of folks who will lose most or all of their real estate wealth and their places of residence and support), vast new areas suffering from desertification, mass starvation, mass migration, and the resulting warfare.

And, yes, I realize I've only scratched the surface of the many nasties sneaking up on us because of climate change.

Unless you have info on an incoming asteroid of considerable size, surprise me. What gets your vote?
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Quoting Birthmark:

If we could somehow train them to do that over potholes, then I think everybody wins!
Somehow or another ,I don't think AGW will be our biggest problem!
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am not so certain that this would be the case. There is ample evidence that they keep throwing themselves under the bus. ;-)

If we could somehow train them to do that over potholes, then I think everybody wins!
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting Birthmark:


Yeah, the denialists will do that. Sometimes I think that they live for the opportunity to misrepresent science.

Meh, I guess it keeps 'em off the streets.


I am not so certain that this would be the case. There is ample evidence that they keep throwing themselves under the bus. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4768
Quoting Xandra:
Syracuse University scientist seeks to set the record straight on climate research - Recent media reports misrepresent his research

Article by: Judy Holmes

Recently published climate research by Zunli Lu, a geochemist in the Department of Earth Sciences in Syracuse University’s College of Arts and Sciences, has gone viral across the Internet by bloggers. A number of media outlets, including the Daily Mail and The Register, which are published in the United Kingdom, claim this research supports arguments that human-induced global warming is a myth. The claims, Lu says, misrepresent his work and the conclusions in the study. The statement below is an effort to set the record straight. The original news story about the research is posted on Arts and Sciences News.

Zunli Lu:
"It is unfortunate that my research, "An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula," recently published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, has been misrepresented by a number of media outlets.

Several of these media articles assert that our study claims the entire Earth heated up during medieval times without human CO2 emissions. We clearly state in our paper that we studied one site at the Antarctic Peninsula. The results should not be extrapolated to make assumptions about climate conditions across the entire globe. Other statements, such as the study "throws doubt on orthodoxies around global warming," completely misrepresent our conclusions. Our study does not question the well-established anthropogenic warming trend."


Yeah, the denialists will do that. Sometimes I think that they live for the opportunity to misrepresent science.

Meh, I guess it keeps 'em off the streets.
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting NeapolitanFan:
Where's the warming?

Link


I found it!



Please don't hesitate to let me know the moment these start going down. Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
PBS has a new topic on NewsHour Coping with Climate Change. Have any of you seen this? And what do you think of the segments?


Haven't seen it. But then, I don't really watch TV very often.

Quoting percylives:

New IPCC report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation released on 3/28/12.


Thanks for that, percy. Bookmarked for later consumption.
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Syracuse University scientist seeks to set the record straight on climate research - Recent media reports misrepresent his research

Article by: Judy Holmes

Recently published climate research by Zunli Lu, a geochemist in the Department of Earth Sciences in Syracuse University’s College of Arts and Sciences, has gone viral across the Internet by bloggers. A number of media outlets, including the Daily Mail and The Register, which are published in the United Kingdom, claim this research supports arguments that human-induced global warming is a myth. The claims, Lu says, misrepresent his work and the conclusions in the study. The statement below is an effort to set the record straight. The original news story about the research is posted on Arts and Sciences News.

Zunli Lu:
"It is unfortunate that my research, "An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula," recently published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, has been misrepresented by a number of media outlets.

Several of these media articles assert that our study claims the entire Earth heated up during medieval times without human CO2 emissions. We clearly state in our paper that we studied one site at the Antarctic Peninsula. The results should not be extrapolated to make assumptions about climate conditions across the entire globe. Other statements, such as the study "throws doubt on orthodoxies around global warming," completely misrepresent our conclusions. Our study does not question the well-established anthropogenic warming trend."
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Quoting NeapolitanFan:
Where's the warming?

Link
Pretty much everywhere you look...so long as you remove those thick ideological blinders.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Where's the warming?

Link
Member Since: Dezember 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
New IPCC report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation released on 3/28/12.

It can be downloaded from a link here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
PBS has a new topic on NewsHour Coping with Climate Change. Have any of you seen this? And what do you think of the segments?


I have not seen this yet. Thank you for bringing it to our attention.

This is where we are now. Learn how to cope, if we can.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4768
PBS has a new topic on NewsHour Coping with Climate Change. Have any of you seen this? And what do you think of the segments?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From New Scientist:

Arctic sea ice may have passed crucial tipping point

THE disappearance of Arctic sea ice has crossed a "tipping point" that could soon make ice-free summers a regular feature across most of the Arctic Ocean, says a British climate scientist who is setting up an early warning system for dangerous climate tipping points.

Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter has carried out a day-by-day assessment of Arctic ice-cover data collected since satellite observation began in 1979. He presented his hotly anticipated findings for the first time at the Planet Under Pressure conference in London on Monday.

Up until 2007, sea ice systematically fluctuated between extensive cover in winter and lower cover in summer. But since then, says Lenton, the difference between winter and summer ice cover has been a million square kilometres greater than it was before, as a result of unprecedented summer melting. These observations are in stark contrast to what models predict should have happened.

Despite fears of runaway sea-ice loss after summer cover hit a record low in 2007 - opening the Northwest Passage for the first time in living memory - modelling studies based on our best understanding of ice dynamics indicated the ice cover should fully recover each winter. "They suggest that even if the ice declined a large amount in one year, it should bounce back," says Walt Meier of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Instead, Lenton's research shows a permanent alteration. According to data from the past five years, the Arctic sea ice has not recovered from the 2007 extreme low. "The system has passed a tipping point," Lenton says.

