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Last Updated: 04:15 PM GMT am 07. November 2009
— Last Comment: 04:22 PM GMT am 06. November 2009
 =========================================================================================== == Triad Radar (refresh browser for most recent radar image) == ===========================================================================================   =========================================================================================== == Short Term / 5 Day Forecast == ===========================================================================================  _  =========================================================================================== == US Current Weather == ===========================================================================================  =========================================================================================== == Other Links == =========================================================================================== -- My Youtube Videos -- -- Regional Visible Satellite Loop -- -- National Hurricane Center -- -- Storm Prediction Center -- -- Climate Prediction Center -- -- CFS Seasonal Climate Forecasts -- -- Hydrometeorological Prediction Center -- -- Southeast Regional Climate Center -- -- Southeast Drought Monitor -- -- Past Weather Events in NC -- =========================================================================================== == How to View Stereo Images == =========================================================================================== I find that viewing stereo images can show much more depth than the traditional 2D images we photographers normally take. For those of you who aren't so sure how to view stereo images, here's what you do: stare at the center on the line, then cross your eyes until the two pictures blend together. You should then see a 3D image. When viewing these images in the main photo gallery, it's best to view them in the "Medium" photo size rather than the "Large" photo size, simply because with a smaller size, your eyes don't have to strain as much. Also, it's best to sit back at least a couple feet away from your monitor; this also helps your eyes not to strain too much when you are crossing them. Here's a stereo image to "practice" on. If viewed successfully, you should see the ivy leaves "pop out" at you!  =========================================================================================== == Autumn Colors == =========================================================================================== This map shows the progression of peak Autumn colors across the continental US. As you can see, areas in the Rockies, Upper Midwest, and northern New England are some of the first areas to see colors at their peak, then as the weeks go by, areas further south see their peak colors, all the way down towards the Deep South by early to mid November. Typically by Thanksgiving, both the North and South for the most part have passed their peak, and then the colors to look for in nature are... well... these two: brown and white ;)  =========================================================================================== == My Winter 2009-2010 Forecast for the Eastern CONUS (primarily the states east of the Mississippi) == ===========================================================================================  _ (*** click on the maps to view them in detail ***) Precipitation: The precipitation map may look a bit complicated, but that's because I now believe that this Winter might be a bit complicated as well, at least in predicting it. The first thing you might notice different about this map is the Upper Midwest region. I originally predicted this area to have dry conditions through most of the season, with less LES. Now I am predicting this area (shaded in yellow) to have above average snowfall from October through December, and then below average snowfall from January through March. Also, I believe that the UP and western parts of Lower Michigan will have normal LES activity throughout the entire season, but especially from October through December. January through March might yield less LES however. I expect average snowfall for much of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, northwestern Ohio, and southeastern Michigan. As we move towards the East Coast, things really get active, as I expect much of the Northeast to have above average snowfall, especially from December through March. Nor'easters will probably be the main snow maker for these areas stretching from Virginia to Maine. Areas such as northern Maine, western New York, western Pennsylvania, northwestern West Virginia, southeastern Ohio, and much of Kentucky will have slightly above average snowfall this Winter. The forecast gets a little tricky as we head into the Southeast, because I believe this region will have a mixed bag of precipitation this Winter. Areas in the lower Mississippi Valley will most likely see slightly above average snowfall, especially between late January and early March. For the first half of Winter however, this area will probably have slightly below normal precipitation. Eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama will also see above average snowfall this season. Some of the most dangerous Winter weather conditions this season could set up across eastern Alabama, northern Georgia, and most of the Carolinas. This is where a significant threat of ice (freezing rain