U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Konvektivereignisse)

Day Three

acus01 kwns 240044 
Storm Prediction Center ac 240043 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0743 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 

Valid 240100z - 241200z 

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening 
across parts of the central and southern High Plains... 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across 
surrounding areas of the plains... 

Thunderstorms may still be accompanied by some risk for severe hail 
and wind across parts of the central and Southern Plains this 

Even with significant lower/mid tropospheric cyclogenesis underway 
to the Lee of the Colorado rockies, and forecast to proceed through 
the remainder of tonight, dry conditions across much of the central 
and Southern Plains has and likely will continue to considerably 
temper convective potential. The lack of deep low-level moisture 
return off the western Gulf of Mexico, and downward mixing of dry 
lower/mid tropospheric air, has resulted in rather modest late 
afternoon/early evening warm sector surface dew points ranging 
mostly in the mid 40s to lower 50s f. 

Still, steep mid-level lapse rates associated with warm elevated 
mixed-layer air which has advected off the southern rockies/Mexican 
plateau region has contributed to sufficient instability for 
vigorous late afternoon storm development near the surface trough 
axis across the High Plains, from the Texas Panhandle into 
southwestern Nebraska. In the presence of strong shear near a 50-70 
kt southwesterly 500 mb speed maximum nosing across the Central High 
plains, strongest storms have produced severe hail and wind. It is 
possible that this activity could linger into the 01-03z time frame, 
before weakening as the boundary layer cools and decouples. 

Thereafter, it still seems possible that a zone of enhanced warm 
advection on the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet 
(50-70 kt at 850 mb) could maintain ongoing storms and support new 
development across parts of north central through northeastern 
Nebraska later this evening, with a continuing risk for severe hail. 

It is also possible that the leading edge of lower/mid tropospheric 
cooling spreading east of The Rockies through portions of the 
southern High Plains this evening could become a focus for renewed 
convective development accompanied by a continuing risk for strong 
surface gusts. As this forcing spreads eastward into the Lower 
Plains, severe convective wind gust potential probably will diminish 
as instability becomes insufficient to maintain vigorous convection. 

.Kerr.. 03/24/2017 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 240231 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 240231 

Mesoscale discussion 0316 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0931 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017 

Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and southwest Kansas 

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78... 

Valid 240231z - 240330z 

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78 

Summary...an evolving line of thunderstorms will continue to move 
east into the overnight. Although an isolated large hail or damaging 
wind gust will be possible, the overall severe weather threat should 
diminish with time. 

Discussion...a surface cold front will continue to accelerate east, 
overtaking a dryline across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The 
result will be a brief increase in thunderstorm intensity and 
coverage as low-level convergence increases, especially across the 
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. However, with time, weakening 
instability, increasing convective inhibition, and decreasing 
surface moisture to the east should result in an overall weakening 
thunderstorm trend. As such, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be 
allowed to expire. 

.Marsh/Thompson.. 03/24/2017 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 33620279 35750296 38120264 39140159 38980020 37049976 
35359971 34129983 33420005 32810096 32950241 33620279