Skyepony's WunderBlog

Atlas Launch Delay & Weather News
Posted by: Skyepony, 09:04 PM GMT am 09. Juni 2007 +2

Todays Launch of the Atlas carrying some classified military stuff was delayed til

Date: June 15, 2007 (Friday)

Launch Period: 10:30 A.M. - 12:00 P.M. EDT

For easy online viewing go here.

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Weather News~

british flooding

Bangladesh flooding


Exceptional drought spreading from Alabama into Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia


Met Office to unveil new Atlantic tropical storm forecast

Hunting Hurricanes: NASA Seeks Answers in African Dust

Australia's drought may end

71 die in torrential rains in China

Gonu inflicts $1bn damage

Video~ unclaimed Katrina victims in warehouse await memorail

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NOAA has done a nice article on Rip currents figured I'd feature some of it this week since we tend to loose some tourist & a few locals to this phenominon every year.

Rip currents are narrow channels of fast-moving water that pull swimmers away from the shore. Panicked swimmers fail trying to counter the current by swimming straight back to shore � putting themselves at risk of drowning because of fatigue. Rip currents account for more than 80 percent of rescues performed by lifeguards, totaling tens of thousands of people in the United States every year. An estimated 100 people are killed by rip currents annually.

To escape a rip current swim on the surface parrallel to shore till your out of it.



The rip current hazard for the day for ECFL is posted with the hazard graphics of this blog & updates in real time. They occure all up & down the east coast so check the area forecast where your swimming.
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NHC Tropical Disscusion

Local text Products
Local Forecast Graphics.

Click to make larger


Local Hazards
Wind & Sea....Rip Current.....Fire weather......Lightning.......Severe Hail.....Severe Winds.....Tornados




These will update automatically with conditions.
Credit~NWS More East Central FL Graphical Hazard maps & these full size are available there.
Local NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook


Watching for rain..

click map to go interactive







Fri~ cooler~ 80s & less rain, around 30% chance. Best chance inland & south~scattered showers do carry a chance of severe storms.

Weekend~ May have a low to TD develop from 94L around the Yucatan & move over the south 1/2 of the state with good rain. Most likely it never is gonna make it to a deep single low but more like several weeker lows. It's currently being sheared pretty hard north but conditions should change as the low level front over the keys lifts to the north.



click maps to make bigger

Surfers & Surge
cool wave watch graphic.
NOAA Wave Watch III
Storm surge threat model...Always wondered if or how vulnerable your or friend's place would be to surge? Covers Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, St Lucie & Martin Counties.


Radar/Satellite/Microwave
Melbourne NEXRAD Radar
NOAA Satellite Services ~ I like the RGB by day, rainbow at night with some Water Vapor thrown in once in a while.
Good place to keep up with invests.

Models~
Local Meso Model (well it covers most the state)~ lots of informative blue bars, each a different model, above it to click on too. Forecasts weather for the nexr 24 hrs.
FSU Model page
Shear loop .
Comparing different models shear, steering & percipitation loops.

Click to make maps bigger.

STEERING CURRENTS


HAZARDS


Tropical Depression Probibility


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Atlantic
94L~ 20kts 1006mb



EPAC
TD3E~ gone

WPAC
95W~gone


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Updated June 11th~ The monthly is out. Their take is possible for La Ni�a conditions in the next 3 months. (a sudden dive is looking less likely)

Regions 1&2 stayed the same this week, regions 3 fell to -.8, while 3,4 & region 4 stayed the same.

We are still barely on the cool side of neutral

Nearly all of the model forecasts predict below-average SSTs in the Ni�o 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120-170oW) during the remainder of the year. Most statistical models show ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through August 2007, while most dynamical models indicate La Ni�a will develop within the next three months. Some forecast models, especially the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), continue to predict a rapid transition to La Ni�a by July 2007. However, for the past few months the CFS forecasts have been predicting a stronger and more rapid cooling than has actually occurred. Historically, the next few months are a favorable period for the development of La Ni�a.

ESPI rose from -0.04 to -.00 for the last weeks for the last 30 days. I expect to see the moderation trend continue for the next week or 2 with more cooling after.

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51. psualum95 04:35 PM GMT am 12. Juni 2007    
This not my preferred method of getting my rain...
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6553
52. Skyepony 04:54 PM GMT am 12. Juni 2007    
But it does seem the way we get it at the end of drought. Hail is bad for my garden. I've had more crops destroyed that way than all others combined.