and/or sleet) will most likely occur, especially from late December through late March. If you remember from the previous map, I had this icy region further south, but in this map I have shifted it further north to include much of North Carolina. This is in part due to what I've been finding in my Persimmon seed experiments, but also from my past personally observations with setups like these. In addition to the ice storm threat, this same area should see above average snowfall for northern Georgia, northwestern South Carolina, and much of central and western North Carolina. Once you head south of this region, the main type of precipitation will be rainfall. However, given the location of where most of the storm tracks should travel, and given the fact that many times a trailing cold front is attached with the low, I expect severe thunderstorms to be a pretty regular occurrence over central and southern Florida. Otherwise, areas right along the Gulf Coast, stretching from Louisiana to Florida will have above average rainfall, along with southern Georgia. I believe that about covers it for the precipitation part of the forecast. Now on to the temperature forecast... Temperature: For the most part, the temperature map doesn't really differ that much from my original prediction. I still expect the same general areas of the country to have roughly the same temperatures as before. However, there is a difference when you look at the Upper Great Lakes region. I was expecting this area to be much warmer than average, but now I’ve changed it to just average. I am thinking this region will have a snowy first half of Winter, which will cause below average temperatures, but during the second half of the season, this region looks to be more under an influence of high pressure, and that perhaps will keep this area above average for a while. Other areas that will have average temperatures include northern Arkansas into parts of the Ohio Valley, and then into northern parts of the Northeast. I have shifted the above average temperature zone to areas around northern Missouri, western Illinois, and much of Iowa. Slightly above average temperatures can be expected from southern Missouri, to western Ohio, and then northwestward towards Wisconsin and Minnesota. Northern Maine can expect slightly above average temperatures as well. The Northeast will be below average for the most part, especially areas from eastern Virginia into central Pennsylvania, and eastward into southern New England. These areas will most likely be plagued by brutal nor'easters on a regular basis, especially from December through mid March. Nor'easters, and clipper systems too, will help pull down colder air from Canada, and with the lower Great Lakes producing slightly above average snowfall, these areas around the Lower Great Lakes will have slightly below average temperatures. Western Virginia, eastern West Virginia, western Maryland and western Pennsylvania will also have slightly below average temperatures, along with central New York and into parts of New England. Heading into the Lower Mississippi Valley, expect slightly below average temperatures here as well, specifically northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and Alabama, central and eastern Tennessee, and southeastern Kentucky. The Deep South will see below average temperatures for the second half of the season, primarily from December through March. The first part of the season may be quite mild, for much of the Southeast. Northern Florida will also have below average temperatures, but the southern half of the state should have slightly below average temperatures. Georgia and the Carolinas will have below average temperatures as well, and there will be two primary forces keeping this region cold. One is CAD, which stands for Cold Air Damming. Locals here in the Piedmont like to refer to this phenomenon as the Appalachian Wedge. This is when cold air from the North gets forced (usually by a high pressure) southward along and just to the east of the Appalachian mountains, and once it makes it down here, it has nowhere else to go. In other words, the cold air is dammed up against the mountains, and can't escape easily, thus it stays cold for a while in the western Carolinas and northern Georgia. CAD is the primary force in the western Carolinas, however in the eastern half, nor'easters can be a big influence, causing strong cold winds to pour down from the North and keeping this area cold as well. However, nor'easters are not as common along the Carolina coast as they are further North into the Northeast. Last but not least, lets head down to extreme southern Florida, specifically the Florida Keys, which should have near average temperatures. It should be quite pleasant in that part of the state throughout the entire Winter season, as far as temperatures are concerned. Now that the Eastern CONUS is covered, let's take a look at my total snowfall forecast on a local level (North Carolina and surrounding areas) ...  (*** click on the map to view it in detail ***) This region of the country is a rather interesting one to forecast for snowfall, especially given the fact that the geography of North Carolina is so diverse, and it plays a vital role in our weather. Here's a list of cities and regions sorted by their forecast total snowfall amounts: -------------------- Less Than 1" Southern SC (basically from Georgetown SC southward). 