abpw10 pgtw 190300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/190300z-190600zjun2013//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/190151zjun2013//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
a. Tropical cyclone summary:
(1) at 190000z, tropical storm 04w (leepi) was located near
21.4n 125.6e, approximately 329 nm south- southwestward of Kadena
AB, and had tracked north-northwestward at 10 knots over the past
six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 35
knots gusting to 45 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 190300) for
(2) no other tropical cyclones.
B. Tropical disturbance summary:
(1) an area of convection has persisted near 12.5n 115.4e,
approximately 600 nm south of Hong Kong. Animated multispectral
satellite imagery (msi) depicts a weak low-level circulation center
(LLCC) with a large area of disorganized-flaring deep convection. A
182229z SSMI microwave image indicates no discernible LLCC, however,
there are hints of fragmented banding over the southern semi-Circle
of the LLCC. A nearby ship report indicates 10 knot winds at 1003
mb. The system is located within a favorable environment of low (5
to 10 kts) vertical wind shear (vws) and warm (~30 deg celsius) sea
surface temperatures (ssts). Upper level analysis indicates good
divergence aloft. Enhanced animated water vapor imagery indicates
that poleward outflow may be enhanced by the presence of a TUTT cell
located to the northeast of the system. Dynamic models indicate that
the system will develop into a tropical depression within the next 2
to 3 days with a track meandering northward within the South China
Sea. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb.
Due to the large amount of increasing deep convection and proximity
to a TUTT cell to the northeast, the potential for the development
of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is
upgraded to medium.
(2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 1.B.(1) to