Start of the Wet Season*
Orlando May 26
Daytona Beach May 28
Melbourne/Vero Beach
(approximated) May 26
Ft. Pierce/Stuart
(approximated) May 25

MLB NWS

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
53. psualum95 05:06 PM GMT am 12. Juni 2007    
174
WUUS52 KMLB 121649
SVRMLB
FLC069-117-127-121745-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0042.070612T1646Z-070612T1745Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1246 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR ORANGE CITY AND ANOTHER NEAR CASSIA...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
DELTONA...LAKE MARY...ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...SANFORD...
LONGWOOD...CASSELBERRY...OSTEEN...WINTER SPRINGS...AND GENEVA

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 2923 8148 2898 8170 2862 8141 2868 8090

$$

KELLY
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6553
54. Skyepony 05:12 PM GMT am 12. Juni 2007    
Messy Tornado report~

1524 ANASTASIA ST. JOHNS FL 2983 8127 PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO. WITNESS REPORTS IT BLEW A PORT-O-LET SEVERAL YARDS AND INTO HER DRIVEWAY. (JAX)

CPC
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
55. Skyepony 07:33 PM GMT am 12. Juni 2007    
Got .73" here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
56. Gatorxgrrrl 10:29 PM GMT am 12. Juni 2007    
We got less that half an inch. It did rain hard, just not that long.
Member Since: Mai 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15596
57. Skyepony 12:04 AM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
Gator~ seems the farther north the more rain today... I'm happy for our NFL hay.

Article on horse, drought & hay

COLUMBIA-The recent floods and above average rainfall this spring might make it difficult to remember last year's drought, but horse owners are still feeling the effects. Take a look at the problems they face now.

Last year's drought was not good for the hay crop, which is the primary food source for horses.

"People faced with the shortage of hay for the horses have been buying hay and alfalfa from the states beyond Missouri and some of the alfalfa contains a lot of selenium," Dr. Philip johnson of the MU Veterinary School said.

Johnson says selenium is a normal nutrient that can be problematic in large doses.

Some owners couldn't import hay and were forced to feed their horses the bad Missouri hay, which led to a vitamin-E deficiency in a few horses.

Now horse owners are watching out for a couple of symptoms. Weight loss or the loss of hair from the mane and tail, and cracking in the feet are a few red flags that point to selenium poisoning.

Weakness, loss of muscle mass, trembling muscles and the tendency for the horse to want to get off its feet can all be signs of a vitamin-E deficiency.

If your horse is showing any of these symptoms, Johnson says to take your horse to the vet. However, he also says a simple blood test may not show effects selenium has had on the horse.

"The diagnosis is based on circumstances, importation of alfalfa from a problematic area for example," Johnson said

Horse owners can look forward to a better hay crop this time around.

"As far as mineral deficiency caused by a drought, we don't see any of that this year, we don't expect it," Johnson said

Johnson also says that if a horse is showing these symptoms, all horses who are eating the same food should be tested. All of the horses effected are expected to make full recoveries.

Edited by: Field Sutton
Reported by: Courtney Schultz


Published: Tuesday, June 12, 2007 at 6:08 PM
Last Updated: Tuesday, June 12, 2007 at 6:34 PM
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
58. Skyepony 02:23 AM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
Slideshow of ECFL damage from today's storms.

Today's lightnin
Total strokes: 23,194 (avg. 17.5/min.)
Cloud to ground: 21,187 - 91.3% (avg. 16.0/min.)
Peak stroke count: 146 at 1:42:55 PM

49mph gusts in Orlando
46mph gusts in Melbourne
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
59. Fshhead 02:27 AM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
Hey Skye!!!! Yea nasty conditions here in Miami today, I am hoping the freakin' lake got a good shot of it!!!!! Any idea if it did???
Member Since: November 19, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 9960
60. Raysfan70 10:13 AM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
Good Morning {{Skye}}!
Member Since: Juli 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57353
61. psualum95 04:19 PM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 am EDT Wed Jun 13 2007

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

much of the northern and central Florida Peninsula
parts of southeast Georgia
coastal waters

Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1130 am until
700 PM EDT.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles north of
Waycross Georgia to 40 miles southwest of Melbourne Florida. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou1).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Discussion... cold upper vort sern GA continues moving sewd and will
aid in development of severe thunderstorms this afternoon swd to
central FL. With MLCAPES climbing to aoa 2000 j/kg and 30kt of deep
layer shear... a few supercells are possible... particularly vicinity
E coast sea breeze front. Primary threat will be large hail and
downbursts.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 27020.