1-4" Santee-Cooper region of SC, Myrtle Beach SC, Wilmington NC, Cape Lookout NC. 4-8" Columbia SC, Florence SC, New Bern NC, Cape Hatteras NC. 8-12" Piedmont of SC, Sandhills of NC, Fayetteville NC, Greenville NC, Nags Head NC. 12-16" Northern Georgia, Anderson SC, Rock Hill SC, Charlotte NC, Raleigh NC, Elizabeth City NC. 16-20" Knoxville TN, Greenville/Spartanburg SC, the Triad of NC, Norfolk VA. 20-24" The Tri-Cities of TN, Asheville NC, foothills of NC, Richmond VA. 24-48" Mountains of NC and VA (amounts vary depending on location and elevation), Roanoke VA, Beckley WV. Greater Than 48" North of Roanoke VA and east of Beckley WV. -------------------- Even though I didn't depict it on this particular map, Mount Mitchell, which is located at the southern tip of the yellow shading, will most likely receive even more than the dark shading north of Roanoke VA, which should receive greater than 48 inches. One other thing I also didn't depict on this map is the possibility of additional snowfall for areas around the Outer Banks of NC. This region, if hit hard by nor'easters this Winter, may end up having the same, or even more, snowfall amounts as those living in areas such as the Piedmont of NC, and perhaps even the foothills. =========================================================================================== == Persimmon Seeds to Help Predict Type of Winter == ===========================================================================================  In this world full of high-tech weather models and advanced forecasting techniques, sometimes it is nice to also approach weather forecasting from a more natural perspective. I admit, going by signs in nature alone is not exactly the best and most accurate way to forecast the weather, but it is still wise to stop and take a look at what mother nature is trying to tell us. There is an old folklore that says that the seeds of a Persimmon can determine what kind of Winter we will have. To do this, you take some persimmons (ones that have already fell to the ground), take the seeds out of them, slice the seeds in half, and observe the shape inside of the seeds. You should see either a spoon, fork, or knife. Here is what you should expect your Winter to be like, depending on which shapes you see: Spoon = Cold and Snowy Fork = Mild and Dry Knife = VERY Cold and Icy It's best that you cut open at least 10 seeds, so that you can get a better overall sample of your results. =========================================================================================== What I've decided to do is to cut open Persimmon seeds once a week (every Sunday) and post my results here. There are many Persimmon trees around our house, so I will try to get samples from different ones. To view results from September, click HERE. To view results from October, click HERE. -- November 1, 2009 --  This is my third and final month of performing these seed observations. I may even have to quit before the end of this month, because I've been noticing that there are less and less persimmons on the ground now, and the seeds inside of the ones I do find are becoming harder to deal with, and a little harder to read as well. Anyway, in this particular batch, numbers 1, 2, 5, 7, and 10 all seem to be knives, albeit some of them are oddly shaped knives. Number 3 shows a spoon. I'm not completely certain about number 4, but I'm going to go with fork for that one. Looks like a bent fork, not sure though what that means weather-wise. Number 6 appears to be mostly a knife, but a somewhat transparent spoon shape is also present, but I will still go ahead and declare this one as a knife, since it's the more pronounced utensil shape. Numbers 8 and 9 also show some transparency in their own way. Both show mainly a spoon shape, but a sort of ghostly image of an even larger spoon is also visible. I have noticed this trend now for the past couple of weeks, of seeds showing more than one definite shape, and they are usually fairly large utensils. Perhaps this suggests that some big snowstorms and/or ice storms may occur during the Winter. According to this sample, our Winter may have a brief warm spell, but for the most part it should be extremely cold, with more ice than snow. Watch out for a few big storms this Winter. Perhaps a big snow and ice storm (suggested by number 6), and maybe a couple of big snowstorms (suggested by numbers 8 and 9). Next Sample Coming November 8, 2009... Stay Tuned!!! ===========================================================================================
Hope everyone out there has a very happy and safe Halloween! =DFor those who observe Daylight Saving Time, remember to turn your clocks back one hour before you go to bed tonight! Of the two times in the year that we change the clocks, this one is the "good" one, in the sense that we GAIN an extra hour of sleep! =D==========================================================================================================================================================...
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============================================================================================= Weather Forecast Across the Carolinas ==For Saturday:(map may take a few seconds to load)===========================================================================================My PWS (KNCLEXIN5) & Front Yard Webcam - Click HERE to view this cam live! ===========================================================================================Radar:========================...
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