What caused the change is still unclear. Lenton speculates that the exceptional low in 2007 (pictured above) might have allowed the ocean to absorb so much heat that a lot of the thicker multiyear ice, which used to persist through the summer, was melted. Alternatively, the loss of ice may have changed air circulation patterns above the Arctic in ways that have similarly "locked in" the change.

Other glaciologists would not comment before seeing the details of the analysis, which have yet to be published in a journal. But if the findings are confirmed, they say, the existing models will have to be rewritten.

Elsewhere at the conference, Euan Nisbet of Royal Holloway, University of London, offered one particularly scary consequence of Arctic warming. He warned on Tuesday that warming ocean currents east of Greenland were melting ice in the seabed. This could trigger landslides on steep submarine slopes in the area, unleashing tsunamis capable of hitting the UK, and releasing buried methane that could amplify global warming. Something similar happened off Norway 8000 years ago in a similar geological setting, Nisbet told New Scientist.


Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Climate change accelerated in 2001-2010: WMO

"The global temperature increase rate has been "remarkable" during the previous four decades, according to the preliminary summary. The global temperature has increased since 1971 at an average estimated rate of 0.166C per decade compared to the average rate of 0.06C per decade computed over the full period 1881-2010."





NOAA: 2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record

NASA Research Finds 2010 Tied for Warmest Year on Record

Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
Dr. Gray,

Please be advised that science is not decided by debate. (SEE: Evolution) You might want to incorporate this (apparently new to you) knowledge into your thinking skill set.

Yer pal,

Birthmark



Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting iceagecoming:
On The Hijacking of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
by Bill Gray
Professor Emeritus
Colorado State University
(AMS Fellow, Charney Award recipient, and over 50-year member)
June 2011




Obtaining a Balanced View on AGW. To understand what is really occurring with regards to the AGW question one must now bypass the AMS, the mainstream media, and the mainline scientific journals. They have mostly been preconditioned to accept the AGW hypothesis and, in general, frown on anyone not agreeing that AGW is, next to nuclear war, our society%u2019s most serious long range problem.
To obtain any kind of a balanced back-and-forth discussion on AGW one has to consult the many web blogs that are both advocates and skeptics of AGW. These blogs are the only source for real open debate on the validity of the AGW hypothesis. Here is where the real science of the AGW question is taking place. Over the last few years the weight of evidence, as presented in these many blog discussions, is beginning to swing against the AGW hypothesis. As the globe fails to warm as the GCMs have predicted the American public is gradually losing its belief in the prior claims of Gore, Hansen, and the other many AGW advocates.


I had hoped some here had the interest of discovery
and exchange of ideas as the vanguard to climate science, but sad to say it is mostly sound bites.




"It is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring."


Carl Sagan
A) For a guy who is so smart about tropical weather, Gray sure does bring on the stupid when it comes to AGW. He's deluded himself into believing that blog comment sections are where the real science is taking place, while actual scientists are all in on the Big Scam? Poor fella...

B) It's a bit disingenuous to use a Carl Sagan quote to corroborate a denialist perspective, as the man was a firm supporter of AGWT as it was known at the time of his death. Just saying...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
On The Hijacking of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
by Bill Gray
Professor Emeritus
Colorado State University
(AMS Fellow, Charney Award recipient, and over 50-year member)
June 2011




Obtaining a Balanced View on AGW. To understand what is really occurring with regards to the AGW question one must now bypass the AMS, the mainstream media, and the mainline scientific journals. They have mostly been preconditioned to accept the AGW hypothesis and, in general, frown on anyone not agreeing that AGW is, next to nuclear war, our society’s most serious long range problem.
To obtain any kind of a balanced back-and-forth discussion on AGW one has to consult the many web blogs that are both advocates and skeptics of AGW. These blogs are the only source for real open debate on the validity of the AGW hypothesis. Here is where the real science of the AGW question is taking place. Over the last few years the weight of evidence, as presented in these many blog discussions, is beginning to swing against the AGW hypothesis. As the globe fails to warm as the GCMs have predicted the American public is gradually losing its belief in the prior claims of Gore, Hansen, and the other many AGW advocates.


I had hoped some here had the interest of discovery
and exchange of ideas as the vanguard to climate science, but sad to say it is mostly sound bites.




"It is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring."


Carl Sagan
Member Since: Januar 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1094
Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:


That's a good one, they should add a picture of puppetmaster Warren Buffett's BNSF railroad running under the incomplete Keystone XL pipeline headed to the ports with the oil to be shipped to China.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-puppetmaster- warren-buffett-biggest-winner-keystone-pipeline-re jection

Buffett is now Obama's puppet-master? What, has Soros got the day off...again?
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting iceagecoming:


Here are a few that agree with Paul Hudson;
I suppose they don't count either:

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical...The main basis of the claim that man’s release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system.” - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”



Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” - UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.



“The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists.” - Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.



“So far, real measurements give no ground for concern about a catastrophic future warming.” - Scientist Dr. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, a chemical engineer at Abo Akademi University in Finland, author of 200 scientific publications and former Greenpeace member.



“Anyone who claims that the debate is over and the conclusions are firm has a fundamentally unscientific approach to one of the most momentous issues of our time.” - Solar physicist Dr. Pal Brekke, senior advisor to the Norwegian Space Centre in Oslo. Brekke has published more than 40 peer-reviewed scientific articles on the sun and solar interaction with the Earth.

“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity.” - Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico
“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” - U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA.

“Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will.” – . Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ.


“After reading [UN IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet.” - Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review.