... Hales
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6553
62. psualum95 09:27 PM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
512 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES ...LAKE MARIAN...LAKE KISSIMMEE...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 512 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO JUST WEST OF
LAKE MARIAN. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY TO THE WEST OF AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MARIAN AND
MAY IMPACT STATE ROUTE 60 ACROSS SOUTHWEST OSCEOLA COUNTY.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

LAT...LON 2798 8111 2793 8134 2765 8112 2768 8091
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6553
63. psualum95 10:25 PM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
620 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OKEECHOBEE...FORT DRUM...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FORT DRUM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT DRUM BY 630 PM EDT...
FOUR SEASONS ESTATES AND 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF OKEECHOBEE BY 715 PM
EDT...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE
TORNADO IS NEARBY.

LAT...LON 2765 8080 2760 8106 2720 8083 2733 8067
2756 8068 2756 8076

$$
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 6553
64. Skyepony 10:32 PM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
psualum95~ just saw the tornado vorticy on radar involed with that last one. Still raining here. Lightning died down enough I'm online for now. Thanks for posting the warnings. A rumble off thunder anywhere near here & I get thrown offline.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
65. Gatorxgrrrl 11:04 PM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
Hi Skye - we got a nice little storm rolling through here a while ago. Hope your doing great!
Member Since: Mai 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15596
66. Skyepony 11:25 PM GMT am 13. Juni 2007    
Hey Gator~ Nice napping storm here. .22" so far.

Here's the last CMC run. It's 1st indication of tropical weather for the weekend. Probibly should have posted the gfdl yesterday when it wass pointing at the same scenerio, just even more warm core.


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
67. Raysfan70 10:13 AM GMT am 14. Juni 2007    
{{Skye}}


Always happens when I want to take the Boat out on the Water.
Member Since: Juli 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57353
68. oakland 10:15 AM GMT am 14. Juni 2007    
myspace layouts, myspace codes, glitter graphics
Member Since: September 4, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 7520
69. Gatorxgrrrl 01:11 PM GMT am 14. Juni 2007    
Morning Skye - loved the picture of your "baby" in my blog - you get the award for the biggest baby!
Member Since: Mai 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15596
70. Skyepony 01:17 PM GMT am 14. Juni 2007    
Good morning all!

Buoy watching south of the caymons


west of the caymons


these should self update

local ships & buoys around there over the last 12 hrs.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
71. Skyepony 01:21 PM GMT am 14. Juni 2007    
Thanks Gator.. He's really a firey stud pony ya know;)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
72. stormydee 05:10 PM GMT am 14. Juni 2007    
Hey Skye!!!! :-)
I won't be around this weekend...hopefully all will be quiet.

Hope you are having a great day! :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
73. Skyepony 05:24 PM GMT am 14. Juni 2007    
Dee~ Have a great weekend. The cmc has gone back to a TD crossing SFL exit over your house on ECFL, then ride the east coast up into GA. Maybe secure the garbage cans, but with the shear it's not gonna be anything big if it comes to pass. The biggest threat would be our regular garden varity mesocyclones, waterspouts & such.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
74. whitewabit (Mod) 05:27 PM GMT am 14. Juni 2007    
hello Dee and Skye...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 327 Comments: 24471
75. Skyepony 01:47 AM GMT am 15. Juni 2007    
That buoy west of the caymons took a dive & now we have 94L...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986
76. Raysfan70 10:16 AM GMT am 15. Juni 2007    
Good Morning {{Skye}}!
Member Since: Juli 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57353
77. Rainman32 12:09 PM GMT am 15. Juni 2007    
Hmmm... you can color me dubious

Member Since: September 19, 2004 Posts: 32 Comments: 6123
78. Skyepony 08:26 PM GMT am 15. Juni 2007    
Good afternnon Rays & Rainman & eveyone.

Rocket launched, had a thing & missed it. Busy day

Recon was cancelled
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST FOR 15/1800Z IN GULF OF MEXICO
CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1235Z.

94L looks to have gathered a little better during the day, but that low up by VA has done nothing but go wandering, perhaps even south a little...pushing 94L's convection up under Cuba for now.

Notice thay haven't run any of the invest models since 00Z as well.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29986

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Melbourne, FL
Elevation: 29 ft
Temperatur: 91.9 °F
Taupunkt: 76.6 °F
Feuchtigkeit: 61%
Wind: 7.0 mph from the Nordost
Windböen: 11.0 mph
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Elevation: 2540 ft
Temperatur: 79.5 °F
Taupunkt: 66.7 °F
Feuchtigkeit: 65%
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Windböen: 3.5 mph
Updated: 04:35 PM EDT am 19. Juni 2013
APRSWXNET Etowah NC US
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Elevation: 2376 ft
Temperatur: 75.0 °F
Taupunkt: 66.0 °F
Feuchtigkeit: 74%
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Windböen: 0.0 mph
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