When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle. - Edmund Burke
By: sp34n119w, 01:29 AM GMT am 27. Februar 2009
I am not really here. I just wanted a new blog up, so, I am pretending to be here. I will be here later.
In the meantime...
Since ancient times there have been those
who have attained the subtle essence of the universe
and thus become what they are.
Heaven attained the subtle essence of the universe
and became clear.
Earth attained the subtle essence of the universe
and became stable.
Divine Spirits attained the subtle essence of the universe
and became powerful.
The Valley of the Universe attained the subtle essence of the universe
and became productive.
The myriad things attained the subtle essence of the universe
and became prosperous.
The sages attained the subtle essence of the universe
and became wise.
All became what they are by attaining the subtle essence of the universe
and hence their true nature.
Extinction happens to one who violates his true nature.
Without being pure, Heaven would cease to be.
Without being stable, Earth would burst into bits.
Without maintaining their potency, spirits would disperse.
Without being productive, the vast Valley of the Universe would become exhausted.
Without being reproductive, the myriad things would perish.
Without fortifying themselves with integral virtue, sages would stumble and fall.
Greatness is rooted in plainness,
just as the low forms the foundation of the high.
Realizing this, the ancient sovereigns
were conent to style themselves as
desolate, unworthy, and needy.
Therefore, one who does not separate his being from
the nature of the universe follows the Integral Way.
He has no wish to sound like jingling jade pendants
in order to court a good name,
nor like the rumbling of a stone rolling from a cliff
in order to create a bad name.
Each one should work
on one's own subtle spiritual integration
with the subtle essence of the universe.
The Complete Works of Lao Tzu
Tao Teh Ching & Hua Hu Ching
Tao Teh Ching Verse 39
Translation by Hua-Ching Ni
For further works and other translations, thanks to barefootontherocks, we have this link.
By: sp34n119w, 07:39 PM GMT am 11. Februar 2009
Okay. Sure. Why not?
And, yes, I'm still being lazy ;)
Marine layer rolled in last night around 8-ish. It was patchy but enough to preclude comet-gazing. At least it kept the lo temp up above 50 again.
Today it is overcast but the forecast is calling for sunshine later. From the visible loop it looks like it will clear out soon :)
Right now it looks like Saturday will be a perfect outdoorsy day all over SoCal.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1008 AM PST WED FEB 25 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
THE MARINE LAYER HAS MADE A RESURGENCE THIS MORNING...WITH COASTAL
FOG EXTENDING INTO ALL VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CUYAMA AND SANTA
CLARITA VALLEYS...AND SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF
ABOUT 1800 FEET...AND WITH SUCH A RAPID DEEPENING...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY.
STILL EXPECT GOOD CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INVERSION IS FAIRLY
WEAK AND SURFACE WINDS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A COASTAL
EDDY TO SUSTAIN COASTAL STRATUS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A
FEW DEGREES AS HEIGHTS FALL AND 950MB TEMPERATURES COOL ABOUT 2-3
Here's a link to the visible loop of the west coast and a pic below (which I include for my own enjoyment):
[[[ Previously on "As SoCal Shivers":
Oh, it's a lovely day in Santa Paula!
It has been cloudy for the last few days which, as LowerCal pointed out somewhere, kept our overnight lows nice and warm - low 50's Saturday night and upper 50's last night. I like that - cloud cover has its value!
Rain was insignifcant - 0.03" since Saturday.
Winds are normal, today. From the west, 11mph with hi at 18mph, so far. Doesn't seem stormy though that's where these winds are coming from - rather than the usual, run-of-the-mill, onshore flow.
Forecast today calls for scattered thundershowers which does seem possible. The sun is out, it is 74º, and there is plenty of moisture up there. On the other hand, the heat may be too little, too late, as what's left of the plume is well south of me, now. Maybe LA, Orange, and SD will see some boomers.
From the 10:15 AM forecast discussion:
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MODELS SHOW INCREASING
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM A 100 KNOT JET CORE THAT WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF LA
Yeah. What he said.
Sunshine and...... a lazy blogger! LOL
Don't want to write a new blog, want to keep the comments -
especially the computer stuff at end, there.
Meantime, it's a beautiful day in SP - 73º, clear, and calm. Yea!
Ignore the outdated header below ;)
Quite the SoCal rain event shaping up for late Sunday night and throughout the day Monday.
There are already high wind, flash flood and winter storm warnings (with some at advisory level and some at watch level) in SLO, SB, LA, and Ventura counties, along with much of the rest of the state.
The big problem when we get this much rain this fast is the flash flood and urban street flood potential. The creeks and rivers should be fine since the reservoirs are low and won't be releasing, but, there is still a good chance of locally heavy rainfall triggering mudslides and flooding.
The thing to do, if possible, is stay home and watch the local TV mets dance and drool with excitement like puppies who have a new sock to play with ;)
The rain outlook is looking much better!
Even better, the snow level will drop and there may be enough to stick for awhile.
A special weather statement was updated this morning for SoCal. It is, of course, at the bottom of any of WU's SoCal City Pages.
From the forecast discussion, They've brought Friday's rain back:
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL COAST A BIT PAST DAWN AND THEN
REACH L.A. COUNTY BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...
...RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ALONG THE COASTS
AND VLYS AND A INCH TO TWO INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS A BRIEF BURST OF SOUTH FLOW SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE WESTERN VENTURA COUNTY
COASTAL SLOPES COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS IS QUITE
THE COLD SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO BETWEEN 3000 AND
4000 FEET WHICH WILL DEFINITELY AFFECT MOUNTAIN TRAVEL.
A little break with just scattered showers and then:
ALL EYES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE BIGGEST STORM OF THE
SEASON BEARS DOWN ON SOUTHERN CA...
...THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SHOULD LIKELY BE VERY IMPRESSIVE. IT WILL LIKELY HAVE A 4 TO 6 HOUR
BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE A BROAD AREA OF
SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL GREATLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL
SLOPES. THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER
THE COASTS AND VLYS TO 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE
NEAR 5000 FEET. THE STORM WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL COAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND OVERNIGHT FOR L.A. COUNTY.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME THE RAINFALL FORECAST
CALLS FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CSTS AND VLYS WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE MOST
FAVORED SOUTH FACING FOOTHILL COASTAL SLOPE LOCATIONS.
Sounds good, doesn't it? At least it will give our local TV mets a chance to break out the "STORM WATCH" graphics. Hey, they deserve it after months and months of trying to make the weather here interesting.
What happens after Sunday is up in the air. Either the rain continues (and we're in the usual big trouble from flooding - which we may be in some areas by the end of this weekend, anyway) or, it doesn't, and we go back to postcard weather.
Oh, it's so exciting. The anticipation is killing me.
Oh, let's hope so! :)
I don't think anyone is complaining about the rain we've received so far in February. Here in Santa Paula it looks like we got over 3" on the flat, which is nice.
Right now, there is a front dropping some rain north of Point Conception and it is unlikely that we'll see anything from that - maybe a shower.
The low that was supposed to bring the next big shot of precip to SoCal over the weekend is tracking inland so... little to no rain for us. That's okay - we can use a little sun before the next hits.
Here's what They say about that one:
FRIDAYS SYSTEM IS NOT LOOKING THAT IMPRESSIVE ANYMORE AS IT IS
TAKING A MORE OVERLAND TRACK. STILL A WEAK FRONT AND TWO POST
FRONTAL TROFS MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RAIN EVERYWHERE DURING
THIS PERIOD. BUT IT WILL NOT BE A STEADY RAIN...IT IS MORE LIKELY
THAT THE RAIN WILL COME IN FITS AND STARTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
MOSTLY LIKELY BE UNDER A HALF INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT
ABOUT 5000 FEET BUT WILL LOWER TO NEAR 4000 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
NWS says the next chance for rain is Saturday or Sunday and Monday or Tuesday. Or, whenever ;)
If it does come it will be cold and drop the snow levels - good for photo ops and easing drought, bad for commuters and truckers.
IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT STORM ONE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND LAST INTO MONDAY MORNING. STORM TWO COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
AFFECT THE AREA FOR A DAY OR A DAY AND A HALF. BOTH OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE COUPLE OF INCHES RAIN OVER THE COASTS WITH MORE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW FOR BOTH THESE SYSTEMS AND
IT IS LIKELY BOTH THE I-5 AND I-14 WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED.
I know - one cannot expect specificity this far out. It's just fun to have some fun with the forecasts.
In any case, we may not be getting a Fabulous February, but, we are getting enough to please the natives (plants, that is).
Already dreaming of a Spring road trip to the desert 3*)
Have a Happy!
Updated: 06:36 PM GMT am 25. Februar 2009
By: sp34n119w, 08:20 PM GMT am 04. Februar 2009
Al: Well, we've got quite a matchup going on here today, between the persistent high pressure system that's been sitting over the west for, really, this entire season...
John: Absolutely. I mean, the high has had its weak moments, but, you know, it always comes back strong.
Al: Right. And these lows keep coming in, trying to break down the high pressure...
John: Yeah, but, they can't do it! There was that low a couple of weeks ago, that looked like it had some legs, but, when it came down to it, the high just couldn't be budged and the low was sent packing.
Al: So, what does this week's contender have that the last one didn't?
John: Well, the thing is, the high has been at this all season long, you know? And it's tired, it's been beaten up and pounded on, you know, like these little lows will do, for the entire season and, you know, it's bound to break down at some point. You just can't maintain that level of pressure for an entire season.
Al: Well, some would say that the high has already done its job. That the air is so dry, there's no way the low can bring any rain onto the field.
John: Sure. Sure. But, here's what those folks aren't seeing, what they don't understand. See, the low doesn't have to bring all its guns to bear all at once.
Al: What do you mean?
John: Well, see here, the storm has a front line that's going to bring the initial moisture, really break down that dry air that the high left as a buffer, just hoping it would be enough to hold off the storm, and then, then, then, the big guy comes in behind, and half it's work is already done! There's really nothing left to do but what it does best.
Al: So, you're saying the front line is going to pave the way.
John: Yeah. Exactly. I mean, it's always that way, right? It's all about the line!
Al: All right, well, let's look at some numbers from the NWS...
THE FIRST STORM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AROUND DAWN THURSDAY AND WILL THEN MOVE INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY BY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING 6 TO 8 HOURS OF STEADY RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.6 AND 1.1 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND UP TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES UP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES AND UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT ABOVE 7000 FEET...BUT SHOULD LOWER TO UNDER 6000 FEET BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT STORM WILL WILL ROTATE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN TO THE AREA...BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THEN MOVING INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ALONG THE COAST AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE TWO STORMS IS EXPECTED RANGE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 2.0 INCHES ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND UP TO 2.0 TO 4.0 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED SOUTH FACING SLOPES. THE INITIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST CALLS FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.
John: Yeah. So. See? It's that second rush that really packs a punch!
Al: Sure looks that way. Of course, you never know, and we'll have to wait and see if this low really has what it takes to take over from that remarkably persistent high. In any case, it should be a great match!
John: Yeah. Lots of fun! Can't wait to see this one!
Al: And here comes the kickoff!
Updated: 10:02 PM GMT am 09. Februar 2009