Irene and Our Next Possible Threat For The U.S.
Bob's Official 2011 Tropical Atlantic Numbers:
16-18 Named Storms
7-9 Hurricanes
4-6 Major Hurricanes
Areas Most At Risk This Season:
1.)Eastern U.S Coastline
2.)Central and South Florida
3.)Northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Western Florida Panhandle.
2011 Atlantic Current Numbers:
10 Named Storm
1 Hurricanes
1 Major Hurricanes
Irene will be spreading her flooding rains across Upstate N.Y and New England today. As I said a few days ago Irene will be remembered for her flooding rains and not her winds, and that seems to be the case today. We could still see some winds gusting to near 50mph across Eastern New England and Eastern L.I this morning, but most winds gusts across New England will be below the 50mph threshold. Flooding rains will still be the case across this region today and we will have to see what kind of flooding we do get once rivers begin to crest in a few days. I outline the flood threat in the video above.
Well as Irene departs we again will turn our attention to the East off the African coast. This is where Invest 92L is located today. This will be our next system to track as it moves across the Eastern and Central Atlantic this week. Conditions are ripe for development of this system as we could see a TD or TS by mid-week. The long range forecast is conflicting between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS finds a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge created by an area of Low Pressure developing near Bermuda, and eventually tracks this system towards Bermuda and out to sea. The ECMWF on the other hand does not have a strong enough weakness and tracks this system farther West showing it just East of the Bahamas by Weds. Sept. 7th.. The pattern dictates that anything that does develop will want to, again, get close to the United States. It is way too early to tell if any of the Islands will be affected by this system.
We also have TS Jose out there just West of Bermuda. I have nothing to say about this system. I honestly can't believe they put a name on this. Oh well.
NHC Official Forecast Track Irene:
Hurricane Irene Satellite View:
Invest 92L Model Runs:
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Reader Comments
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+100 if I could!
You do very good work. Thanks lots!
HH
Bob, I hate the term, "East of the Bahamas". I think that is an areas that is not good news. I guess we once again we go into our wait and watch mode. Alot ot the season left......Thx
I was also surprised about Jose. The NHC likes to upgrade marginal systems within recon range, but typically they wait to see if farther-out systems persist before upgrading. A few hours is not my idea of "persistence".
I agree Hawk. In some ways the Northeast dodged a bullet, but I still believe the flooding is going to be a big problem in alot of areas. But all in all it could of been worse. That dry air really cut the precip off alittle earlier then it could of been.
Now we wait for Katia.
Know you're originally from the NE, hope your family made thru fine... Yes, coulda been lot worse, but bad enough as we'll see in another day or two when full extent of damages are assessed over the region... Just an incredibly broad, deep system, lucky (and inevitable) it drew in so much continental dry air / SW shear... LOL, seemed it remained in one long EWRC since it began, never consolidated...
Jose? LOL, prolly only since it's so close to Bermuda they couldn't choose to ignore it... But I agree, almost laughable... classing it a highly sheared TD would have been enough.
G'day!
My brother lives on Western L.I.. Alot, alot of trees down, they lost power for a bit last night, but thats about it, no flooding where he lives.
I have alot of friends on FB from N.J and CT and there is alot of river flooding.
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