“The Kyoto theorists have put the cart before the horse. It is global warming that triggers higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, not the other way round…A large number of critical documents submitted at the 1995 U.N. conference in Madrid vanished without a trace. As a result, the discussion was one-sided and heavily biased, and the U.N. declared global warming to be a scientific fact,” Andrei Kapitsa, a Russian geographer and Antarctic ice core researcher.


“I am convinced that the current alarm over carbon dioxide is mistaken...Fears about man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science.” - Award Winning Physicist Dr. Will Happer, Professor at the Department of Physics at Princeton University and Former Director of Energy Research at the Department of Energy, who has published over 200 scientific papers, and is a fellow of the American Physical Society, The American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the National Academy of Sciences.



“Nature's regulatory instrument is water vapor: more carbon dioxide leads to less moisture in the air, keeping the overall GHG content in accord with the necessary balance conditions.” – Prominent Hungarian Physicist and environmental researcher Dr. Miklós Zágoni reversed his view of man-made warming and is now a skeptic. Zágoni was once Hungary’s most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol.


“For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" - Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.


“Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp…Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.” - Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee.

Thank for posting this rather long list of people who are wrong. It was most entertaining to see the number of ways that presumably intelligent people can be wrong.

As for your "facts", I'll say this. A mediocre man once said, "Irrelevant facts are...well, irrelevant." That mediocre man was me. (I said a lot of other stuff, too. But we'll get to that later.) :)
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting overwash12:
I say you would be throwing money into the wind! I know a guy down the road from me planted about 40 palm trees along his long country driveway a few years back. Guess they were not of the cold hardy variety,he lost a few last year when the temp got to about 13 degrees f. I live in Northeast,N.C.


I don't know about the palms but unless we get a real cold snap, I'm going to get a lot of figs this year. The bushes are already leafing out and many have the early fig batch on them.
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Quoting overwash12:
We know the Earth was much warmer at one time(at least some of us) . WE know the Earth was much colder at one time. This all happened how? Are we not subject to the same set of physics and astronomical cycles as in the past?

Ah, I see. You think that climatologists think that CO2 is the *only* thing that affects climate. Happily, I can report to you that that is not the case.
Member Since: Oktober 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Big failures, small successes mark Obama's environmental record

As presidential candidate Barack Obama ran on a bold green agenda. He vowed to reverse the climate change policy of his predecessor and push for green jobs. But one year before the election the results are mixed at best.
Barack Obama in Copenhagen

The Copenhagen conference scuppered Obama's plans

"Few challenges facing America - and the world - are more urgent than combating climate change," President-elect Obama declared in California two weeks after the 2008 vote. And he promised: "My presidency will mark a new chapter in America's leadership on climate change that will strengthen our security and create millions of new jobs."

And there was no shortage of events and incidents to help galvanize support for this ambitious environmental platform.

In his first year in office, with a Democrat-controlled Congress and just two months after being honored with the Nobel Peace Price, President Obama, armed with the latest research outlining the dire consequences of climate change, attended what was arguably the most high stakes environmental policy drama ever staged: the Copenhagen Climate Conference.

Copenhagen collapse

The result was the biggest reality check for anyone who believed Barack Obama could indeed restore American leadership on climate issues. The Copenhagen conference couldn't agree on a comprehensive global climate regime and is widely regarded as the final nail in the coffin of serious international climate legislation. That was in December 2009.

Four months later and much closer to home, the biggest oil spill in history wreaked havoc on the marine environment in the Gulf of Mexico. But after a government-mandated moratorium on drilling that ended a year ago, it has been basically back to business as usual for the petroleum industry in the Gulf and elsewhere.

In year three of the Obama administration, the biggest nuclear accident since the Chernobyl catastrophe of 1986 shocked Japan and the world. The string of nuclear meltdowns in Fukushima caused a global debate about the safety of nuclear energy and led to Japan ditching plans to step up its use of nuclear power and Germany to phase out nuclear power entirely.

Smoke rises from Fukushima plant

The Fukushima accident didn't alter US nuclear policy

Meanwhile in the US, utility giant Southern Company is on track to get permission to build two new nuclear reactors at its plant in Georgia. According to media reports, the company had already received the green light for limited construction in August and hopes to get final permission at the end of the year.

End of a green presidency

So why with a Democratic majority during his first year in office and two cataclysmic environmental disasters has Obama not delivered on his promise to become the first green president?

Two reasons, say experts.

First, because of a general resistance to comprehensive climate legislation in Congress that cuts across party lines which made it hard for Obama to even convince all his fellow Democrats. Second, because Obama simply had other priorities like health care and financial reform.

"He just didn't put enough of his political capital behind it," Sascha Müller-Kraenner, European representative of The Nature Conservancy, a major international environmental organization based in Arlington, Virginia, told Deutsche Welle.

After Obama's signature green bill foundered in Congress, the president wasn't itching for more eco fights that he felt he was unlikely to win.

"A lot of mainstream politicians including I must say the president seem to have drawn the conclusion from the failed climate legislation that there is nothing to gain by promoting environmental causes in the US," notes Müller-Kraenner.

Lacking leadership

That might help explain the lackluster reaction of the White House after the Fukushima accident in Japan and the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf.

A president who campaigned to win back America's lost position as the globe's environmental leader could have seized these moments. He could have promoted bold measures in the wake of these disasters to prevent similar accidents in the US in the future and usher in a greener US energy policy.

Instead, even after Fukushima Obama continues to support nuclear energy.

As for the Deepwater Horizon spill, in the eyes of many experts the Obama administration botched its response to the largest environmental disaster in US history, leaving the crisis management and communication essentially up to BP executives.

Deepwater Horizon platform on fire

The Obama administration bungled its response to the biggest oil spill in history

The president was eventually forced to apologize for the government's bungled actions and later issued a limited drilling moratorium which was quickly overturned in court.

