Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast and Weather Center

AMO: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
AST: Atlantic Standard Time
ATCF: Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system
BOC: Bay Of Campeche
CATL: Central Atlantic
CARCAH: Chief, Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination, All Hurricanes
CDO: Central Dense Overcast
CISK: Conditional Instability of the Second Kind
CLIPER: CLImatology and PERsistence
CMC: Canadian Meteorological Center
COC: Center Of Circulation
CONUS: CONtinental United States
DOMREP: DOMinican REPublic
EATL: East Atlantic
ECMWF: European Center for Medium range Weather
Forecasting
ENSO: El Nino/Southern Oscillation
EWRC: EyeWall Replacement Cycle
GANTSEC: Greater ANtilles SECtion
GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GFS: Global Forecast System
GOMEX: Gulf Of MEXico
HWRF: Hurricane and Weather Research Forecasting
IRT: In Reference or In Regard To
ITCZ: InterTropical Convergence Zone
IVO: In the Vicinity Of
LLC: Low Level Circulation
MCC: Mesoscale Convective Complex
MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation
MM5: FSU Mesoscale Model
MSLP: Mean Sea Level Pressure
NAM: North American Mesoscale Model
NAO: North Atlantic Oscillation
NCATL: North Central Atlantic
NEWD: Northeastward
NHC: National Hurricane Center
NOGAPS: Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction
System
NWD: Northward
OBX: Outer Banks (N.C.)
OOA: On Or About
QBO: Quasi Biennial Oscillation
PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation
POP: Probability Of Precipitation
SAL: Saharan Air Layer
SEUS: SouthEast U.S.
SLOSH: Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge due to Hurricanes
SOI: Southern Oscillation Index
SPC: Storm Prediction Center
SSD: Satellite Services Division
SWEAT: Severe WEAther Threat
SWWD: Southwestward
THCP: Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
TROF: Meteorological acronym for TROUGH
TUTT: Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trof
UKMET: United Kingdom METeorological office
ULL: Upper Level Low
WW3: Wave Watch 3 model.
UTC: Universal Time Coordinated (also known as Zulu time)
XTRP: Not a model. Short for Extrapolation. Dead reckoning plot of a storm if it kept in a straight line, with no other forces acting upon it.

Good afternoon!

Newly formed Tropical Depression 13 is located in the Bay of Campeche. As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory TD 13 was located near 19.0N;94.1W. Estimated maximum sustained winds were 35 mph, and the estimated central pressure was 1007 mb / 29.74 in. The depression was moving to the WNW near 10mph. Based on the most recent steering layers forecast maps from PSU eWall site, I expect this motion to continue until landfall. Current and forecast shear maps indicate a well established upper level anti-cyclone over the depression, with upper level winds less than 10 kts. This upper environment is very favorable for further strengthening, and I am not ruling out a Tropical Storm before landfall. As mentioned by another (well respected) meteorologist, the topography of the southern portion of the BOC may also aide in further development, based on the location of the depression. The government of Mexico has watches issued, and residents in or near the watch area
should monitor official statements from their local government officials.

Another area of disturbed weather has exited the African coast today, and will be monitored for any organization as it moves generally westward over the next 48 hours. Three of the computer models develop this area, with the GFS and CMC being the most bullish, and appearing to make this a hurricane. Right now, without any definitive system, strength and track of this forecast entity would currently be fruitless to try and forecast. However, both the GFS and CMC indicate this would begin to re-curve, rather sharply in about 144 hours into the forecast period. One thing that raises my eyebrow (at least until the new run of the steering layers forecast comes out), is the GFS shows recurvature, however, in the steering layers forecast, the GFS solution keeps this below 15N, and showing a flow in that forecast time that would keep the system on more of a westerly course.

Never the less, I will be monitoring the area over the next few days.

The current pattern over the next 2-3 days is indicative again of a set up for situational development, anywhere from near the Bahamas, southward to the Caribbean. This is not saying anything WILL develop, as this does not always happen, only that the set up is there.

I am watching a Mid-Upper Level Low near 23N;60W which is displaying rotation at both levels. I'm going to monitor this to see if any surface reflection takes place. Wind shear over the area is supposed to remain marginal for the next 36 hours, before becoming hostile in about 48 hours.

Another ULL is noted in the Caribbean, but is moving WSW and should be over land later tonight.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.

"Storm"


T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advance