Alexander Ochs, director of the climate and energy program at the Worldwatch Institute in Washington, isn't all that surprised about Obama's reactions to the Fukushima and Deepwater Horizon accidents. He notes that Obama upon becoming president considered nuclear energy a clean technology and it doesn't seem Fukushima changed his stance.

Energy security vs. environment

What's more, says Ochs, energy security for most key players in the US simply trumps environmental protection. By continuing or even expanding domestic drilling for oil, those players hope to decrease US dependency on imported oil, which in the long run is impossible because of decreasing reserves.

And yet, despite many shortcomings, it wouldn't be fair to label Obama as an abject failure on the environment. While it wasn't hard to beat the environmental record set by his predecessor, Obama does deserve credit for some important green initiatives, argue the experts.

As part of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the Obama administration has made available investments in renewable energy projects totaling $90 billion (65 billion euros), explains Ochs. He adds that the so-called Cafe standard, i.e. the fuel standard for cars and light trucks, has been raised substantially. And the way in which federal agencies analyze environmental impact of green house gas emissions has also been improved.

While these efforts sound mundane compared to a sweeping international climate mandate they are important and do produce clear environmental change, says Ochs.

Framing the debate

Still, looking ahead at the presidential election campaign the analysts worry that the environment could once again only surface as a drag on an already sluggish economy.

"So far energy is again being viewed from a very conservative lens and the environmental perspective is still missing, also from Mr. Obama's platform," says Müller-Kraenner.

"Environmental protection could indeed play a role in the election to the extent that it can be cast by Republicans as a job killer," says Ochs. "If Republicans are successful in framing it this way it can become quite a liability for Obama and Congress Democrats."

President-elect Obama's promise in California to restore America’s leadership position in climate change these days sounds like it comes from a different era. And yet it is only three years old.

Author: Michael Knigge

Editor: Rob Mudge


Link



Liberty is a boisterous sea. Timid men prefer the calm of despotism." -Thomas Jefferson
Member Since: Januar 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1094
Member Since: Januar 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1094
BREAKING: Obama Administration To Establish Strong Carbon Pollution Limits For New Power Plants
By Brad Johnson on Mar 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm


In one of the most significant reversals of Bush-era policy, the Obama administration plans tomorrow to issue greenhouse pollution limits for new power plants, a major step in the fight against global warming. The new rule — which will go into effect in 2013 — confirms the end of the era of dirty coal-fired power plants:
The proposed rule — years in the making and approved by the White House after months of review — will require any new power plant to emit no more than 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt of electricity produced. The average U.S. natural gas plant, which emits between 800 and 850 pounds of CO2 per megawatt, meets that standard; coal plants emit an average of 1,768 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt.
Since the late 1990s, “natural gas has been the fuel of choice for the majority of new generating units,” and in the 2000s, wind power generation also grew significantly. With the high cost of its toxic pollution from mine to plant, coal has been losing out to cleaner sources of fuel in the electric utility sector. Although few new coal plants have been built in the last twenty years, aging plants — some built in the 1930s — still produce about 40 percent of U.S. electricity, and about 80 percent of carbon pollution from the power sector.
In March 2001, newly elected President George W. Bush reversed a campaign pledge to limit greenhouse pollution from power plants, the source of 40 percent of United States global warming pollution. In 2008, Bush White House officials refused to open an email sent by its own Environmental Protection Agency which called for action against man-made climate change.
“This is the third major executive action launched by the Obama administration to reduce carbon pollution,” writes Center for American Progress senior fellow Daniel Weiss. “With growing evidence that the serious impacts of climate change are already here, President Obama deserves credit for this new standard. We must urgently adopt and implement these new pollution reduction standards for power plants.”
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting overwash12:
I say you would be throwing money into the wind! I know a guy down the road from me planted about 40 palm trees along his long country driveway a few years back. Guess they were not of the cold hardy variety,he lost a few last year when the temp got to about 13 degrees f. I live in Northeast,N.C.


A man slightly ahead of his time?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4768
Quoting percylives:


Yes, it's happening and it is time to start thinking seriously about rolling with this particular condition.

I have planted about 70 fig trees here in central VA and am considering year-around citrus. If I lived in your neighborhood, I'd already be looking at orange trees in my yard.

Who will grow the first avocado in the new Virginia?
I say you would be throwing money into the wind! I know a guy down the road from me planted about 40 palm trees along his long country driveway a few years back. Guess they were not of the cold hardy variety,he lost a few last year when the temp got to about 13 degrees f. I live in Northeast,N.C.
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Quoting Balwanz:
Here, in Richmond VA, not long ago we experienced 5 degree winter lows. Now our winter lows are slightly above 15. This places us in a climate zone of Georgia and Northern Florida.

Pine bark beetles are devastating out local Virginia black pines, which seem likely to be replaced by more Southern, beetle-resistant loblollies. This new climate zone however, in Georgia and Florida, features palms rather than pines. Particularly apparent are vast areas of low-growing screw palms.

Could this be actually happening?


Yes, it's happening and it is time to start thinking seriously about rolling with this particular condition.

I have planted about 70 fig trees here in central VA and am considering year-around citrus. If I lived in your neighborhood, I'd already be looking at orange trees in my yard.

Who will grow the first avocado in the new Virginia?
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Quoting Birthmark:
It will be interesting to see what happens with the next strong El Niño and temperature.


The next strong El Nino may only be "interesting" from a distance. Living it may not be as pleasant.

Make sure your AC is fully charged and your stand-by generator is fueled up before it arrives.
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A bit of enlightened reading.

The answer to this particular problem? Maybe.
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Extreme Weather of Last Decade Part of Larger Pattern Linked to Global Warming.

ScienceDaily.com Link

I don't brake for trolls !
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From Scientific American this afternoon, this bit of happy news:

Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible

"The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.

Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably.

As emissions grow, scientists say the world is close to reaching thresholds beyond which the effects on the global climate will be irreversible, such as the melting of polar ice sheets and loss of rainforests.

"This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines," said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London.

Despite this sense of urgency, a new global climate treaty forcing the world's biggest polluters, such as the United States and China, to curb emissions will only be agreed on by 2015 - to enter into force in 2020.

"We are on the cusp of some big changes," said Steffen. "We can ... cap temperature rise at two degrees, or cross the threshold beyond which the system shifts to a much hotter state."

TIPPING POINTS

For ice sheets - huge refrigerators that slow down the warming of the planet - the tipping point has probably already been passed, Steffen said. The West Antarctic ice sheet has shrunk over the last decade and the Greenland ice sheet has lost around 200 cubic km (48 cubic miles) a year since the 1990s.

Most climate estimates agree the Amazon rainforest will get drier as the planet warms. Mass tree deaths caused by drought have raised fears it is on the verge of a tipping point, when it will stop absorbing emissions and add to them instead.

Around 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon were lost in 2005 from the rainforest and 2.2 billion tonnes in 2010, which has undone about 10 years of carbon sink activity, Steffen said.

One of the most worrying and unknown thresholds is the Siberian permafrost, which stores frozen carbon in the soil away from the atmosphere.

"There is about 1,600 billion tonnes of carbon there - about twice the amount in the atmosphere today - and the northern high latitudes are experiencing the most severe temperature change of any part of the planet," he said.

In a worst case scenario, 30 to 63 billion tonnes of carbon a year could be released by 2040, rising to 232 to 380 billion tonnes by 2100. This compares to around 10 billion tonnes of CO2 released by fossil fuel use each year.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere has also turned oceans more acidic as they absorb it. In the past 200 years, ocean acidification has happened at a speed not seen for around 60 million years, said Carol Turley at Plymouth Marine Laboratory.

This threatens coral reef development and could lead to the extinction of some species within decades, as well as to an increase in the number of predators.

As leading scientists, policy-makers and environment groups gathered at the "Planet Under Pressure" conference in London, opinions differed on what action to take this decade.

London School of Economics professor Anthony Giddens favors focusing on the fossil fuel industry, seeing as renewables only make up 1 percent of the global energy mix.

"We have enormous inertia within the world economy and should make much more effort to close down coal-fired power stations," he said.

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell favours working on technologies leading to negative emissions in the long run, like carbon capture on biomass and in land use, said Jeremy Bentham, the firm's vice president of global business environment.

The conference runs through Thursday."
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Recovery...........LOL!
Member Since: Januar 2, 2006 Posts: 127 Comments: 20459
..the Global's cooling's should begin any day now.
Member Since: Juli 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
Quoting iceagecoming:


Here are a few that agree with Paul Hudson;
I suppose they don't count either:

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical...The main basis of the claim that man’s release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system.” - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”



Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” - UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.



“The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists.” - Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.



“So far, real measurements give no ground for concern about a catastrophic future warming.” - Scientist Dr. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, a chemical engineer at Abo Akademi University in Finland, author of 200 scientific publications and former Greenpeace member.



“Anyone who claims that the debate is over and the conclusions are firm has a fundamentally unscientific approach to one of the most momentous issues of our time.” - Solar physicist Dr. Pal Brekke, senior advisor to the Norwegian Space Centre in Oslo. Brekke has published more than 40 peer-reviewed scientific articles on the sun and solar interaction with the Earth.

“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity.” - Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico
“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” - U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA.

“Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will.” – . Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ.


“After reading [UN IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet.” - Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review.


“The Kyoto theorists have put the cart before the horse. It is global warming that triggers higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, not the other way round…A large number of critical documents submitted at the 1995 U.N. conference in Madrid vanished without a trace. As a result, the discussion was one-sided and heavily biased, and the U.N. declared global warming to be a scientific fact,” Andrei Kapitsa, a Russian geographer and Antarctic ice core researcher.


“I am convinced that the current alarm over carbon dioxide is mistaken...Fears about man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science.” - Award Winning Physicist Dr. Will Happer, Professor at the Department of Physics at Princeton University and Former Director of Energy Research at the Department of Energy, who has published over 200 scientific papers, and is a fellow of the American Physical Society, The American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the National Academy of Sciences.



“Nature's regulatory instrument is water vapor: more carbon dioxide leads to less moisture in the air, keeping the overall GHG content in accord with the necessary balance conditions.” – Prominent Hungarian Physicist and environmental researcher Dr. Miklós Zágoni reversed his view of man-made warming and is now a skeptic. Zágoni was once Hungary’s most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol.


“For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" - Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.


“Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp…Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.” - Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee.



Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
Aldous Huxley




Armenia – Zvartnots and Shirak international airports are closed due to heavy snowfall.[4]
Azerbaijan – On 8 February, temperatures in Baku dropped to −14 °C (7 °F), breaking a 42-year-old record.[5] Baku international airport also suffered a serious problems and had to cancel some flights.
Belarus – Early in the day on 30 January, subzero temperatures spread rapidly, data accessed by AccuWeather showed.[6] According to meteoinfo.by, on the night of 11 through 12 February, temperatures in the Brahin Raion dropped to −34.3 °C (−29.7 °F). According to National Agency BielTA, from 1 January, more than 180 people died in domestic fires. Total number of casualties remain unknown.[7]
Bulgaria – Nearly 150 cm (4.9 ft) of snow has fallen, with one man dying of hypothermia as his car was covered in snow.[8] Meteoalarm issued snow warnings for western Bulgaria, wind warnings for central parts and rain warnings for eastern areas of the country.[9] Temperatures have been consistently under −10 °C (14 °F) for more than a week with a low reading of −30 °C (−22 °F) on two different occasions in Knezha. The wall of the Ivanovo dam in southern Haskovo Province broke, flooding the village of Biser and killing 11 people in addition to inflicting serious infrastructure damage. At least 16 other deaths have been reported throughout the country due to frostbite or exhaustion.
Croatia – As of 6 February, 3 people died,[10] with concerns of many villages being cut off, especially near Vrgorac.
Cyprus – On the 29 February, snow was reported as falling in the capital, Nicosia.
France – On the 6 February, BBC News reported 4 deaths, and 43 regions in France on high alert for 'exceptional' weather conditions. On 11 February, the Six Nations Championship game between France and Ireland, was postponed shortly before kick-off, due to the pitch freezing, as temperatures plummeted beneath −10 °C (14 °F).

Piazza del Popolo, Rome under the snowfall

Italy – Rome experienced a rare intense snowfall, and many of Venice's canals have frozen over, the heavy snowfall occurred also in the Apennines.[11] On 6 February, the Italian rail network may face legal action, due to many passengers being stranded on trains over the weekend. Temperatures plummeted to −21 °C (−6 °F) on 7 February, in the north of the country. At least 54 people have died [12]
Georgia – On the 7 February Georgian press reported that the country was experiencing the coldest winter in nearly 50 years, with important water bodies, such as Mtkvari and Tbilisi sea freezing over.[13]

Tisza River near Szeged, Hungary

Greece – Many homeless people froze to death and a dam on the Evros river burst due to pressure. Temperatures also plummered to −25 °C (−13 °F) in the northwest city of Florina.
Latvia – The lowest temperature was recorded at the Strenči meteorological station, hitting −34.2 °C (−29.6 °F) on 5 February.[14] For several days not a single meteorological station reported a temperature above −20 °C (−4 °F). Because of the severe cold wave, some regions in Latvia experienced a shortage of power supply,[14] an increased number of domestic fires were reported.
Malta – The lowest temperature at grass level was measured at Zebbug. The temperature was that of −2.4 °C (27.7 °F). It was measured on Wednesday. 8 February.
Netherlands – A cold wave was registered in the Netherlands, with a low of −18.9 °C (−2.0 °F) in De Bilt, the lowest recorded since 1956,[15] and a national low of −22.8 °C (−9.0 °F) in Lelystad, the lowest temperature recorded all over the Netherlands since 1985.[16] A homeless man was frozen to death on February 2.[17] People have been ice-skating on the canals of Amsterdam.
Poland – Early in the day on 30 January, subzero cold spread widely over Belarus, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and eastern Poland, data accessed by AccuWeather.com showed.[6] From the January 1st 2012, 103 people froze to death. Fire and Rescue Service reported 360 domestic fires during one night (Feb 11 - Feb 12), and almost 12000 fire accidents this year. Reports state 107 people died in flames with 550 more suffer various degrees of burns. Due to carbon monoxide poisoning 24 people died.[18]

Winter of 2012 in south of Bucharest, Romania

Romania – At least 86 people have died.[19] In some areas, the bitter cold followed heavy falls of snow, among them the late-week dump of 5 m (16 ft)[6] On the 11 February, the Danube was reportedly completely frozen over.

Winter in Volgograd Oblast, Russia

Russia – European Russia experienced widespread subzero cold.[6] The Ministry of Health and Social Development stated on 13 February that the cold had killed 215 people since 1 January.[20]
Serbia – Sjenica set −32 °C (−26 °F), early on the morning of 9 February. In Serbia at least 50,000 villagers have been trapped by heavy snow and blizzards in mountainous areas.[21] Gas supplies are running low.[22] On the 8 February, electricity consumption broke a record, standing at 162.67 million kWh, so the government mandated a shutdown of all non-essential industries and decorative lightning.[23] The death toll has risen to 20.[22]
Spain – Palma, Majorca registered the most important snow episode[clarification needed] since 1956.[24]

Catalonia – Heavy snowfall and winds of 175 km/h (109 mph) were reported in Portbou as temperatures dropped to −23 °C (−9 °F).

Turkey – On the 31 January, heavy snow blanketed Istanbul, covering the Blue Mosque. 102 flights were cancelled at Ataturk International Airport. Nearly 140,000 people made homeless by the 2011 Van earthquake, were reported as struggling to cope with temperatures of −4 °C (25 °F) and over 30 centimetres of snow.
Ukraine – More than 100 homeless people have died as temperatures dropped as low as −35 °C (−31 °F).[21] Gas supplies are running low.[11] The cold led to more than 600 people being treated for frostbite and hypothermia within three days, according to officials. Nearly 24,000 people sought shelter during the same three days, the BBC reported. In western Ukraine, Rivne and Ivano-Frankivsk dipped to −28 °C (−18 °F).[6] Ukrainian health officials stated (on February 16) 151 people had died because of the cold,[25] with alcohol regularly a contributing factor,[25] the highest number in Europe.[2]
United Kingdom – The Met Office issued a severe weather warning as heavy snow fell across much of the country on 4 February, disrupting roads and flights.[26] Temperatures fell to −11.8 °C (10.8 °F) in the early hours of February 8.[27] More heavy snow fell overnight in England on 9–10 February. On the night of 10–11 February, the temperature in England[specify] fell to −15.6 °C (3.9 °F), the coldest temperatures since Boxing Day in 2010.[28]

[edit] Africa
Winter in Algeria

Algeria – The north of the country awoke to a blanket of snow. The average temperature at this particular time of year being 9 °C (48 °F).
Libya – On the 6 February snow fell down in Tripoli which is a very rare even
So let's take an inventory:

--82-year-old non-practicining physicist (Ivar Giaever)

--86-year-old (now deceased) Atmospheric scientist (Dr. Joanne Simpson)

--Chemist, with no papers published in the field of climate science(Dr. Kiminori Itoh)

--Geologist (Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia)

--Chemical engineer (Dr. Jarl R. Ahlbeck)

--Physicist (Dr. Pal Brekke)

--Physicist who predicted the world would be in an ice age by now (Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera)

--Atmospheric scientist (Stanley B. Goldenberg)

--Statistician and Heartland Institute speaker (Dr. William M. Briggs)

--80-year-old non-practicing geographer (Andrei Kapitsa)

--Physicist and arch-conservative (Dr. Will Happer)

--Physicist and Heartland Institute speaker (Dr. Miklós Zágoni)

--Geologist (Dr. David Gee)

--Meteorologist (Hajo Smit)

Now, since we're counting on experts, you've listed exactly two climate scientists. Of those, one has been dead for a couple of years, and at any rate hadn't practiced nor published in decades. So that leaves one: Stanley b. Goldenberg. Goldenberg is also a Heartland Institute speaker.

Thus, the lengthy list of "experts" you provided includes exactly one "credible" person, a denialist-trained, fossil fuel-funded meteorologist.

Color me shocked. ;-)

--You've followed with, again, more snippets from the Europe/West Asia cold snap of winter 2012. That's fine, I suppose, but did you know that during any one day of this month's North American heat wave that more high records were broken than cold records over the duration of that cold snap? And did you also know that Europe had a very warm winter overall?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13743
Quoting iceagecoming:


"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored."

The "Reader's Digest" version of your post. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4768
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's a great quote you use from Colson, as it fits Hudson perfectly: yet another TV meteorologist convinced that his knowledge of weather translates into expertise on climate.


Here are a few that agree with Paul Hudson;
I suppose they don't count either:

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical...The main basis of the claim that man’s release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system.” - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”



Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” - UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.



“The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists.” - Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.



“So far, real measurements give no ground for concern about a catastrophic future warming.” - Scientist Dr. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, a chemical engineer at Abo Akademi University in Finland, author of 200 scientific publications and former Greenpeace member.



“Anyone who claims that the debate is over and the conclusions are firm has a fundamentally unscientific approach to one of the most momentous issues of our time.” - Solar physicist Dr. Pal Brekke, senior advisor to the Norwegian Space Centre in Oslo. Brekke has published more than 40 peer-reviewed scientific articles on the sun and solar interaction with the Earth.

“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity.” - Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico
“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” - U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA.

“Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will.” – . Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ.


“After reading [UN IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet.” - Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review.


“The Kyoto theorists have put the cart before the horse. It is global warming that triggers higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, not the other way round…A large number of critical documents submitted at the 1995 U.N. conference in Madrid vanished without a trace. As a result, the discussion was one-sided and heavily biased, and the U.N. declared global warming to be a scientific fact,” Andrei Kapitsa, a Russian geographer and Antarctic ice core researcher.


“I am convinced that the current alarm over carbon dioxide is mistaken...Fears about man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science.” - Award Winning Physicist Dr. Will Happer, Professor at the Department of Physics at Princeton University and Former Director of Energy Research at the Department of Energy, who has published over 200 scientific papers, and is a fellow of the American Physical Society, The American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the National Academy of Sciences.



“Nature's regulatory instrument is water vapor: more carbon dioxide leads to less moisture in the air, keeping the overall GHG content in accord with the necessary balance conditions.” – Prominent Hungarian Physicist and environmental researcher Dr. Miklós Zágoni reversed his view of man-made warming and is now a skeptic. Zágoni was once Hungary’s most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol.


“For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" - Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.


“Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp…Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.” - Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee.



Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
Aldous Huxley




Armenia – Zvartnots and Shirak international airports are closed due to heavy snowfall.[4]
Azerbaijan – On 8 February, temperatures in Baku dropped to −14 °C (7 °F), breaking a 42-year-old record.[5] Baku international airport also suffered a serious problems and had to cancel some flights.
Belarus – Early in the day on 30 January, subzero temperatures spread rapidly, data accessed by AccuWeather showed.[6] According to meteoinfo.by, on the night of 11 through 12 February, temperatures in the Brahin Raion dropped to −34.3 °C (−29.7 °F). According to National Agency BielTA, from 1 January, more than 180 people died in domestic fires. Total number of casualties remain unknown.[7]
Bulgaria – Nearly 150 cm (4.9 ft) of snow has fallen, with one man dying of hypothermia as his car was covered in snow.[8] Meteoalarm issued snow warnings for western Bulgaria, wind warnings for central parts and rain warnings for eastern areas of the country.[9] Temperatures have been consistently under −10 °C (14 °F) for more than a week with a low reading of −30 °C (−22 °F) on two different occasions in Knezha. The wall of the Ivanovo dam in southern Haskovo Province broke, flooding the village of Biser and killing 11 people in addition to inflicting serious infrastructure damage. At least 16 other deaths have been reported throughout the country due to frostbite or exhaustion.
Croatia – As of 6 February, 3 people died,[10] with concerns of many villages being cut off, especially near Vrgorac.
Cyprus – On the 29 February, snow was reported as falling in the capital, Nicosia.
France – On the 6 February, BBC News reported 4 deaths, and 43 regions in France on high alert for 'exceptional' weather conditions. On 11 February, the Six Nations Championship game between France and Ireland, was postponed shortly before kick-off, due to the pitch freezing, as temperatures plummeted beneath −10 °C (14 °F).

Piazza del Popolo, Rome under the snowfall

Italy – Rome experienced a rare intense snowfall, and many of Venice's canals have frozen over, the heavy snowfall occurred also in the Apennines.[11] On 6 February, the Italian rail network may face legal action, due to many passengers being stranded on trains over the weekend. Temperatures plummeted to −21 °C (−6 °F) on 7 February, in the north of the country. At least 54 people have died [12]
Georgia – On the 7 February Georgian press reported that the country was experiencing the coldest winter in nearly 50 years, with important water bodies, such as Mtkvari and Tbilisi sea freezing over.[13]

Tisza River near Szeged, Hungary

Greece – Many homeless people froze to death and a dam on the Evros river burst due to pressure. Temperatures also plummered to −25 °C (−13 °F) in the northwest city of Florina.
Latvia – The lowest temperature was recorded at the Strenči meteorological station, hitting −34.2 °C (−29.6 °F) on 5 February.[14] For several days not a single meteorological station reported a temperature above −20 °C (−4 °F). Because of the severe cold wave, some regions in Latvia experienced a shortage of power supply,[14] an increased number of domestic fires were reported.
Malta – The lowest temperature at grass level was measured at Zebbug. The temperature was that of −2.4 °C (27.7 °F). It was measured on Wednesday. 8 February.
Netherlands – A cold wave was registered in the Netherlands, with a low of −18.9 °C (−2.0 °F) in De Bilt, the lowest recorded since 1956,[15] and a national low of −22.8 °C (−9.0 °F) in Lelystad, the lowest temperature recorded all over the Netherlands since 1985.[16] A homeless man was frozen to death on February 2.[17] People have been ice-skating on the canals of Amsterdam.
Poland – Early in the day on 30 January, subzero cold spread widely over Belarus, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and eastern Poland, data accessed by AccuWeather.com showed.[6] From the January 1st 2012, 103 people froze to death. Fire and Rescue Service reported 360 domestic fires during one night (Feb 11 - Feb 12), and almost 12000 fire accidents this year. Reports state 107 people died in flames with 550 more suffer various degrees of burns. Due to carbon monoxide poisoning 24 people died.[18]

Winter of 2012 in south of Bucharest, Romania

Romania – At least 86 people have died.[19] In some areas, the bitter cold followed heavy falls of snow, among them the late-week dump of 5 m (16 ft)[6] On the 11 February, the Danube was reportedly completely frozen over.

Winter in Volgograd Oblast, Russia

Russia – European Russia experienced widespread subzero cold.[6] The Ministry of Health and Social Development stated on 13 February that the cold had killed 215 people since 1 January.[20]
Serbia – Sjenica set −32 °C (−26 °F), early on the morning of 9 February. In Serbia at least 50,000 villagers have been trapped by heavy snow and blizzards in mountainous areas.[21] Gas supplies are running low.[22] On the 8 February, electricity consumption broke a record, standing at 162.67 million kWh, so the government mandated a shutdown of all non-essential industries and decorative lightning.[23] The death toll has risen to 20.[22]
Spain – Palma, Majorca registered the most important snow episode[clarification needed] since 1956.[24]

Catalonia – Heavy snowfall and winds of 175 km/h (109 mph) were reported in Portbou as temperatures dropped to −23 °C (−9 °F).

Turkey – On the 31 January, heavy snow blanketed Istanbul, covering the Blue Mosque. 102 flights were cancelled at Ataturk International Airport. Nearly 140,000 people made homeless by the 2011 Van earthquake, were reported as struggling to cope with temperatures of −4 °C (25 °F) and over 30 centimetres of snow.
Ukraine – More than 100 homeless people have died as temperatures dropped as low as −35 °C (−31 °F).[21] Gas supplies are running low.[11] The cold led to more than 600 people being treated for frostbite and hypothermia within three days, according to officials. Nearly 24,000 people sought shelter during the same three days, the BBC reported. In western Ukraine, Rivne and Ivano-Frankivsk dipped to −28 °C (−18 °F).[6] Ukrainian health officials stated (on February 16) 151 people had died because of the cold,[25] with alcohol regularly a contributing factor,[25] the highest number in Europe.[2]
United Kingdom – The Met Office issued a severe weather warning as heavy snow fell across much of the country on 4 February, disrupting roads and flights.[26] Temperatures fell to −11.8 °C (10.8 °F) in the early hours of February 8.[27] More heavy snow fell overnight in England on 9–10 February. On the night of 10–11 February, the temperature in England[specify] fell to −15.6 °C (3.9 °F), the coldest temperatures since Boxing Day in 2010.[28]

[edit] Africa
Winter in Algeria

Algeria – The north of the country awoke to a blanket of snow. The average temperature at this particular time of year being 9 °C (48 °F).
Libya – On the 6 February snow fell down in Tripoli which is a very rare even
Member Since: Januar 27, 2009 Posts: 26 Comments: 1094
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We need more people like you, overwash12. People that will act on the knowledge of what we do know now and not sit on their thumbs until they figure that we now know it all. We NEED more people like you, overwash12. Thank you!
Oh,Thanks Rookie. I hope ya'll get more rain this summer. I hate dry summers! I'll leave now,got to get some sleep for the graveyard!
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About RickyRood

I'm a professor at U Michigan and lead a course on climate change problem solving. These articles often come from and contribute to the course.